NFL Week 5 best bets: Fading Jaxson Dart and Bo Nix and showing belief in Jacksonville

Don’t call it a hot streak!

Back-to-back winning weeks and almost four units of profit is a nice little run in the early going here for my NFL Projection Model. Could have been even better if the Rams didn’t let us down two weeks ago — I’m not still salty or anything, I promise. Also, I apologize for betting on the Tennessee Titans. I firmly believe they’re in the “do not bet” category for me because of just how bad they’ve been. Head coach Brian Callahan is now 3-19 ATS in his career. So, no thanks.

Last week’s record: 4-2, +2.10 units
Season record: 13-8, +4.40 units, +19.0% ROI

Four bets to start this week. It’s early in the week, so plenty of opportunity to get involved later, especially with all the games with major injury uncertainty as it stands today. Stay tuned for any added plays throughout the week, and those can even come on Sunday morning. In fact, the last two weeks I’ve added plays on Sunday and they’re 2-0. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck!

Week 5 best bets

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints under 41.5 (-115)

You’ll need to shop around for this price, but there is plenty of value if you’re not able to get this exact price. I’ll start off this analysis by saying I’m fading Jaxson Dart. Sure, the Giants upset the undefeated Chargers, and everyone wants to credit the change at quarterback, but looking a little bit closer at that game, there is some cause for concern. First, outside of the scripted drive, the Giants had two drives that actually moved the ball. They ended up winning because they had two drives start inside the Chargers’ 5-yard line. On the other side of the ball, the Saints offensive line is going to have its hands full with this Giants’ defensive front. I think this game struggles to get into the 40s.

Worst price to bet: Under 40.5 (-110)

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets over 47 (-110)

Do I need to say anything about the Jets offense going up against the putrid Cowboys defense? I don’t think so. On the other side of the ball, the Jets defense isn’t very good either. Both teams should have no problem moving the ball. It just comes down to whether than can turn drives into touchdowns.

Worst price to bet: Over 47 (-115)

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles under 44.5 (-112)

Again, you’ll have to shop around for this price, but I’m not buying into the Bo Nix performance against the Bengals defense on Monday night. And quite honestly, Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio going up against Nix seems like quite the mismatch. As for the Eagles offense, I’m not sure what to make of it. They’ve looked pretty bad for the majority of this season but seemingly can light it up when it’s all clicking. The problem is that I don’t know if they can just flip the switch at any time. Two good defenses here against two quarterbacks who have a pretty low floor: Let’s root for a shutout.

Worst price to bet: Under 44 (-110)

Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 (-105) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

I won’t lie to you, I’m terrified of fading the Chiefs. But this is a steep price for a team that has struggled to consistently drive down the field for the majority of the season. Yes, Xavier Worthy was back last week, and they lit up the Ravens, but the offensive explosion had more to do with the Ravens losing just about every defensive starter throughout the course of the game. I’m actually a bit of a buyer on the Jacksonville offense. It’s taken a bit, but Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence are starting to jell and should only improve if Brian Thomas Jr. can get back on track.

Worst price to bet: Jaguars +3.5 (-115)

(Photo of Jaxson Dart: Al Bello / Getty Images)