Betting Chiefs-Jaguars: Game picks, QB props and a play on Etienne
Week 5 of the NFL season concludes with the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars on “Monday Night Football.”
The Chiefs, who walloped the Baltimore Ravens last week, have won two straight to even their record. Meanwhile, the Jaguars improved to 3-1 following a road victory over the San Francisco 49ers.
Kansas City is the second choice to win the AFC West at +140, just behind the Los Angeles Chargers (+110), and Jacksonville is the No. 2 pick in the AFC South at +140, trailing only the Indianapolis Colts (-110).
The Chiefs enter as 3.5-point road favorites for Monday’s game, scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN.
Here are the odds and trends, plus picks, props and analysis from our experts to help you bet the game.
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET.
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Game picks | Prop bets | Betting trends
11:36
Travis Etienne Jr. applauds Liam Coen’s offense, Travis Hunter’s 2-way role
Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr. joins The Rich Eisen Show to talk about playing in Liam Coen’s new offensive system, the changes he’s seen from last season to now, rookie WR/CB Travis Hunter playing both sides of the ball and more!
Game bets
Notable player props, bets
Patrick Mahomes to go OVER 251.5 passing yards (-115)
Bowen: The Jaguars feature an opportunistic defense, one that leads the league with nine interceptions. But they have allowed 233.5 passing yards per game (23rd in the NFL), plus this unit leans on split-safety coverages (two high safeties on 53.7% of coverage snaps). I expect Andy Reid to have answers on Monday night to create open voids for Mahomes at the second and third levels of the field.
Mahomes to go OVER 0.5 interceptions (-110)
Loza: Mahomes threw 11 picks over 16 games (12th most) during the 2024 regular season. He has recorded only one INT so far this season, but that figures to change versus a retooled Jacksonville defense that leads the league in takeaways (13).
Trevor Lawrence to go UNDER 33.5 pass attempts (-115)
Walder: The Jaguars have leaned toward the run thus far under first-year head coach Liam Coen, ranking 25th in pass rate over expectation (-9%), per NFL Next Gen Stats. It would make sense to take a run-leaning approach in this contest specifically, as the Chiefs defense ranks fourth in EPA allowed per dropback, but 30th in EPA allowed per designed run. My model thinks this line is a little high, putting the chances that Lawrence goes under 33.5 pass attempts at 64%, or -178.
Travis Etienne Jr. to go OVER 65.5 rushing yards (-110)
Maldonado: Etienne handled over three quarters of Jacksonville’s backfield touches last week, his highest workload all season, and is averaging just under 100 yards per game on the ground. Kansas City is allowing 5.2 yards per carry to running backs (28th in the league) and has been gashed repeatedly on early downs. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are built to lean on the run. They’re first in rushing yard differential, consistently dictating tempo behind a physical offensive line. Even if the game script tilts slightly negative, Etienne’s role doesn’t disappear. He’s too involved and too efficient against a defense that’s soft in this exact area. You’re betting on sustained volume over splash plays.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
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Mahomes is 4-1 against the spread versus the Jaguars, including playoffs (4-0 ATS in regular season).
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The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS as home underdogs since the start of last season.
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The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their past five games as favorites.
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Since 2022, the Chiefs are 4-11 ATS on extra rest in the regular season.
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