Iowa State football expert previews the Arizona Wildcats game, makes a score prediction

Off to its best start in 10 years and fresh off a bye, Arizona dives into conference play with possibly the toughest game on the schedule. The Wildcats (3-0) visit No. 14 Iowa State (4-0, 1-0) on Saturday afternoon, making their first trip to Ames since 1968.

The Cyclones, who played in last year’s Big 12 final, have a common opponent (and win) with the UA, beating Kansas State 24-21 in Ireland in Week Zero and most recently won at Arkansas State before having last week off.

To better understand Iowa State, we reached out to Levi Stevenson of SB Nation sister site Wide Right & Natty Lite for some insight and a score prediction. Below are his expansive answers to our restricted questions:

AZ Desert Swarm: “Iowa State got an early jump on the Big 12 competition by beating Kansas State in Dublin, one of three 1-score games for the Cyclones during their 4-0 start. What has impressed you the most about this team so far, and what are your biggest concerns?”

Levi Stevenson: “Easily the most impressive part about this team so far is their ability to respond to adversity and come through in difficult situations. In Ireland, it was playing a heated rival while dealing with a difficult travel schedule and rainy weather. Against Iowa, it was another massive rival and a tough, weird game, as CyHawk tends to be. Against Arkansas State, it was dealing with immense physical and emotional fatigue after two rivalry games in three weeks and trying to catch up on rest and recovery after the Ireland trip, as well as a plucky opponent with some good team speed and some talented individual players at key positions. Each time they’ve been faced with a do-or-die situation, the Cyclones have come through, almost always on the back of quarterback Rocco Becht, whose ability to come through in the clutch is quickly rising into legendary status.

“The biggest concern so far has been the inconsistency of the wide receiver room. There’s plenty of talent and athleticism in the room between Bret Eskildsen, Dominic Overby, Chase Sowell and Xavier Townsend, but that room has not been able to consistently assert themselves in the passing game up to this point, though that is at least partially due to the outstanding play of the tight end room thus far.”

Rocco Becht is similar to Arizona’s Noah Fifita in that both are redshirt juniors in their third year as starting QBs and each won a conference freshman of the year award in 2023. What has made him so effective for Iowa State?

“As mentioned before, when you need a big drive from your quarterback in the fourth quarter, there’s probably not a better quarterback in college football than Rocco Becht at coming through in the clutch. Since the beginning of the 2024 season, Iowa State is 8-1 in one-score games, and that is heavily influenced by Becht and extremely reliable late-game heroics. Beyond his leadership and clutch factor, Becht throws a very good deep ball and is a sneaky good runner in open space that isn’t afraid of contact. QB power out of an empty set or 01 personnel is not uncommon to see on third down or goal line situations.”

Carson Hansen is coming off his first career 100-yard rushing game, part of a ground attack averaging more than 160 yards per contest. How much do you trust Iowa State’s rushing offense, especially against an Arizona defense that has been so good at defending the pass that teams have to produce via the run to do anything?

“The beauty of Iowa State’s running game is that it’s really a two-headed backfield between Hansen and Abu Sama. Hansen is your classic one-cut back that loves to get vertical and plow into the second level like a freight train. Offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser loves to send him through the A-gap behind a pulling guard and/or a tight end or two. Abu Sama is the home run-hitter that also displays a nice balance of power and elusiveness. He’s gotten better this season at being an every-down back, but if he’s on the field, the Cyclones are trying to find him a lane to take it to the house. Iowa State has shown a willingness to sit on the running game if it makes sense, running the ball an astonishing 46 times against Kansas State, and used it to wear down K-State’s defensive front and eventually gain firm control of the game in the second half.”

Three of the top five pass catchers so far are tight ends. Is this by design, or have those just been the guys getting open the most?

“This is absolutely by design. Per Pro Football Focus, Iowa State has at least two tight ends on the field over 75 percent of the time, and is not afraid to put three or even four tight ends on the field depending on the situation. Arizona will be defending a lot more size in both the running and passing game than they’ve seen this season (or really since they joined the Big 12), and expect Iowa State to use the RPO game with the tight ends to try to keep the Arizona defense off-balance. You’ll see tight ends all over the field pretty much every play. They’ll be blocking catching passes in the middle of the field, at the sticks, in the flats, up the seam, and wherever else they can find a soft spot in the coverage.”

Which Cyclone defenders should Arizona be most concerned about and what is the defense best known for?

“The Iowa State defense has returned to the form we’ve seen through most of the Matt Campbell/Jon Heacock era, which is playing with a very good secondary and a rush defense is much better at defending the run than you’d expect from a 3-3 stack scheme. If you’ve been watching a lot of football over the last few years and noticed that the 3-3 stack defense has become one of the most commonly played defensive schemes in college football, you can thank Jon Heacock and Iowa State for that. The modern version of this defense was pioneered in 2017 as a response to the high-flying offenses of the Big 12’s Air Raid days, and quickly gained popularity around the sport after showing a consistent ability to bottle up some of those offensive attacks that were averaging 40-plus points and 500-plus yards of offense per game.

