Betting 49ers-Rams: Siding with the Rams and the under, plus props to consider
Week 5 of the NFL season gets underway with a matchup of NFC West rivals when the San Francisco 49ers visit the Los Angeles Rams on “Thursday Night Football.”
Both teams are 3-1, with the Rams’ lone loss coming in Week 3 against the Philadelphia Eagles thanks to a blocked field goal. The 49ers’ defeat occurred Sunday to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Los Angeles won both matchups last season on its way to the division title. Plagued by injuries, San Francisco finished last. For the NFC West crown this season, the Rams (+125) are a slight favorite over the 49ers (+175), who again have been hit by injuries, as Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are all out.
The Rams enter as 8.5-point favorites for Thursday’s game, with the spread moving all the way from LA -3.5 due to the 49ers’ injuries. The teams meet again in Week 10 in San Francisco.
Here are the odds and trends, plus picks, props and analysis from our experts to help you bet Thursday night’s game.
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET.
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Game picks | Prop bets | Betting trends
Game bets
Notable player props, bets
Christian McCaffrey to go OVER 57.5 rushing yards (-115)
Bowen: McCaffrey hasn’t been efficient on the ground through the first four weeks, averaging only 3.3 yards per carry. However, he is seeing steady volume (17.3 carries per game), and Kyle Shanahan will continue to feature the run game — especially with San Francisco’s wide receiver injuries. Take CMC to hit the over.
Blake Corum to go OVER 29.5 rushing yards (-125)
Moody: Corum has cleared this line in two of the past three games and has had at least eight rushing attempts in each of the past two. His usage is encouraging, as the Rams will want him involved in the backfield to keep Kyren Williams fresh. Los Angeles’ offensive line ranks 13th in run block win rate and is talented enough to neutralize the 49ers’ defensive line. With Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall ruled out, the Rams could play with a lead, further benefiting Corum.
Davante Adams to score anytime touchdown (+130)
Maldonado: Adams is the definition of touchdown equity, commanding the most red zone targets in the NFL and the second-highest target share overall. If Los Angeles scores through the air, there’s a strong chance Adams is on the receiving end. Anytime touchdown is the core bet because Adams’ volume and usage fully support it, but for those chasing bigger payouts, there’s a longer shot that is worth a sprinkle. Adams to score two or more touchdowns (+750) taps into his league-leading red zone role and Matthew Stafford‘s trust near the goal line. It’s volatile and far from guaranteed, but the matchup sets up perfectly against a 49ers defense that has allowed 75% of road touchdowns through the air. Adams is the most likely Ram to cash in in the red zone — and he has scored first for the Rams in back-to-back games.
Tutu Atwell to record 30+ receiving yards (+425)
Walder: This isn’t just because Atwell hit an 88-yard reception Sunday on what was only his second reception of the year. But that play is indicative of why my model likes Atwell’s longer-shot overs. Among wide receivers with at least 40 routes run this season, Atwell’s 24% rate of deep fades and go routes ranks eighth most, his 54% vertical route ranks fifth most and three seconds after the snap he is on average 11.5 yards downfield (11th most). Atwell, who is running a route 50% of the time, can easily end up with zero receptions in any given game. But any one reception can go for a long gain — and I’m playing the upside that comes along with that.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
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The Rams are 3-1 for the first time since 2021, when they started 7-1 and won the Super Bowl.
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The Rams have covered all four meetings since the start of 2023. Four of the past five meetings have gone over the total.
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Since the start of last season, overs are 10-0 in 49ers games following a loss.
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The 49ers are 0-6 ATS as underdogs since 2022 (including the playoffs).
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