2025 NFL MVP Odds: Allen The Favorite

With Week 5 NFL action on the horizon, there are some major changes in the NFL MVP betting market. The top spot belongs to Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (-105) and Los Angeles Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert (+600) is lurking behind him.

Below, you’ll find the odds for NFL MVP from FanDuel which look a lot different than they did last week, especially with the news of Lamar Jackson’s injury which is expected to keep him out at least two weeks.

2025-26 NFL MVP Odds

Odds as of October 1st from FanDuel 

The injury bug hasn’t been kind to MVP candidates this season. As you can see, Brock Purdy and Joe Burrow are both off the odds board due to injuries and now Lamar Jackson is expected to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury. Jackson’s injury, combined with the Ravens’ 1-3 start, dropped him from second on the odds board at +320 last week, all the way down to +2700.

The time to bet Josh Allen for MVP was before the season started as we’ve now seen his odds with a minus sign in front of them. Allen was +170 prior to Week 4, and now he sits at -105. Last week vs. the Saints, Allen accumulated three touchdowns and was in MVP form picking up a big first down with his legs in the third quarter. 

Justin Herbert continues to impress and he’s jumped from third on the odds board to second, though it’s worth noting his odds actually went from +500 to +600 this week. That speaks to the distance that Allen is putting between himself and the rest of the pack. At this point it almost feels like an injury is the only thing that can stop Allen from winning the MVP.

The biggest riser on the board was Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes who entered Week 4 at +2500 and shot all the way up the odds board to +650. After a mediocre start to the season, Mahomes is now right back in the MVP conversation thanks to the Chiefs’ win over Baltimore when he threw for 270 yards and four touchdowns (zero interceptions).

Why Josh Allen Is nFL MVP Favorite

Josh Allen has been first or second on the MVP odds board since the summer and he’s now the clear favorite for MVP. Allen took over the No. 1 position on the odds after Buffalo’s week 1 win over Lamar Jackson and the Ravens and he never looked back.

Through four weeks, Allen has 964 passing yards, 159 rushing yards, 10 total touchdowns and only one interception. He’s a gamebreaking machine and sits alone atop the NFL MVP odds for good reason. 

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Mahomes is Climbing the Board

Patrick Mahomes’ stats look a lot more MVP like after last week’s win. Mahomes now has 939 passing yards, 130 rushing yards, nine total touchdowns and one interception. It’s amazing what one good week can do for you this early in the season because things were looking bleak for Mahomes who was at +2500 last week (Kudos to you if you bought low).

With wide receiver Xavier Worthy back and Rashee Rice not far behind him, don’t be surprised if Mahomes continues to climb up the MVP ranks.

NFL MVP Winner History

NFL MVP Odds Betting Strategy & Trends

All you have to do is determine which quarterback you think will break out in 2025. No other position has taken home the MVP trophy since Adrian Peterson’s spectacular 2,000-yard campaign in 2012. The odds of a non-quarterback winning the award are so long that Saquon Barkley currently sits 18th on the odds board at +5000. Having said that, Barkley did finish third in the award voting last year.

So when it comes to betting on NFL MVP handicapping, we’ll stick to quarterbacks only for now, and perhaps switch gears during the season if a non-QB really starts to separate. Historically, the two largest factors that determine the NFL MVP are touchdowns and team wins.

Since 2010, Matt Ryan is the only player to win MVP on a team that had fewer than 12 wins. Thus, we’re searching for a quarterback who has a chance to lead his team to a high number of wins, while contributing a high number of touchdowns in those victories.

With futures bets, it’s important to snag odds early. The lines will move as we get closer to the Super Bowl. Sportsbooks update the odds as players up their production or are plagued by injuries. Keep in mind that if you were to back a player in the MVP race and he suffers a season-ending injury, most sportsbooks will give you your money back since you technically didn’t lose the bet and have no way of winning it.

Teams With the most NFL MVPs

The Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Arizona Cardinals, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have never produced an NFL MVP.