“The 2025 Cyclones have players at each level of the defense that Wildcat fans will want to keep an eye on. Defensive tackle Domonique Orange is a monster on the inside who demands the attention of at least two offensive linemen on every single play. There’s a good reason he’s a multi-year alumni of Bruce Feldman’s ‘Freaks’ list. He’ll be arguably the best individual football on the field in most games Iowa State plays this season.

“Linebacker Caleb Bacon is back at full speed after missing all of 2024 with a broken leg, and has been excellent at the outside linebacker spot. He’s an effective coverage defender, but he’s most effective when used as an edge rusher to complement Orange on the interior and stress multiple spots of the offensive line.

“The defensive backfield is led by Jontez Williams, who has graded out as one of the best coverage corners in college football over the last two seasons. His running mate at the other corner spot is Jeremiah Cooper, who moved to the boundary after spending the first three seasons of his career playing free safety. His transition has gone about as smoothly as possible and has really firmed up what was maybe the only spot on the defense that was potentially in question coming into the season. Cooper was able to move over to corner in part due to the rise of a group of young safeties that are playing beyond their years, the best of which has been Marcus Neal. Neal has graded as Iowa State’s best overall player in multiple games this season, and is a true enforcer at the line of scrimmage in the running game, and is a very solid defender in deep coverage. You’ll hear his name called quite a bit on Saturday, and usually after you see him shoot out a cannon and lay a big hit on the ball-carrier at the line of scrimmage.”

Matt Campbell is in his 10th season at Iowa State, which nowadays is a long time to stay at one job, and he just got extended through 2032. Why has he resisted the urge to move on?

“That’s the magic question that national college football writers have been trying to answer for a decade now, but the answer really is as simple as Campbell living by the motto ‘the grass is greener where you water it.’ He’s turned down NFL jobs and blue blood programs, and that’s because the guy just loves college football, and, more importantly, loves Ames. He loves being able to raise his kids in a small college town and have a tremendous amount of control over his program. It’s difficult for a lot of people to understand a human being that isn’t fundamentally motivated by money in our current social climate, but it’s never been about the money for Campbell. During COVID, he paid his assistants out of his own pocket to make sure they didn’t see a pay cut, and that recent extension is actually a real pay cut for him, as he decided to prioritize making sure his assistants are well-compensated and helping Iowa State fund its revenue-sharing obligations. Matt Campbell is a truly special human being that loves his job, and Iowa State, the City of Ames, and Cyclone fans everywhere love him. It’s hard to find that in today’s world.”

Prediction time. Does Arizona go into Ames and pull off a shocker or do the Cyclones hold serve? Give us a score pick.

“Iowa State opened as a 6.5-point favorite for this game, which makes sense. Arizona is coming off a big win over Kansas State, and Iowa State is coming off a win over Arkansas State that was much more difficult than it probably should have been. Had Iowa State won that game comfortably, this is probably a 10-plus point spread. However, both teams are coming off bye weeks, which means an extra week of preparation, and, for the Cyclones, a week to finally get caught up on rest and recovery after starting the season behind due to the Ireland trip. This game is at night and the Cyclones will be wearing the white outs uniforms, so you can expect a rowdy atmosphere that’s notoriously difficult to win on the road in.

“Noah Fifita is a nice player and Ismail Mahdi has been really good so far this season, and will absolutely keep Iowa State’s defense on its toes with play action and misdirection and require a discplined game from the linebackers. Arizona’s defense seems to have taken a nice step forward, but I am curious to see how the handle Iowa State’s offensive attack, which is much more physical and hard-nosed than anything Arizona has seen this season. In contrast to Kansas State’s tendency to avoid contact and Avery Johnson’s general lack of aggression as either a runner or a passer, the Cyclones primarily run out of heavy sets with 12, 13, or 14 personnel, and are not afraid to take deep shots and trust their receivers and tight ends to win their one-on-one battles.

“If Arizona wants to pull off the upset, their best bet is to encourage Noah Fifita to become a true dual threat and be assertive with his legs rather than just trying to extend plays. Iowa State’s secondary isn’t afraid to cover on extended plays, but holding up in coverage often requires them to sacrifice leaving a spy in the middle of the field to cover the QB run, which can leave them vulnerable to scrambles if the quarterback is willing to be aggressive enough. That said, the Cyclones are about as gritty and tough as it gets, and I think they’ll be able to wear down Arizona over the course of the game and really assert their physicality. Iowa State is a significantly more tested team than Arizona right now, and I think that experience will pay off down the stretch. I expect the Wildcats to keep pace for quite awhile and impress a few people on the way, but eventually get outpaced down the stretch, with Rocco Becht delivering yet another clutch fourth quarter drive to put the game away. Give me the Cyclones 31-21.”