Betting ‘SNF’: Why we like the under, C.J. Stroud to have to throw and Nico Collins in DFS

Bowen’s recommendations

Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Nico Collins ($14,700) has seen 10 or more targets in five of his past six games with at least 90 yards receiving in three. He’s a consistent and dependable option in the Texans’ route tree. Smart play in any matchup.

Also in my lineup: Travis Kelce ($8,800) has a touchdown reception in three of his past five games, and we know he can uncover late in the down on second-reaction throws from Patrick Mahomes. Find open grass here. And that leads to explosive-play receptions.

Loza’s recommendations

Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Mahomes ($16,200). Houston has an elite defense, but Mahomes still has that magic. He ranks in the top five in passing yards and passing scores and averages 29 rushing yards per game (QB13). With the Texans sending pressure, I expect Mahomes to pick up some extra points via the ground.

Also in my lineup: Dalton Schultz ($5,400) is a solid volume play at a reduced cost. He has drawn at least eight looks in four of his past five games, working as an essential safety valve over the middle. C.J. Stroud should look to him frequently with the Chiefs’ pass rush attacking regularly.

Maldonado’s recommendations

Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Rashee Rice ($16,500). He is the volume anchor. He avoids Houston’s elite boundary coverage, lives in the slot, owns massive red zone equity and has the safest path to receptions in a low-scoring game.

Also in my lineup: Collins ($9,800). He is Houston’s entire passing heartbeat, commanding double-digit targets and producing even when the offense is stale. Collins is the last working flashlight in a power outage; everything else around him is fading, but he stays bright because he has to.

Moody’s recommendations

Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Collins ($14,700) enters this game with momentum, surpassing 75 yards in four of his past five games while averaging 9.8 targets per outing. Houston will need him in this high-stakes matchup with the Chiefs. His volume, paired with elite efficiency, makes him an appealing DFS play, even against a tough Kansas City secondary.

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Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their past four games, tied for the longest-active ATS losing streak in the NFL.

• The Chiefs are 1-7 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

• Unders are 9-3 in Texans games this season, tied for the highest under rate in the NFL. Unders are 6-1 in the Chiefs’ past seven games.