3 Draft Picks to Avoid (2025 Fantasy Football)
NFL.com’s official rankings were (and still are) all over the place, with tons of players multiple rounds away from their consensus rankings. So far, the site’s ADP has provided similar discrepancies. Today, I’ll identify three of the most overpriced players in that early ADP compared to ECR. These ADPs are so egregious that you can essentially cross the following players off your board entirely heading into NFL.com drafts.
Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid
Jonnu Smith (TE – PIT) | ADP: 73.9/ECR: 132
It’s very easy to see why this ADP is the way it is. If you’re locked into the NFL’s offseason news cycle, Jonnu Smith being traded to the Steelers already feels like ancient history. Three weeks have passed since that move was announced, more than enough time for ECR to have adjusted.
Unsurprisingly, Smith’s rank has plummeted in his new circumstances, as he will no longer benefit from the PPR scam Mike McDaniel calls an offense. But ADP is usually not as quick to react. This is especially true when a site’s default rankings haven’t been adjusted, which seems to be the case for NFL.com: Smith is still the 82nd overall player in their rankings.
The result of this slow adjustment is a truly absurd price for Smith. I’m slightly more bullish on him in Pittsburgh than the consensus, holding out hope for his ability to be a backend TE1 in Arthur Smith’s offense. But I’m certainly nowhere near as optimistic as the 60-pick gap between his ADP and ECR.
Of course, if you’re in a relatively sharp league, Smith will likely fall farther than his early seventh-round ADP. But unless your league is full of die-hard fantasy players — which I doubt is the case for many NFL.com leagues — one manager is eventually going to scoop the “value” well before his 11th-round ECR. With that in mind, there’s not much else to say. Just make sure that person isn’t you.
James Cook (RB – BUF) | ADP: 29.3/ECR: 44
NFL.com’s ADP sees essentially all running backs fly off the board well before their consensus rankings. This means that, unless you are willing to fully commit to a true Zero RB strategy, you’re going to have to “overpay” for an early-round back or two. However, not all overpriced running backs are created equal. James Cook is massively overpriced both in a vacuum and compared to his fellow ball-carriers.
Starting with the obvious, Cook’s overall ADP is over a full round ahead of his ECR, a massive difference this early in drafts. But his positional ADP is also an outlier: Experts have him ranked as the RB16, while NFL.com managers are drafting him as the RB12.
It’s easy to see why managers are tempted to take Cook as a backend RB1. He finished last year as the RB8 overall and RB11 in PPR points per game. Now that it has been confirmed he won’t hold out despite wanting a new contract, he is essentially locked into the same situation and role he had last season.
The issue is that the role Cook had last season wasn’t as fantasy-friendly as his results would indicate. Yes, he was the lead back on an elite offense. But he wasn’t exactly a workhorse. He played fewer than half of the Bills’ offensive snaps in his healthy games, with just a 48% snap rate. His 45% rushing attempt share ranked 25th among running backs with at least 10 games.
Even if we remove Josh Allen from the equation, his 58% running back rush share ranked just 19th. His 7.7% target share was also mediocre, ranking 35th among backs. In total, Cook’s opportunities were worth a 17.9% share of Buffalo’s expected fantasy points, 24th among running backs.
If his usage was more like that of a backend RB2, how did Cook put up RB1 numbers? The answer is simple: Touchdowns. Cook tied for the league lead with 16 rushing touchdowns and added two more through the air for good measure. Any running back who runs that hot on touchdowns is almost certainly due for regression. That’s especially true for Cook, who is far from an elite goal-line back. He handled fewer than 50% of Buffalo’s carries inside the 5-yard line in 2024 and only scored two touchdowns in the season prior despite playing essentially the same role in Buffalo’s offense.
At the end of the day, Cook is a dynamic young back with the ability to contribute through the air and on the ground. But his usage is nowhere near that of a top-12 fantasy back. Drafting him at this ADP is betting that his outlier 2024 efficiency, especially on the touchdown front, continues. That’s not a bet I want to make, especially with players like Jayden Daniels, Breece Hall and Tee Higgins likely still on the board.
Derrick Henry (RB – BAL) | ADP: 10.4/ECR: 22
A lot of what I just said about Cook also applies to Derrick Henry. His ADP is elevated above his ECR because all early-round running backs are priced up. But he is also overpriced within running back fantasy football rankings, being selected as the fourth back off the board ahead of his RB7 ECR. Put those two things together, and we have a player who is being selected an absurd 72% earlier than he “should” be.
One thing that separates Henry from Cook is that, although he also tied for the league lead with 16 rushing touchdowns, that number isn’t necessarily due for regression. Henry also plays for an elite offense with an MVP-level quarterback at the helm. But he’s called King Henry for a reason — he led all running backs with a dominant 91% share of the Ravens’ goal-line carries.
Instead, the issue with Henry’s usage is more straightforward. With a measly 4.4% target share (1.2 targets per game), he is barely involved as a receiver in Baltimore’s offense. That’s especially an issue in NFL.com’s default full PPR format. To provide elite fantasy numbers with a negligible receiving role, Henry has to provide flawless volume and efficiency on the ground.
Last year, along with tying for the league lead in rushing touchdowns, he ranked second only to Saquon Barkley‘s historic season in both rushing attempts and rushing yards. He bested even Barkley in yards per carry. That’s essentially a best-case scenario, and he still finished as “just” the RB4 in PPR, exactly where NFL.com managers are now selecting him.
Heading into 2025, it’s hard to see Henry besting last year’s finish. And if the 31-year-old regresses even slightly, his receiving-deficient profile is vulnerable to a sharp fantasy decline. He’s still a valid pick as an RB1, but by drafting him as the RB4 (and 10th overall player), NFL.com managers are elevating him above De’Von Achane, Christian McCaffrey and Ashton Jeanty.
I would easily rather have all three of those backs in full PPR, and that’s not to mention that Henry is going ahead of wide receiver studs like Malik Nabers and Amon-Ra St. Brown. As much as I love King Henry, the prudent move is to let him reign in someone else’s NFL.com lineup this season.
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