NFL Week 7: Predictions, analysis, key matchups and stats for every game

FOX Sports’ staff of NFL writers has assembled a comprehensive guide to every game that will be played in Week 7, laying out the full schedule, telling you what to expect and making predictions on the outcomes. Make sure to check the site and app throughout the season for great analysis and storytelling each week.

Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-5) (FOX, 1 p.m. ET)

Overview: This has to be the game that gets the Buccaneers back on track. Even before Panthers head coach Matt Rhule was fired, this game should have been penciled in as a “gimme” for the Bucs as they make their way through the NFC South. Now, after an inter-conference loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week (which was supposed to be another gimme), the Bucs find themselves having to quell concern over their quarterback, offensive line and even their defense.

The Panthers have interim head coach Steve Wilks at the helm now, and while he has everything to prove, they also just traded one of their best receivers in Robbie Anderson. This looks like a lost season for Carolina, and I just don’t sense the end of Tom Brady‘s undefeated track record against the Panthers since he became a Buccaneer.

Matchup to watch: Bucs RB Leonard Fournette vs. Panthers front seven 

Carolina is allowing the 12th-fewest rushing yards thanks to some good pieces up front and safety Jeremy Chinn. The Bucs rank dead last in rushing offense and yards per rushing attempt (with a measly 3.1) and they can’t go on like this. They’ll have to get the ground game going if for no other reason than to give their defense a break.

Key stat: Since their 3-0 start in 2021, the Panthers are 3-17 over their past 20 games — and they’ll be running into a team in the Bucs that, including the postseason, is 10-2 in its past 12 games against the NFC South.

Prediction: Tampa Bay’s defense bounces back in a big way and returns to its early-season form against a familiar division opponent while the offense finally gets things going.

Buccaneers 33, Panthers 9 —Carmen Vitali

Cleveland Browns (2-4) at Baltimore Ravens (3-3) (CBS, 1 p.m. ET)

Overview: The Browns looked very strong early in the season, and they really should be, considering they’ve got the No. 1 rushing offense in football. That alone should be enough for them to grind out some wins. But they’ve got two big problems. First, their defense is terrible. They’re giving up 27.2 points per game (30th in the NFL). Second, QB Jacoby Brissett has thrown four interceptions in the past four games. 

That really should give the Ravens an opening. Their offense has moved the ball against better defenses than this, and Lamar Jackson could have a strong day. The Ravens will likely jump out in front of the Browns. The only question is whether they can actually hold onto a lead for a change.

Matchup to watch: Ravens TE Mark Andrews vs. Browns linebackers and safeties 

Andrews has averaged five catches for 64 yards and a touchdown in eight career games against Cleveland, which is certainly solid. But he was dominant against the Browns last December, with 11 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown in what turned out to be a Cleveland win. The Ravens don’t have a particularly strong receiving corps anymore, so Andrews (39 catches, 455 yards and five touchdowns) is Jackson’s best weapon, by far. If the Browns stop him, they can stop the Ravens.

Key stat: The Ravens have the worst fourth-quarter point differential in the NFL this season (minus-42). That explains why they’re 3-3 despite holding a double-digit lead in every game.

Prediction: After getting frustrated by the Giants‘ upstart defense last week, particularly late in the game, Jackson should find the Browns defense inviting. There really is no excuse for Baltimore not to move the ball and score some points. Even if the Browns use their running game to grind the game out and limit the Ravens’ opportunities, Jackson should have enough time to take a lead. 

The big question, though, is whether he can get out in front enough because Baltimore has choked away leads in every game this season. There are a lot of reasons why that’s happening. But in this game, what matters most is that the Ravens are playing a Browns defense that is no stranger to fourth-quarter mishaps. It may become a battle of mistakes late in this game. Maybe this time, if the Ravens give the game away, the Browns will give it right back.

Ravens 31, Browns 27 —Ralph Vacchiano

Atlanta Falcons (3-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-3) (FOX, 1 p.m. ET)

Overview: After a maddeningly poor start to the season, Bengals QB Joe Burrow has looked a lot more like his old self over the past month. He has averaged 279 passing yards per game and thrown nine touchdowns with just one interception in the past four games, as the Bengals (3-3) have gone 3-1. 

