2025 NFL TNF Week 1 betting – Cowboys-Eagles odds, picks
The NFL season begins with a classic NFL East rivalry, as the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles host the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night.
The Eagles started last season 2-2 but rattled off 10 straight wins following their Week 5 bye and only suffered one more loss the rest of the way en route to their second Super Bowl victory in eight years.
As for the Cowboys, things didn’t go quite as planned, especially against the reigning champs. The Eagles swept the season series, outscoring the Cowboys 75-13 in the process. To add injury to insult, Dak Prescott suffered a hamstring injury in Week 9 against another feathered team in Atlanta and missed the rest of the season.
But it’s a new season, and everything is relative when it comes to betting. From odds and trends to picks, props and analysis from our experts, here’s everything you need to help make your decisions at the betting window.
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET.
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Game picks | Prop bets | Betting trends
Game bets
Eagles -7.5 (-120) , OVER +47.5 (-110)
Matt Bowen: The Eagles averaged 187.3 rushing yards per game in 2024, and I don’t see the script changing versus the Cowboys on Thursday night. Behind the league’s best offensive line — featuring two unicorn bookends in tackles Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata — the Eagles use a run-heavy approach with Saquon Barkley to dictate the tempo of the game.
ESPN Analytics projection: Eagles by 7.4 (68.7% chance to win)
Cowboys +8.5 (-115)
Eric Moody: The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles deserve to be favored, but this spread feels inflated after the Micah Parsons trade pushed the line from -6.5 to -7.5, with it eventually reaching -8.5. The loss of Parsons is significant, but he didn’t have a major impact against Philadelphia last season, and Dallas added Kenny Clark in the trade to bolster its run defense. With Dak Prescott healthy and throwing to one of the league’s top receiver duos in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, the Cowboys should keep this game closer than the spread suggests.
Notable player props, bets
Saquon Barkley OVER 18.5 rushing attempts (-110)
Bowen: Barkley averaged 21.6 rushing attempts per game last season, and he also recorded 10 games with 20 or more attempts. Given the offensive approach I expect to see from Philly on Thursday night, I’d bet on Barkley to close this game out on the ground.
Clay’s projection: 21 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD
0:34
Eagles CBs to be tested vs. Cowboys
Jason McCourty explains why covering George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb will be a challenge for the Eagles.
CeeDee Lamb OVER 72.5 receiving yards (-115)
Eric Moody: Lamb averaged 10.5 targets and 82.5 receiving yards per game in the eight games Prescott played last season. This line feels low, even with Pickens now in the mix. The Cowboys are likely to be in plenty of shootouts this year, and their running game doesn’t project as a strength. Even though the Eagles allowed the fewest passing yards in the league last season, Lamb’s target volume and game script should put him in position to surpass this prop.
Clay’s projection: 7 receptions, 88 yards
George Pickens longest reception OVER 23.5 yards (-115)
Ben Solak: Pickens went over this number in 11 of the 14 games he played last season, and that was with Justin Fields and Russell Wilson at quarterback. Now he has Prescott. That’s a significant improvement. And he won’t see CB1 coverage nearly as much with CeeDee on the other side of the formation. The Eagles’ CB2 position is the weakest part of their defense, as nobody knows yet for sure who will start — veteran Adoree’ Jackson, young Kelee Ringo, recent trade acquisition Jakorian Bennett? Prescott has always been comfortable throwing to X receivers in isolated man coverage even when they’re covered, and Pickens is elite at the catch point. On a trailing game script, this makes too much sense.
Clay’s projection: 4 receptions, 63 yards
Saquon Barkley OVER 2.5 receptions (+160)
Solak: You can also take over 1.5 receptions at -180, but it’s opening kickoff — let’s live a little! Former Chicago Bears head coach Matt Eberflus is the new defensive coordinator in Dallas, and his defensive style — tons of soft zone coverage — encourages RB targets. Backs facing the Bears during Eberflus’ tenure were fourth in the league in catch rate and fourth in the league in targets per route run. Barkley is certainly scary on the ground, but if Dallas is loading the box and gumming up the Eagles’ rushing attack, look for Philly to get Barkley going with a couple of designed plays through the air.
Clay’s projection: 3 receptions, 23 yards
SGP: KaVontae Turpin anytime TD and Cowboys D/ST over 0.5 TDs (+3025)
Seth Walder: If Turpin returns a kick or punt for a touchdown, that should trigger both legs of this parlay. And I think there’s a new variable working in our favor: the touchback rule change. This season, touchbacks on kickoffs move out from the 30-yard-line to the 35-yard-line. It’s possible that could dramatically reduce the touchback rate (64% last season) and therefore dramatically increase the number of returns.
Which would in turn increase any kick returner’s chances of scoring a touchdown in a game. But Turpin is also not any kick returner — he’s arguably the best in the league. Last year Turpin recorded 292 kick return yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats — almost double any other player (Austin Ekeler was second at 151).
Jalyx Hunt UNDER 0.5 sacks (-150)
Walder: Hunt is in line for a seriously increased role after Josh Sweat left in free agency. But even if I manually adjust Hunt’s past playing time to mirror Sweat’s from last season, my model still thinks the fair price on the under is -221, making this bet a value. Hunt had just an 8% pass-rush win rate last season, roughly half of what one would expect from a starter at edge.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
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Philadelphia went 11-6 against the spread last season with seven of its games going over the total. Dallas was 7-10 ATS and had 11 games hit the over.
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The Eagles are 5-1 ATS against division opponents since 2024.
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The Cowboys are 7-13 ATS in their last 20 games as underdog.
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