NFL analytics expert Warren Sharp previews 2024 season
The NFL returns next week, and we all can’t wait to see how the season will unfold. There are many unknowns, and every fan hopes their team will exceed expectations. Will the Kansas City Chiefs three-peat? Will the Philadelphia Eagles bounce back? Will Caleb Williams live up to the hype? We caught up with Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis to get smarter about the upcoming season.
His 2024 Football Preview is a deep dive into the data for all 32 franchises and what the numbers could tell us about the 2024 season.
To order a digital copy of his book, visit here.
Note: This interview has been edited and condensed for length and clarity.
Awful Announcing: How do you assess the Chiefs’ three-peat chances?
Warren Sharp: “I’m bullish on their chances. Last year, they ranked below average in efficiency on early downs. I don’t think that’s happening again. Last year, they scored the 27th most points on early downs. I don’t think that’s happening again. Last year, they ranked dead last in air yards (5.2) per pass attempt. Not only was that last in the NFL, but it was the lowest for any team since 2006. I don’t think that’s happening again. Last year, they scored the fifth-fewest points in the second half of any team in the league.
“They understood what their weaknesses were, and they addressed them. They added Marquise Brown and drafted Xavier Worthy. The thing that could hold them back is their offensive line. I think it’s a little thin. Their defense lost a couple of guys, but I have faith in Steve Spagnuolo. I have faith in this offense under Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to get a lot better. I think this team is more dangerous this year by a significant margin.”
Will the Eagles bounce back after their memorable collapse?
“If you look at some of the statistics year over year from the 2022 Super Bowl offense to last year’s offense, they were getting to the line of scrimmage a lot slower. They were snapping the ball a lot slower. Jalen Hurts was holding the ball longer but throwing it shorter. There were a lot of things that didn’t make a whole lot of sense with that passing attack. It ended up causing some issues with Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts. This year, they brought in an offensive coordinator from outside the building. They brought a defensive coordinator in from outside the building. I think they’re going to have a higher attention to detail. The Eagles are talented enough. If they get good enough play calling, they’re going to win the NFC East.”
Xavier Worthy TD! 🏈⚡️pic.twitter.com/wVNE86atss
— The Comeback (@thecomeback) August 17, 2024
If you exclude the Eagles, the 49ers, and the Lions, what other team could win the NFC?
“The easy answer for me to tell you would be the Dallas Cowboys, but that’s not a fun answer. I think the Cowboys are somewhat of a fragile team. It would be somebody who is a little bit more upstart that would have to get a lot better. So, I would look at a team like the Bears or the Seahawks. Maybe the Packers as opposed to a team with a pedigree that’s accustomed to winning more (regular-season) games like the Cowboys.”
Of the big-name running backs who switched teams, who is in the best position to succeed?
“Derrick Henry is going to face potentially more light boxes this year than last year in Tennessee. Tennessee did not have creative offensive play calling, and defenses loaded the box. The No.1 priority was to take away Derrick Henry. Well, in Baltimore, this team plays more of a spread style of offense that generates lighter boxes. That’s going to benefit Derrick Henry. Now, if defenses try to load the box and slow him down, then Lamar (Jackson) should be trying to pass more in those situations. Lamar Jackson was the No.1 quarterback in the NFL last year in passing the football if the box was light. That’s going to bode well for the offense in general.”
How good will Caleb Williams be?
“The great part about Caleb Williams is that this team was built to pick a good quarterback. They’ve improved their offensive line. They don’t have a top-ten running back, but you don’t need one to have success in the NFL. They added these receivers who complement one another in such a fascinating manner. D.J. Moore is excellent against man coverage. He ranked No.4 amongst wide receivers last year in yards per route run against man coverage but was much worse against zone. Meanwhile, Keenan Allen ranked 10th best against zone but much worse against man. Then you add Rome Odunze. Their receiving corps is very well-balanced and pieced together nicely. Watching them on Hard Knocks, it seems like they’ve got a good support system there to help ensure that Caleb Williams is having success.”