But before anyone crowns them as a Super Bowl contender again, don’t be so sure the Bengals will get past Atlanta. The Falcons have been remarkably competitive in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year. They’ve won three of their past four games, too, including good wins at Seattle and vs. the Browns and 49ers, and they came within a touchdown of beating the Bucs in Tampa. In fact, their three losses have been by a combined 11 points. With QB Marcus Mariota, they don’t have the passing game to compete with Cincinnati, but their third-ranked ground game should allow them to make this another tight game.

Matchup to watch: Falcons CB A.J. Terrell vs. Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase

There aren’t many cornerbacks who can shut Chase down. Terrell normally would have a chance, but he has been banged up the past few weeks. Last week, Chase went off for 132 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches. If Burrow and Chase are in a groove, Cincinnati will be tough to beat.

Key stat: The Falcons rank 31st in passing defense (allowing 281.2 passing yards per game). That’s a problem in this game. It’s been a long time since Burrow’s four-interception performance in Week 1. His touchdown-to-interception ratio since then is 10-1 and he has run for two touchdowns, too.

Prediction: The way the Falcons run the ball, they can make any game competitive. They can grind down opponents with the best of them, which gives them a chance in the fourth quarter, especially if their opponent makes a mistake. But the way Burrow is going right now, counting on him to make a mistake is really a lot to ask. He’s too good and has too many weapons. If the game is tight, he’s very likely to make the big play to put the game away. 

The Falcons, meanwhile, don’t seem capable of that — not with Mariota averaging 176 passing yards per game. So it’s really as simple as this: Sure, it’ll be close. Which quarterback do you trust with the game on the line? Burrow is the easy choice.

 Bengals 24, Falcons 16 —Ralph Vacchiano

Detroit Lions (1-4) at Dallas Cowboys (4-2) (CBS, 1 p.m. ET)

Overview: The long-awaited return is finally in sight, as all signs point toward Dak Prescott returning to action for the first time since injuring his thumb back in the Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay. The Cowboys couldn’t have timed this better had they tried, considering Prescott is now ready to play just days after the team’s first loss in a month — and the first game in which we saw Cooper Rush struggle as his replacement, throwing three interceptions in Philadelphia.

The Lions are probably cursing their luck coming out of an early bye week. Even if Prescott is a bit rusty, the Cowboys figure to be a tougher opponent with him in the lineup than without. Last time we saw Detroit before the bye, their No. 1 offense failed to score a point in a 29-0 loss to New England. The Lions were decimated by injuries in that game, so it’d go a long way toward improving their chances if they can get D’Andre Swift or D.J. Chark — or preferably both of them — back in the lineup.

Matchup to watch: Cowboys RBs Ezekiel Elliott & Tony Pollard vs. Lions front seven

Don’t let the hype around Prescott distract you from the fact that no one in the NFL is defending the run worse than Detroit. In the Lions’ last game before the bye, New England ran the ball for 176 yards, and Seattle racked up an incredible 235 rushing yards the week before that.

Even with opponents keying on the run, the Cowboys are averaging a healthy 119 yards per game this season. Elliott has been the bruising, physical bellcow, while Pollard offers big-play potential as his understudy. 

With Prescott getting his first action in six weeks, it’s a good bet the Cowboys try to control this game on the ground. Can the Lions do anything to change that game plan?

Key stat: Allowing an average of 34 points per game, the Lions have the worst scoring defense in the NFL and are presently on pace to be the second-worst scoring defense in NFL history. 

Prediction: The Lions can’t stop the run and they can’t get to the quarterback. The Cowboys run the ball very effectively, and they’re one of the best teams in football at getting pressure. Even if Prescott needs time to work some kinks out, this Dallas offense should be plenty capable of scoring points, and the Cowboys defense has proven more than capable of getting stops. Maybe this is not a total blowout, but it should be a fairly comfortable Cowboys win.

Cowboys 31, Lions 21 –David Helman

New York Giants (5-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4) (FOX, 1 p.m. ET)

Overview: The Giants have been one of the biggest surprises of the season under first-year coach Brian Daboll, finding ways to win. New York rallied from down 10 early in the fourth quarter to top Baltimore last week. It hasn’t been pretty for the Giants, but they’ve found success leaning on star running back Saquon Barkley and the defense.

The Jaguars are far removed from the team that raised eyebrows nationally just a few weeks ago, when they were riding back-to-back wins of 20-plus points. They’ve since lost three straight games, each of them by a score — and for different reasons. Finishing has become Jacksonville’s biggest issue. The Jags fell 34-27 to Indianapolis last week, despite efficient play from quarterback Trevor Lawrence and a season-high 243 rushing yards.

