NFL Week 6 picks against the spread: Taking CeeDee Lamb’s advice about perseverance

Read The Athletic’s NFL Week 7 picks against the spread. 

It was another wild and wacky week in the NFL. The Buffalo Bills lost after they threw the ball three times rather than run it once and take their shot in overtime. The Cincinnati Bengals also made some horrific coaching decisions and lost a game they led the whole way and fell to 1-4. The Kansas City Chiefs love to show off — they signed Kareem Hunt and JuJu Smith-Schuster off the street and made them key players in their offense on national TV to go 5-0.

The New York Jets, Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders are masochistic, plain and simple.

Players, coaches, fans and prediction columnists have taken to both yelling and muttering under their breath. Dallas Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb said something to Dak Prescott after an interception last week and luckily there were a lot of licensed lip readers on social media. “Jump ball, 4” and “subpar throw” were the best guesses.

Lamb could have told reporters that it was none of their business when asked afterward, but instead he lied.

“I told him, perseverance, that’s all we need at QB,” Lamb said.

As for me, I don’t need lip-readers. Or finger readers. I stink. We’ve had an awful two weeks, though the Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers were the right sides and should have been best-bet winners.

But we’re going to take our guy Lamb’s advice. Like him, we had a slow start last year too (his 378 yards this year are actually 20 more than he had after five games last season).

Per-se-ver-ance. (Or just severance if we don’t turn things around.)

Last week’s record: 2-12 against the spread, 1-4 on best bets.

Season record: 27-49-2 against the spread, 7-16-2 on best bets.

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

The 49ers blew another lead last week, while the Seahawks totally looked past the Giants at home. (In a year of bad coaching league-wide, Seattle only handing the ball to Kenneth Walker III five times in a game is pretty special.) The Seahawks will be better here, but they can’t stop the run. Jordan Mason should have a big night and help open things up for Brock Purdy. Purdy has completed the most tight-window throws (defender less than 1 yard away on arrival of the pass) with 14 and has attempted the second most with 38. (The 36.8 completion percentage ranks 11th.) It’s also a good sign for the Niners that Brandon Aiyuk is finally rounding into shape. The Seahawks also have good receivers, but what’s going on with DK Metcalf? He ranks 58th among 61 qualified WRs with 0.5 EPA per reception rate. The 49ers defense is banged up, and I think Walker and Metcalf take advantage to keep this one very close.

The pick: Seahawks 

The Jaguars got their first win of the season last week and now go “home” to London for two straight games. Trevor Lawrence is starting to play better, and the infusion of Brian Thomas Jr. and Tank Bigsby is helping. Thomas reached a top speed of 22.15 mph on last week’s 85-yard TD reception, the fastest speed by a ball carrier this season. Bigsby leads the league with a 0.17 EPA per rush rate and ranks No. 1 in rushing yards gained over expectancy rate with a 4.24-yard average. The Jaguars might need a lot of points, as their defense ranks 31st in defensive EPA per play (-0.13), EPA per pass (-0.27) and defensive points allowed per game (28.2), while Caleb Williams is coming off his best game of the season. No matter. This is the week of the home dog (even if Jacksonville isn’t technically the home team in this one), and the Jaguars improve to 7-5 in London.

The pick: Jaguars 

GO DEEPER

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You ever jump onto a moving train? Me neither. You see it all the time in the movies, and while it looks scary, people always barely make it. I am a big chicken and wouldn’t jump — that’s why I keep going against the Commanders (and Rookie of the Year/MVP Jayden Daniels). That train has left the station and is moving fast — they have won and covered the spread in four straight games, and there is no value in trying to jump on board now. Last week, the Commanders defense even showed up. Frankie Luvu had 2 1/2 sacks, eight splash plays and produced the highest pressure rate in a single game with a 50 percent rate, while old man Bobby Wagner had 1 1/2 sacks and a 40 percent pressure rate. The Ravens may even be in a flat spot, coming off an overtime win against the Bengals. But … still chicken

The pick: Ravens 

I thought the Cardinals were plucky and then they got blown out by the Commanders. OK, they’re bad. Then they beat the 49ers. And they did it without getting anything from Marvin Harrison Jr. The rookie’s reception percentage dropped to 48.6 (59th among 61 qualified WRs), while his separation rate is last in the league (1.90-yard average). The Packers don’t have a very good pass defense, but I am going with them. They won last week despite Jordan Love being terrible, and he’ll be better this week, while the Cardinals won’t be able to slow down Josh Jacobs either. Hats off to the wise guys, though. This is a tough number to crack.

