NFL Week 2 survivor pool picks, strategy: Why we’re not picking Ravens and a Texans debate

Week 1 of the NFL was absolute carnage for survivor pools. The unquestionable favorite, the Cincinnati Bengals, led survivor pool picks with nearly 50 percent of picks and then went down, taking many of us with them, 16-10 to the New England Patriots.

Did you survive? Or maybe, graciously and expensively, your pool allows you to buy back in. Either way, our survivor columnists, Renee Miller and Adam Gretz, are back with analysis and picks for Week 2.

Take it away!

(Reminder: If you’re looking for a refresher on how NFL survivor works, last year Adam laid out some basic strategies, and Renee went analytical, using her background as a professor of neuroscience to look at how biases can affect our selections and our chances of winning a survivor pool.)

NFL Week 2 survivor strategy

Adam: The Cincinnati Bengals were by far the most popular pick in Week 1, and their loss probably means that a lot of people in your pool are already knocked out for the season. So, if you resisted the temptation to pick them and made it through to Week 2, congratulations are in order for you.

There are a LOT of really intriguing survivor matchups this week and some pretty big lines around the league that would be easy to pounce on. But I’m still trying to hang on to some of the elite teams for as long as possible and going after the bad teams and matchups that might involve some teams that might not be as popular right now.

The Baltimore Ravens look like a great bet at home against the Las Vegas Raiders (more than a touchdown favorite) and will probably be one of the biggest picks of the week. But I’m not sure I want to use them just yet. They have some really favorable matchups ahead (Week 6 against Washington and Week 9 against Denver) that still give them great future value, especially if other people in my league are burning through them so early.

It’s a similar story with the Houston Texans and their home game this week against the Chicago Bears and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. They are big favorites and will be a popular pick, but I kind of want to keep them in my back pocket as well. Especially with a very winnable Week 3 game against Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings looming and a Week 6 game against New England still out there.

If I can find a lesser team that still has a high win probability, I’m going to jump on that instead of using one of the elites. Fortunately, there is a matchup like that sitting out there this week.

Renee: Even the best-reasoned strategies are not foolproof, as the Bengals so rudely showed us in Week 1. If you were able to sniff out the Tee Higgins injury and get off them, good job to you! It goes to show that Survivor can’t be a set-it-and-forget-it any more than fantasy football is.

I completely understand wanting to go back to the most obvious and safest pick, which, as Adam noted, would be the Ravens, but agree with him that there is too much future value there. I disagree on Houston, however (see below), mainly on the future value proposition. Call me gun-shy, but I’m not sure Minnesota and New England won’t continue to be a tricky defensive matchup.

It’s not too often we have a shake-up like the Bengals’ loss this early, leaving some Survivor pools down 50 percent of their members. On the plus side, those that allow rebuy will have prize pools that are that much juicier.

How you react to a disappointing Week 1 loss, assuming you can buy back in or start anew, can set the tone for the rest of your season. Some tendencies would include being extra reckless now in response to the futility of being “safe” in Week 1. Others might have you simply doubling down on the safest strategy, future be damned. Neither is optimal, unfortunately, which means reasoned analysis and finding a balance between safety and risk is essential. Here’s how we see it for Week 2….

Week 2 chalk picks

The table below lists the five most popular survivor picks for Week 2 from Yahoo Fantasy, with the percentage of pick distribution for each of those teams as well as the point spread, from BetMGM, for each of their games as of Sept. 10.

Adam: Los Angeles Chargers over Carolina Panthers

There are two things I am not generally a fan of in the NFL, especially when it comes to picking winners in games: picking the Los Angeles Chargers in most weeks, and picking a West Coast team traveling east for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff. Put those two things together and it’s something I would ordinarily avoid if possible.

What I am a fan of is picking against the Carolina Panthers again, because I am thoroughly convinced what we saw in Week 1 was not a fluke. This team is … bad. Really bad. They were the worst team in football a year ago and somehow looked even worse on Sunday by a fairly significant margin. I know it’s only one week, but what is there to be excited about here? The focus will be put on quarterback Bryce Young because he’s a No. 1 overall pick that the team paid a truckload of assets to acquire, but it’s not even just about him. Everything here is rotten from the top down.