Caleb Williams with an incredible throw to Rome Odunze! 🏈💣🎯pic.twitter.com/FF3cZgyQc9
— The Comeback (@thecomeback) August 17, 2024
Who will be an impact non-quarterback rookie on offense?
“One I’ll throw out there that could surprise is Brian Thomas Jr. When I look at the Jacksonville Jaguars, I think there’s a good chance this team finishes in third place in that division. Why is this good for a wide receiver? I think they’re going to have to pass the football a ton this season.
“This is crazy. (Former Jaguars receiver) Calvin Ridley had 41% of their red-zone targets. That was any pass thrown inside the red zone. That was the most in the NFL, and it was the most since Brandon Marshall in 2012. I think the Jaguars will be passing more because they’re going to be trailing in their games more. Where are these passes going to? There’s a good chance the rookie gets a lot of those.”
Which defensive rookie will make an impact?
“Byron Murphy II up in Seattle. I’ve seen some of his preseason film. It looks great. I don’t have any sexy eye-opening statistics to share with you. I love the coach there in Seattle. Mike Macdonald came from Baltimore, where he was the defense coordinator. (Seattle) had one pick in the top 80 picks, and they used it on this kid. They were fortunate to get Byron Murphy II. He was projected to go inside the top 10, but what ended up happening is the Falcons drafted Michael Penix Jr., and then the Vikings wanted J.J. McCarthy. They went up and got him. So, suddenly you’re seeing Byron Murphy drop. I think Seattle was super stoked to get him. They are going to have a lot of great packages for him.”
Are the Cowboys going to take a step back?
“The Dallas Cowboys have been able to win games for several years now (in part) because their defense has recorded an unsustainable number of takeaways. Their team ranks plus-10 in turnover margin for three straight years. I went back to the last 30 years. There were only eight teams in 30 years that were able to go for three years in a row with a plus-10 turnover margin. None of those eight teams in the fourth year, which is what Dallas is entering, had a plus-10 turnover margin or better in that fourth year. All these teams regressed. Takeaways are the No.1 factor in winning or losing games. If the Cowboys get fewer takeaways, I think this defense is going to regress, and I think their team overall is going to regress. I don’t see them falling far. I still view them as having a winning record, and probably making the playoffs. But I do not expect them to win the NFC East.”
some VERY SCARY questions for 31 teams
look out 👀 pic.twitter.com/5UgcFm4XC3
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 17, 2024
What do you make of the New York Jets?
“What makes the Jets even more appealing now is just when you look around the rest of their division. There are issues with the Dolphins—O-line and defense. They have struggled to win the big games. They’ve struggled to win in the colder games. You look at the Buffalo Bills. They’ve got a thin receiving corps. They’ve already had some serious injuries on the defensive side of the ball, including Matt Milano. By process of elimination, somebody’s got to be able to take a step forward.
“With the New York Jets, it’s remarkable how Robert Saleh has gotten his team to win seven games each year. It doesn’t sound like a lot. They’ve had probably the worst quarterback play in the NFL over those two years. Yet, the most impressive thing is this defense keeps fighting. If Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy, I think his offense will be substantially better. This team definitely will be in the talk down the stretch for the AFC East.”
If you had to draft an NFL play-by-play announcer and analyst, who would be your top picks?
“Kevin Harlan for play-by-play. To me, that’s a no-brainer. The guy is amazing, and I love the enthusiasm and energy that he brings to the table. A color commentator? That’s more difficult.
“I like Greg Olsen. For a while, Tony Romo was giving a little bit more insight. Greg Olsen is fascinating to me. He provides a lot of that, and I appreciate that.”
What’s your Super Bowl prediction?
“Chiefs over Lions. Last year’s Chiefs had a minus-11 turnover margin and minus-23 penalty margin, becoming the only team since 2000 to make the playoffs with such poor marks. They won the Super Bowl despite all of that. This offense should be much better, and the rest of the upper echelon of the AFC is more flawed than they were in 2023. Lions were close last year, but with slight defensive improvement and offensive consistency, they take the next step of making the Super Bowl.”