Matchup to watch: Giants RB Saquon Barkley vs. Jaguars LBs Devin Lloyd, Foyesade Oluokun

Barkely is second in the NFL with 616 yards rushing. And the Jaguars have the third-best run defense in the league, allowing just 89.3 rushing yards per game (Jacksonville’s Lloyd and Oluokun both rank in the top 10 in tackles). So something has to give. 

The Jaguars will need to limit Barkley to have a chance to win this game. The 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year leads the NFL with 771 all-purpose yards. 

Key stats: The Giants have trailed in all six of their games this season. Their five comeback wins are the most in the NFL. The Jaguars are 0-18 in their past 18 non-conference games, dating back to 2018. 

Prediction: I think the Jags end their losing streak in this matchup. As much success as the Giants have had this season, they’ve also been incredibly lucky, playing to a score in all six of their games so far and coming out on top in five of them. 

If the Jaguars build on their offensive momentum from last week, and their defense plays the way it did the first five games of the season, they can put a complete game together at home against the Giants. 

Jaguars 30, Giants 21 –Ben Arthur

Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1) at Tennessee Titans (3-2) (CBS, 1 p.m. ET)

Overview: After 0-2 starts, both of these teams have clawed their way to three wins entering Week 7. For the Titans, coming off their bye, a big reason why has been winning in the red zone. They boast the league’s top offense inside the 20 by a wide margin (at a 92.3% efficiency rate, Tennessee has more than a 16% edge over second-place Kansas City), even though the Titans have scored the fewest second-half points in the league. Defensively, the Titans are tied for ninth in red-zone efficiency. A goal-line stand in the final seconds of Week 5 against the Commanders — an interception by linebacker David Long Jr. — secured Tennessee’s third straight victory. 

On Sunday against the Jaguars, a Colts offense that has struggled mightily finally got going. Playing with tempo and a quick passing game sparked a season-high 34 points in the victory. For once the offense picked up the slack for the defense, which allowed a season-high 243 rushing yards against Jacksonville. It’s not clear yet if the Colts can sustain what they did offensively last week, but if they can — and combine that with a defense that has been mostly strong — they’re one of the better teams in the AFC.

The Titans have had Indy’s number the past couple years, though. Tennessee has won four straight against the Colts, including in Week 4 at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Matchup to watch: Colts OL vs. Titans DL

The Colts’ playing style last week took pressure off the offensive line, which struggled in pass protection through five games. But is the no-huddle success replicable against the Titans? And will the Colts deploy the same strategy for a second straight week? Those are two big questions. Keep in mind, Indianapolis could have its top two running backs return this week, in All-Pro Jonathan Taylor (ankle) and Nyheim Hines (concussion protocol). The Colts O-line will look to create rush lanes against a Titans defense that ranks fifth in rushing yards allowed. 

Key stats: Titans RB Derrick Henry has averaged 120.8 rushing yards per game in his past six matchups against the Colts (dating back to 2019). The Titans are 9-1 in their past 10 divisional games and 7-0 in their past seven games following a bye week.

Prediction: The Colts beat the Titans for the first time since Week 10 of the 2020 season. Indianapolis may have found an offensive-line combination that works. And if Matt Ryan has time to throw, the Colts’ young, talented core of pass-catchers can take advantage of a Titans pass defense that ranks last in the league. With running back reinforcements expected, too, the Colts have a great chance to end their skid against a division rival. 

Colts 27, Titans 25 –Ben Arthur

Green Bay Packers (3-3) at Washington Commanders (2-4) (FOX, 1 p.m. ET)

Overview: The Packers and Commanders combined for 492 yards and 22 points last week. So yeah, these two offenses are in a bit of trouble. That’s somewhat surprising for Green Bay, considering they have Aaron Rodgers. But at least he’s likely to bounce out of what has been a season-long funk at some point. 

The Commanders, meanwhile, just lost starting quarterback Carson Wentz to a broken finger and will roll out last year’s starter, Taylor Heinicke, in this game. They are hoping that Heinicke’s return settles down an offense that has lost its way despite a ton of offensive weapons. They think his knowledge of the offense and his mobility will help mitigate their crumbling offensive line. That seems like a lot to hope for in a game that might come down to a matchup of two quarterbacks — one that seems like a huge mismatch.

