2025 NFL Week 2 betting – Thursday Night Football: Commanders-Packers odds, picks
Week 2 of the NFL season gets underway with a Thursday night matchup between the Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.
Both teams are coming off Week 1 rivalry wins, with the Commanders disposing of the New York Giants and the Packers shutting down the Detroit Lions.
Green Bay enters the Week 2 tilt as a 3.5-point favorite, and the game’s 48.5 total points over/under is tied for the highest of the week (Jaguars-Bengals).
From odds and trends to picks, props and analysis from our experts, here’s everything you need to help make your decisions at the betting window.
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET.
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Game picks | Prop bets | Betting trends
Game bets
Commanders +3.5 (-115) 
Pamela Maldonado: This is a classic overreaction spot. The Packers looked efficient last week, but a low-volume offense, no Christian Watson and a conservative fourth-down approach capped their ceiling. Washington is built to sustain drives, control tempo and stress defensive fronts with QB Jayden Daniels. Two weeks ago, these two teams were looked at as near equals. Washington’s win Sunday validated that, and the Packers didn’t separate enough to justify a two-point swing from the preseason odds. Has anything fundamentally changed about these two teams? No. The Commanders are just being undervalued because their opponent was the Giants.
ESPN Analytics projection: Packers by 3.5 (59.2% chance to win outright)
Packers -3.5 (-105)
Eric Moody: Green Bay has started seasons strong under head coach Matt LaFleur. Quarterback Jordan Love looked sharp in Week 1, completing 73% of his passes with two touchdowns, and running back Josh Jacobs powered the ground game in a balanced Packers attack. The Packers’ defense, now bolstered by Micah Parsons, held Detroit’s explosive offense to just 13 points and 246 total yards Sunday. With a dynamic offense and a premier pass rush, the Packers are well-positioned to overwhelm the Commanders on a short week, who are 0-6 straight up in their six games at Lambeau.
Notable player props, bets
Jacory Croskey-Merritt to score anytime TD (+225)
Matt Bowen: Croskey-Merritt totaled 10 carries and a score in his first pro game during the Commanders’ Week 1 win over the Giants. And I would anticipate him to see an uptick in total rushing volume Thursday night in Green Bay. With the short-area speed and contact balance to play downhill, Croskey-Merritt has the traits to emerge as the Commanders’ lead runner this season.
Jayden Daniels rushing ladder: 45+ rushing yards (-125) and 50+ (+105)
Maldonado: Week 1 showed us exactly how Kliff Kingsbury wants to continue using Daniels. The QB had 11 carries for 68 yards against the Giants, utilizing a mix of designed runs and scrambles. This is not a bailout plan; Daniels’ legs are part of the offense. Even against Parsons, I’m not worried. Parsons will win his matchups, but his upfield aggression actually opens lanes when Daniels keeps on RPO’s or steps up in the pocket. Last year, the Packers struggled with mobile quarterbacks such as Jalen Hurts and Caleb Williams. Daniels has the edge with a realistic path of up to 70 rushing yards, meaning grabbing plus money is value and you have a floor to work with when betting on a prop at multiple lines with progressively longer odds the further up the ladder you go.
Mike Clay’s projection: 9 carries, 47 yards
Terry McLaurin to record 110+ receiving yards (+700)
Seth Walder: This is all about a deep-threat receiver like McLaurin having more likely tail outcomes. Since the start of 2024, McLaurin ranks 19th out of 88 wide receivers with at least 300 routes run in air yards per target, is 13th in go-route rate and 11th in air yards per route. He’s not only a receiver who can go deep, he’s a good one that earns targets.
That makes him a pretty ideal candidate for this type of prop. The model I use for alternate receiving lines incorporates the median line itself, then also considers the type of receiver they are — plus factors around the matchup itself — to determine the full range of outcomes. And the game context should help here, too: The Commanders are underdogs, so they could be chasing (i.e. passing) more than usual. My model makes him +462 here.
Mike Clay’s projection: 5 receptions, 68 yards
Romeo Doubs to go OVER 42.5 receiving yards (-110)
Moody: The Packers’ wide receiver group is banged up, but Love and Doubs already have shown strong rapport. Doubs’ versatility could be key if the Commanders secondary focuses additional attention to contain Matthew Golden and Jayden Reed. Doubs led the Packers in routes run in Week 1 and receiving yards (68 on four targets).
Mike Clay’s projection: 3 receptions, 44 yards
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
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The Packers (+800) are now fourth as favorites to win the Super Bowl. Their odds have moved significantly recently, starting with the Micah Parsons trade (20-1 before trade to 14-1 after) and continuing following their win over the Lions (11-1 entering Sunday).
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The Commanders are 0-3 against the spread in their past three road games. The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their past five as a home favorite.
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