The pick: Packers 

You gotta love the national media. All year long, they have been making kale faces at the Patriots, saying how bad Jacoby Brissett is. This week, the Patriots finally make the move and switch to rookie Drake Maye … and everybody screams. Not this week! Not with that offensive line against the Texans’ defense! Nooooo! Relax. First, Maye can actually run away from people and let it rip, unlike Brissett. Second, the Texans are a flawed team. They can’t run the ball (and Joe Mixon may still be out), they just lost their best receiver in Nico Collins and they lead the league with 47 accepted penalties. The Texans’ four wins have come by an average of four points and they’re coming off a last-second win over the Bills. Take the points.

The pick: Patriots 

We can’t pick all home teams. With Derek Carr hurt, the Saints will turn to their seventh starting quarterback since Drew Brees retired, and Spencer Rattler will be in for some tough sledding. Vita Vea and a tough run defense will make it hard for RB Alvin Kamara to help much, while the Bucs’ secondary will be baiting Rattler into mistakes. Cornerback Zyon McCollum leads all defensive backs (minimum 100 pass coverage snaps) with 15 splash plays, while safety Jordan Whitehead ranks tied for second with 14. Rattler will also be hurried, as their offensive line is beat up. Even first-round pick Taliese Fuaga is suddenly struggling. He went from having a 0.0 percent pressure rate after Week 2 to being the second worst left tackle at 8.1 percent. The Chiefs just had a league-high 57.9 percent pressure rate against the Saints on Monday night.

The pick: Buccaneers

Embattled Eagles coach Nick Sirianni gets a break here, coming off a bye and going against the worst quarterback in the league. The Browns can’t cut or bench Deshaun Watson because they owe him too much money, so they roll out the 596th-rated quarterback in total QB EPA (-73.3) since TruMedia started charting that in 2007. That’s out of 596 quarterbacks. The Browns also can’t run the ball, so an underwhelming Eagles defense has a chance to show out. It also looks like the Eagles offense will get A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson back. The Eagles wouldn’t be favored by this many points over 595 other quarterbacks the last 17 years, but …

The pick: Eagles

GO DEEPER

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Anthony Richardson was throwing on the run at Wednesday’s practice, and the Colts have said he will start if able. Never mind that Joe Flacco leads the NFL with a 115.6 passer rating and ranks second in EPA per dropback at 0.23, better than Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. That’s a little better than Will Levis’ 72.8 passer rating — he might be back for the Titans as his banged-up shoulder is getting better. That is good news for Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, who has come under fire but should be able to stack the box against RB Tony Pollard. Neither team gets much pressure on the quarterback, so we’ll go with the Colts, whoever the quarterback is.

The pick: Colts 

GO DEEPER

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Bo Nix showed us a little something last week. Not only did he yell back at coach Sean Payton, but he didn’t turn the ball over and outplayed Gardner Minshew II (not the highest bar, but still …). Nix still can’t make a lot of the throws you would like from your QB, but he’s got moxie. That won’t be enough against a team that had an extra week to prepare for him and should get safety Derwin James Jr. back from a one-game suspension (though he missed Wednesday’s practice for personal reasons). The Chargers are also getting tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt back on offense, which is big against a surprising Broncos pass rush. Maybe Justin Herbert can finally stop holding the Chargers back. That was a joke. I think …(Herbert ranks 25th in EPA per dropback with a -0.08 rate.)