Matchup to watch: Commanders RBs vs. Packers rushing defense

The Green Bay defense has been terrible against the run this season, giving up 135 yards per game on the ground. That includes 179 yards last week in a 27-10 home loss against the Jets in a game in which Jets QB Zach Wilson didn’t do much. That would seem to be Washington’s best hope for success. They have three strong running backs in Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic and rookie Brian Robinson. If their banged-up offensive line can get any push and get the running backs going, they’ll have a chance. They need to attack the Packers where they are most vulnerable.

Key stat: Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has been held below 300 passing yards in 10 straight games, tied for the second-longest stretch of his career. That’s just stunning. At some point, you’d think he’s going to explode, even with his questionable group of receivers. If he ever gets going, the Packers offense could be tough to stop.

Prediction: This would be a very good week for the Packers offense to get on track. The Commanders don’t get much of a pass rush, and Rodgers is usually pretty dangerous when he has time. And he’ll probably get the ball a lot, because the Commanders offense has been a mess the past few weeks. The only thing that’s unclear is whether Rodgers is really capable of making something out of an offense without strong receivers. He doesn’t have Davante Adams to lean on anymore, and none of his current receivers has more than 300 yards. 

Still, Rodgers surely has enough to get by Heinicke and the Commanders. They may be hoping that Heinicke can jump start the offense in Washington, but he can’t fix their offensive line problems. The Packers may not be capable of lighting anyone up anymore, but they should still have enough to win this one with relative ease.

Packers 24, Commanders 13 —Ralph Vacchiano

New York Jets (4-2) at Denver Broncos (2-4) (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Overview: Zach Wilson‘s Jets, looking to win four straight games for the first time since 2010, are way more competent than anyone could have expected. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson‘s Broncos, who rank last in the league in scoring offense (15.2 PPG), are far less competent.

The Broncos look like they’re on the brink of implosion as they face the potential of losing their fourth straight game — and to the Jets, no less. Russell Wilson is struggling to see the field, and first-year coach Nathaniel Hackett is struggling to manage games. Meanwhile, Denver’s defense is holding up its end of the bargain. The Broncos have the fourth-fewest points allowed and the third-fewest yards allowed. They’re clearly an elite unit, with cornerback Patrick Surtain and edge Bradley Chubb looking like bona fide studs. The only way the Broncos pull out of this nosedive is if Wilson can play to the caliber of years past.

The Jets, meanwhile, have been among the NFL’s biggest surprises. And while I said they were Zach Wilson’s team, that’s not exactly true. The Jets thrive based on production from their defense and their rushing attack. The passing offense produces on an as-needed basis. If they don’t need Wilson to throw, the Jets won’t ask him to throw. As they began to pull away from the Packers last week, they turned almost exclusively to the rushing game with Breece Hall and Michael Carter in the second half. That worked just fine. So it will be interesting to see if that recipe — winning without asking much of Wilson — can continue.

Matchup to watch: Dolphins linebacker Alex Singleton vs. Jets RB Breece Hall

Singleton has the highest PFF grade (87.2) among Broncos defensive players with 200-plus snaps and the third-highest grade on the defense as a whole. He racked up 21 tackles against the Chargers. You read that right: 21. His 19 solo tackles tied him for second-most in a single game in NFL history. Meanwhile, the Jets want to win by feeding Hall.

Key stats: The Jets have the best fourth-quarter point differential (plus-48) in the NFL this season. The Broncos have scored a touchdown on just 20.0% of their red zone trips, the lowest percentage in the league. 

Prediction: The Broncos are angry — and they’re starting to point fingers. This game will either make or break them, and I’m betting we see their breaking point. The Jets generate enough takeaways to give their offense ample scoring chances.

Jets 13, Broncos 7 –Henry McKenna

Houston Texans (1-3-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (1-4) (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Overview: This is a matchup of struggling teams, both coming off their bye, that can’t consistently finish. 

The Raiders are coming off a 30-29 loss to the Chiefs in Week 5, a game they led 17-0 in the first half. All four of Las Vegas’ losses have come by six points or fewer. Its lone win came against the Broncos, really the only team that can say its season has been more disappointing so far. The Raiders’ star receiving trio of Davante Adams, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow has been underwhelming (though Adams has posted back-to-back games of at least 100 yards). Four-time Pro Bowler Chandler Jones has been a non-factor in the pass rush. Vegas is a talented team on paper playing bad football.