As unreliable as the Chargers can be on a yearly — and weekly — basis, Jim Harbaugh brings some serious credibility to the sidelines (a huge problem for this team over the years) and they have the far superior quarterback in this game (Justin Herbert). I also love the way they ran the ball in Week 1 and think there is a strong chance they just completely steamroll over a Panthers defense that was among the worst in the league last year and allowed 180 yards on the ground in a Week 1 loss to the New Orleans Saints.

The Chargers are more than a touchdown favorite on the road and everything about that is valid. They might win by two or three touchdowns.

Renee: Houston Texans over Chicago Bears

Houston is coming off an impressive Week 1 divisional win over the Colts in which almost everyone on offense was involved. Joe Mixon fit in seamlessly, Stefon Diggs caught both of C.J. Stroud’s touchdowns while Nico Collins remained the workhorse receiver. It was a well-oiled machine on both sides of the ball. The Texans play their Week 2 game Sunday night at home vs. a Chicago team that looked to be on the opposite end of the football spectrum. In contrast to Stroud’s award-winning rookie season, Caleb Williams debuted with just 108 yards of total offense and looked lost on the field a lot of the time.

Houston is a 6.5-point favorite over the Bears, one of the largest spreads of the week. Perhaps more importantly, they don’t have another matchup as good as this one on the horizon all season (as anyone who picked — and stuck with — Cincinnati in Week 1 can attest, New England is not a gimme win).

The Bears did eke out an ugly Week 1 win over the Titans, thanks to their defense and special teams, which is possibly more of an indictment of Tennessee. I suspect they won’t be nearly as effective against Stroud, Mixon and Co., making Houston one of the safer picks this week.

Week 2 contrarian picks

Adam: Indianapolis Colts over Green Bay Packers

In a perfect world, and with a healthy Jordan Love in the lineup for the Packers, this would be an easy game to avoid.

With Love, the Packers are a playoff team and a potential Super Bowl contender in the NFC if everything goes right. Add in the wrinkle of it being their home opener at Lambeau Field and they would probably be significant favorites in this game.

But this world is unfortunately not perfect, and the Packers will not have Love following his Week 1 knee injury against the Philadelphia Eagles. That leaves the Packers offense in the hands of backup quarterback Malik Willis, who was just acquired a couple of weeks ago.

Willis is a definite threat to make plays with his feet, but I don’t know how much you can trust him to throw the football at this point. He struggled mightily in his rookie season in 2022, and has thrown just six passes in a regular season game since then. Add in the fact he has only been in the Packers system for a few weeks and I just can’t imagine this is a very pass-heavy approach or a successful day for the offense.

There is also a chance that Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson makes enough big plays with both his arm and his legs to put the Packers in a hole they cannot climb out of. I don’t know many other times this season you will be overly confident picking the Colts, at least early in the season, and this might be a good opportunity to use them and keep some top teams in your back pocket for the future.

Renee: Washington Commanders over New York Giants

Picking against the Giants might be the next best thing to picking against the Panthers. Adam pointed this out with his Vikings pick last week, and I’m a believer. Washington did a lot of good things against Tampa Bay in Week 1 that should be more effective against the Giants. Chief among these is the ground game. Jayden Daniels lived up to the rookie QB hype, scoring twice on the ground with zero mistakes, while both Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler were heavily involved in the game plan. Had Baker Mayfield not been absolutely perfect, the Commanders might have won this road tilt.

Which brings us to the Washington defense, or lack thereof. My only misgiving about this contrarian pick is the weakness of the Commanders secondary. However, I think it can hold up to the weakness of the Giants offense. With all due respect to Malik Nabers, he still has Daniel Jones throwing him the football. While Minnesota’s pass defense is improved this season, it’s not Fort Knox, yet Jones managed to complete just over 50 percent of his passes for 186 yards and threw two interceptions. Still, a bad defense is the thorn in the side of the Commanders pick — it’s only for you desperados who like to live dangerously.

In Washington’s favor is the home setting, the vote of confidence from oddsmakers (-2.5) and the potential of the offense against an almost equally bad defense. Daniels has room to improve for sure, and I think it will be a practice priority for him to strengthen his connection to WR Terry McLaurin this week, but he is going to be an exciting NFL QB. The depth of skill at every position in the Washington offense greatly outstrips that of New York, which should push them over the top.

(Photo of Joe Mixon: Justin Casterline / Getty Images)