Betting: Give Maye, Patriots the edge against depleted Jets secondary
Week 11 of the NFL season gets underway Thursday night with a matchup of AFC East rivals when the New York Jets visit the New England Patriots.
The Patriots, led by MVP favorite Drake Maye (+250), are riding a seven-game winning streak and sit atop the AFC East. The Jets have won their last two after dropping their first seven games.
The teams split the season series last year, with both teams winning at home. They will meet up again in Week 17 in New England.
The Patriots are the biggest favorite of the week, giving almost two touchdowns Thursday night.
Matt Bowen, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak and Seth Walder offer their picks, prop plays and analysis to help you bet the game.
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET Sportsbook.
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Game picks | Prop bets | Betting trends
Game bets
Jets team total UNDER 14.5 (-120)
Maldonado: This offense isn’t inconsistent, it’s broken. WIth Garrett Wilson out, the wide receiver room is producing two-catch, seven-yard afternoons. Justin Fields has athleticism but not the structure. Since Week 1, he is bottom five in yards per attempt, touchdown rate and passing efficiency. The Jets average the fewest explosive passing plays in the league, while the Patriots defense is elite against the run and disciplined in coverage. Trailing as a double-digit underdog only makes the flaws more pronounced. Sustained drives and multiple touchdowns feels unrealistic.
Notable player props, bets
Drake Maye to go OVER 234.5 passing yards (-115)
Moody: Maye has eclipsed this line in five of his last six games, and he hasn’t been held under 203 passing yards all season. The Jets just traded away two of their best defensive players, and they have not recorded a single interception this season. The Patriots will lean heavily on Maye and the passing game with their backfield banged up, putting the QB in a strong position to clear this number.
Breece Hall to go OVER 16.5 rush attempts (+115)
Moody: Hall has surpassed this line in two straight games, and the Jets have won both. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ran 21 times for 113 yards against the Patriots last week, and it would be wise for the Jets to use a similar approach to try to keep New England’s offense off the field. With Garrett Wilson ruled out due to a knee injury, the Jets should lean heavily on Hall, one of their top playmakers.
Stefon Diggs to score Anytime TD (+140)
Bowen: Diggs has scored in three straight games, with at least one red zone target in each. On Thursday night, against the Jets secondary — now minus Sauce Gardner — Diggs will have opportunities on isolation routes in scoring position. Let’s bet on Diggs to find the end zone.
Hunter Henry to score Anytime TD (+145)
Moody: Maye’s mobility keeps defenses off balance, which bodes well for Henry in the red zone, especially with Austin Hooper ruled out. Henry has nine red zone targets this season, seventh-most among tight ends. The Patriots should be able to score plenty of touchdowns in this matchup, and the Jets defense has already allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends this year.
Kyle Williams to go OVER 1.5 receptions (-105)
Solak: Williams housed his one reception against the Buccaneers for 72 yards and a score, and taking his receiving yards total (20.5) is accordingly tempting. But perhaps more significant was his route participation, as he ran a route on 17 dropbacks, the clear WR3 above Demario Douglas (10 routes). With Kayshon Boutte out another week and against a bad Jets team that may create garbage time opportunities, I like the Patriots to give their rookie speedster an increased role.
K’Lavon Chaisson to go OVER 0.5 sacks (+170)
Walder: Chaisson’s sack over has been a frequent target of my game-level sacks model, and while the odds are shorter now than they’ve been in recent weeks, a Chaisson sack is much more likely than usual in this contest for one simple reason: Justin Fields. The Jets quarterback has been a career sack magnet and is taking sacks at an elevated 11% clip this year. What if Aaron Glenn switches it up and puts in Tyrod Taylor? He, too, has taken sacks at an above-average rate in recent seasons. Just to be sure, I checked my model’s output if Taylor were the starter. Even then, it still liked Chaisson’s over (just less). Regardless of who the starter is, the Patriots are heavily favored, and that helps Chaisson’s chances.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
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The Jets have covered their last three times as underdogs (4-1 ATS in their last five as underdogs). The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five as favorites.
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The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. Four straight Patriots games have gone over the total.
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The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 home meetings against the Jets, including an outright win as 7.5-point underdogs last season.
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Home favorites of at least seven points are 0-4 ATS in Thursday games this season.
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