With the Texans, struggles were expected. But they earned their first win of the season in Week 5 against the Jaguars, thanks to star rookie running back Dameon Pierce and their defense. Houston may not have its quarterback of the future, but it has some strong weapons on offense — Pierce and receivers Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins — and a promising defense to build on. 

Matchup to watch: Raiders RB Josh Jacobs vs. Texans defensive front 

Jacobs has been the Raiders’ best playmaker since Week 4 and he’s having the best season of his career, with 490 rushing yards (third in the NFL) on 98 rushing yards per game. And the Texans have the third-worst run defense in the NFL, allowing 164.8 rushing yards per contest. Houston must figure out how to stop Jacobs, who’s just the third player in Raiders franchise history to record 140-plus rushing yards in back-to-back games (joining Marcus Allen and Bo Jackson).

Key stats: Las Vegas kicker Daniel Carlson has made 38 straight field goals, the longest active streak in the NFL and six shy of Adam Vinatieri’s league record. The Raiders are 0-5 in their past five games following a bye week.

Prediction: The Raiders get their second win of the season. The Texans don’t really have a chance to win games unless their defense is stout, and Las Vegas has the talent on offense — despite issues — to overwhelm Houston. With Renfrow further removed from a concussion suffered in Week 2, he has a chance to have a big performance. 

Raiders 28, Texans 20 —Ben Arthur
 

Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-3) (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Overview: The Chiefs and 49ers will match up for the first time since San Francisco lost to Kansas City in Super Bowl LIV. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs head out west to face one of the NFL’s best defenses in the 49ers. San Francisco has allowed just 14.8 points per game, No. 2 in the league. However, Kansas City does not have trouble scoring points, averaging a league-best 29.8 points per contest.

The Chiefs have won three of their last four games while the Niners have won two of their last three. However, both teams are coming off losing performances. The Chiefs lost a close one at home to the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills, 24-20, while the injury-ravaged 49ers lost on the road to the Atlanta Falcons, 28-14.

Matchup to watch: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce vs. 49ers safety Jimmie Ward

With Tyreek Hill plying his trade in Miami, Kelce is Mahomes’ unquestioned No. 1 target. Kelce leads Kansas City in receptions (41), receiving yards (455) and touchdown catches (7). He also leads all tight ends in those categories.

The 49ers will likely use a combination of players to try and limit Kelce’s touches. But with Talanoa Hufanga still in concussion protocol, the experienced Ward could be the main guy on Kelce. Ward missed the first four weeks of the regular season with a hamstring injury, then missed last week’s game against Atlanta with a hand injury that he suffered in Week 5 against the Panthers. Ward will wear a club to protect a healing broken bone in his left hand. However, he says he’ll be up to the challenge of trying to shut down Kelce.  

Key Stat: San Francisco has won six straight home games, the longest active home winning streak in the NFL.

Prediction: Even though the 49ers are a tough out at home, the Chiefs are 14-1 in their past 15 non-conference games. With San Francisco still dealing with a rash of injuries to several frontline players, I’ll take the healthier team here. 

Chiefs 34, 49ers 28 —Eric D. Williams

Seattle Seahawks (3-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-2) (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Overview: The Seahawks travel to the City of Angels to face the Bolts on the road for the first time since 2014. The Chargers have won three of the past four games against the Seahawks. However, Seattle leads the all-time series 26-25. Seattle coach Pete Carroll is 2-3 against the Chargers.

Los Angeles is riding a three-game winning streak, while the Seahawks have won two of their past three. The Bolts are hopeful to get back receiver Keenan Allen, who has missed the past five games with a hamstring issue.

Matchup to watch: Seahawks OLB Uchenna Nwosu vs. Chargers LT Jamaree Salyer

The Bolts have allowed just seven sacks this season, tied for the fewest in the NFL. Nwosu tops Seattle with three sacks, and the USC product will be facing his former team for the first time since joining the Seahawks in free agency this past offseason. Salyer has not allowed a sack in three starts since replacing Pro Bowler Rashawn Slater, who is out for the season with a torn biceps.

The Seahawks need to get consistent pressure on Justin Herbert or it could be a long day against one of the most talented throwers in the NFL. Herbert is fourth in the league in passing yards (1,716) and tied for sixth in passing touchdowns (10). His 19 games with at least 300 passing yards since 2000 leads the NFL.