The pick: Chargers 

On Tuesday, we didn’t know who was playing quarterback for either team. Now, it looks like Justin Fields will take on Aidan O’Connell as the Steelers might wait another week before giving a now-healthy Russell Wilson a shot. Plus, it makes for an interesting Fields/Luke Getsy matchup, after the Bears moved on from both the QB and offensive coordinator this offseason and the Raiders chose Getsy over Fields to lead their offense. Neither the Steelers nor Raiders can run the ball, but the Raiders defense keeps crumbling, and this week it lost defensive tackle Christian Wilkins to a foot injury. The Steelers, meanwhile, rank No. 1 in defensive total rush EPA (24.90) and are tied with the Vikings for the fewest rushing TDs allowed (one). Meanwhile, T.J. Watt just became the second-fastest player to reach 100 sacks. He did it in 109 games, while Hall of Fame Reggie White did it in 96 games. The Raiders’ Maxx Crosby has 57 sacks in 87 games.

The pick: Steelers 

Kirk Cousins is a magician, because the Falcons could easily be 0-5. He is enjoying the third-best start of his career (and best since 2021) with an EPA per dropback rate of 0.14 (seventh-best in the league). And there’s no reason that should slip against a Panthers defense that can’t rush the QB or cover receivers. The Falcons are coming off an emotional win and also don’t rush the passer well, so Andy Dalton might be able to get you the cover here. He is no Flacco, but this geezer gets rid of the ball at the fastest rate in the league with a time to throw average of 2.52 seconds. He wasn’t accurate, though, against the Bears last week — in a game in which the Panthers went to 2023 No. 1 pick Bryce Young late to protect Dalton from getting hurt in the blowout. Man, this league is nuts. So, yeah, give me the Panthers — one of their two wins last season came against the Falcons — and the points.

The pick: Panthers

Jared Goff is coming off an 18-for-18 performance and a week off. The Cowboys will likely be without star pass rusher Micah Parsons again. Lions pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson, meanwhile, still leads the league by 11 pressures (with 40) despite playing one less game. That being said, we’re taking Lamb and the home underdogs to cover. The Lions’ young secondary is vulnerable — Terrion Arnold leads the league in pass interference penalties with five and Carlton Davis ranks tied for second with three — and Prescott (38-30 against the spread at home) builds off last week’s game-winning drive against the Steelers. The Prescott narrative is the biggest roller coaster in the NFL, and people will be singing his praises Monday before tearing him to shreds in January.

The pick: Cowboys 

My MVP pick Josh Allen has fallen back to earth, and if Patrick Mahomes doesn’t dink-and-dunk his way to another one, I have another name for you. Joe Burrow is currently at 15-to-1 odds, per BetMGM. Burrow had five touchdowns last week and is completing 72 percent of his passes with an EPA per dropback of 0.21. If he leads the Bengals back from 1-4 to the playoffs (and if Mahomes and the Chiefs ever lose), Burrow just might come back and win the award. That would require his coach never again calling three straight running plays like he did in overtime last week, and Burrow’s talented receivers shredding a bad Giants secondary this week. Daniel Jones not playing lights out for a second straight game would also help. That seems like a safer bet than Burrow for MVP.

The pick: Bengals 

GO DEEPER

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Allen can’t be stopped by what looked like a concussion against the Texans, but the loss of Khalil Shakir was too much to overcome for a team short on receivers (Davante Adams, anyone?). Shakir worked off to the side at practice Wednesday and his status for Sunday is unknown. It may not matter, as the Jets are getting the new coach boost. Robert Saleh was fired when Aaron Rodgers seemingly saved his buddy, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, from getting demoted. No one is saying Saleh is a good head coach (he is a great defensive coordinator), but the reason the Jets are 2-3 is because Rodgers has a -0.09 EPA per dropback rate, an 81.6 passer rating and a -18.2 total QB EPA. The Bills defense is down some important guys, though, and the Jets can probably win by just handing Breece Hall and Braelon Allen the ball.

The pick: Jets 

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Best bets: We’re taking the red-hot Jaguars over the Bears, the Panthers to keep it close against the Falcons and the Jets to win at home against the Bills. That’s three of the whopping nine home underdogs this week. Our last two best bets are teams coming off byes, the Eagles over the Browns and the Chargers over the Broncos.

Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): It’s the year of the rookie quarterback. How can we not take Drake Maye and the Patriots (+7, +260 on the moneyline) to shock the visiting Texans?

— TruMedia research courtesy of The Athletic’s Larry Holder. 

(Top photo of CeeDee Lamb: Mark Alberti / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)