Key stat: Rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen has an interception in four straight games, tied for the longest streak in franchise history. He is just the third rookie since 2000 to record a pick in four straight games.

Prediction: Seattle rookie running back Kenneth Walker III should find production against a Chargers defense giving up 125 rushing yards per contest, No. 23 in the NFL. However, the Bolts are 7-5 at home since the start of the 2021 season, while the Seahawks are 5-7 during the same timeframe on the road. The Chargers should score enough points on offense and get stops defensively in critical moments of the game to secure a victory. 

Chargers 27, Seahawks 23 —Eric D. Williams

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (3-3) (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

Overview: The Steelers aren’t sure if they’ll have Kenny Pickett at quarterback after the rookie sustained a concussion last weekend. But if he’s healthy, he’s playing, according to coach Mike Tomlin. Pickett has not been brilliant since entering the mix against the Jets in Week 4, but it’s not the type of year in which the Steelers will compete for a playoff berth. They’ll soon have their eyes on the 2023 NFL Draft. Pittsburgh’s defense is good, but it’s not so good that it can carry the team.

Mike McDaniel said he is preparing to have Tua Tagovailoa start. So after missing two weeks with a concussion, Tagovailoa should return to an offense that sorely missed him. The Dolphins have lost three straight games and though they’re not quite in panic mode, they’re definitely not working with the same swagger after their 3-0 start. Tua’s return might just help them get back on track. Certainly, he’ll be an upgrade over Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater, both of whom struggled enormously in Tagovailoa’s absence.

Matchup to watch: Dolphins left tackles vs. Steelers edge Alex Highsmith

Highsmith has been as fun as any edge player to watch this season. He’s really having a moment, with 6.5 sacks on the season, already a career high. And there should be some question as to whether the Dolphins can handle him. Tackle Terron Armstead was injured and missed last week. Tackle Greg Little was a mess in relief. Considering Tua is coming back from a concussion, he will need elite protection on his blind side.

Key stat: Tyreek Hill, who leads the NFL with 701 receiving yards, is already the second player in Dolphins history to record three games with 150-plus receiving yards in a single season (joining Mark Duper, who did it four times in 1984). 

Prediction: The Steelers just aren’t a good football team right now. They’re not particularly dangerous. So as long as Tua is healthy — and stays healthy — this should be an easy win for Miami.

Dolphins 27, Steelers 13 –Henry McKenna

Monday, Oct. 24, 2022

Chicago Bears (2-4) at New England Patriots (3-3) (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Overview: Patriots coach Bill Belichick went on a 1,000-word rant about how good the Chicago Bears are, so naturally, the Bears are doomed. 

Chicago will be on 11 days’ rest come Monday night but their second primetime game in as many weeks still takes a toll (on the team and on the rest of the football-watching country). Sorry, that was harsh. But the Bears aren’t playing good football right now and have a lot of things to figure out, especially offensively. Running right into a stifling Patriots defense with headliner Matthew Judon, who has already racked up six sacks this season, isn’t going to help matters.

Whether QB Mac Jones plays is the big question mark here, but with the performance we’ve seen this season out of rookie Bailey Zappe, it might not matter. Zappe has completed 51 of 70 pass attempts over the past three games for a total of 596 yards and four touchdowns against just one interception. He’s not a bad option if New England feels Jones’ ankle could use more rest.

Matchup to watch: Patriots LB Matthew Judon vs. Bears QB Justin Fields

All I can say is… oof. Judon has been a menace to opposing quarterbacks all season. He’s tied for the league lead in sacks and has 26 total pressures through six games. That could spell a lot of trouble for Fields behind a struggling offensive line unless he can start making some quicker decisions with the football. The Bears have allowed 23 sacks this season, which is tied for the most in the NFL.

Key stats: Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots are 21-10 in Monday night games, and the Patriots have won five straight matchups against the Bears, dating back to 2002. 

Prediction: Belichick will build you up only to tear you down. It’s one of the many mind games he plays, and he used it this week when talking about the Bears. Like Liam Neeson’s nemesis says on the phone during “Taken”: “Good luck.”

Patriots 19, Bears 3 —Carmen Vitali

FOX Sports’ Week 7 NFL preview was compiled by:

AFC South reporter Ben Arthur (@benyarthur)
AFC East reporter Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis)
NFC West reporter Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams)
NFC East reporter Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano)
NFC North reporter Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV)
Dallas Cowboys reporter David Helman (@davidhelman_)

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