Betting Jets-Dolphins and Bengals-Broncos: Why we like the Unders in MNF doubleheader
Here are the odds and trends, plus picks, props and analysis from our experts to help you bet the games.
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET Sportsbook.
The Jets and Dolphins both enter Monday looking for win No. 1 on the season, though New York nearly got its first last week. The Jets blocked a late field-goal attempt and returned it for a go-ahead score against Tampa Bay in Week 3, but Baker Mayfield rallied the Buccaneers to the game-winning kick as time expired.
The Dolphins were able to keep things close with the Buffalo Bills into the fourth quarter before eventually dropping their third straight.
Miami is a 2.5-point favorite in Monday night’s first game. The Dolphins and Jets split their series last season.
Pamela Maldonado: Yuck, I don’t like this game at all. Everything about Jets-Dolphins screams sloppy, low-scoring football rather than anything exciting. Miami’s defense has been a disaster, but the offense isn’t exactly lighting it up either. The Jets want to run the ball and shrink the game. Miami wants to throw but hasn’t been explosive, and both teams are bottom five in turnover differential.
That’s usually the recipe for drives that stall out instead of ending in touchdowns. Add in two quarterbacks (Justin Fields and Tua Tagovailoa) who are inconsistent at best and two offenses that have struggled to sustain anything for four quarters, and this total feels inflated. It’s like trying to turn leftovers into a five-star meal. No matter how you plate it, it’s still leftovers. Ugly matchups tend to stay ugly.
Ollie Gordon II Over 30 yards rushing
Matt Bowen: In the Week 3 loss to the Bills, Gordon had 38 yards rushing on nine carries. Plus, with his north/south style and contact balance, Gordon adds a much needed physical element to the Miami run game. He can see volume between the tackles versus the Jets.
Mason Taylor Over 19.5 receiving yards (-120)
Liz Loza: Taylor’s routes run and targets drawn have steadily increased since the start of the season. Josh Reynolds‘ return might create a slight dip in the rookie’s opportunities, but the presence of Justin Fields under center should better his chances of clearing 20 receiving yards.
Additionally the matchup is too good to ignore. Miami has given up an average of over 71 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends (sixth-most) with Tyler Warren (in his professional debut), Austin Hooper, and Dalton Kincaid all heartily clearing the above line.
Defensive props
Isaiah Williams 1+ touchdowns and Jets D/ST Over 0.5 touchdowns (+25303)
Seth Walder: If Williams, a wide receiver with zero receptions on the season, is going to score a touchdown it almost certainly is going to happen in the return game. That’s why the parlay works here: it’s essentially one score for the price of two. Williams took over as the Jets punt returner after the team cut Xavier Gipson earlier this year, and he’s also returned a couple of kicks as well.
Of course it’s a long shot, but I like his chances to score at better than 253-1.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
-
The Dolphins are 10-4-1 against the spread in the past 15 matchups with the Jets. They are 7-2 ATS in the past nine home meetings.
-
Tua Tagovailoa is 5-9 ATS in prime-time games (0-4 ATS at home). The Dolphins are 4-9 ATS in prime time under Mike McDaniel.
-
Dolphins games are 4-0 to the over in their past four matchups following a loss.
-
The Jets are 6-15 ATS in their past 21 games when the line is between +3 and -3. The Dolphins are 0-3 ATS in their past three games in that spot.
-
The Jets are 1-11 ATS in games off more than six days rest since 2021.
Things did not go well for Cincinnati in their first full game without Joe Burrow, as the Bengals were trounced 48-10 by the Minnesota Vikings last week.
Week 3 wasn’t kind to Denver either, as the Broncos saw a 20-13 fourth-quarter lead turn into a 23-20 divisional loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.
Both teams will be looking to get back on track Monday night, but the Broncos enter as big favorites at -7.5.
Bengals-Broncos game bets
Under 44.5
Maldonado: Start with Cincinnati. Their point production is inflated by garbage time and short fields. They’re bottom two in both yards per play and EPA, and have only 10 plays of 15-plus yards all season, the fewest in the NFL. With Jake Browning inefficient and under heavy pressure, it’s hard to imagine them sustaining long scoring drives.
Denver isn’t exactly built to blow teams out either, sitting 31st in offensive success rate. Add in a Bengals defense that allows touchdowns on just 27.3% of red zone trips, the second-lowest mark in the league, and possessions are more likely to end in field goals than touchdowns. In other words, this feels like a slog.
Notable player props, bets
J.K. Dobbins Over 66.5 rushing yards (-115).
Loza: Fresh off of a comeback campaign in Los Angeles, Dobbins has continued to cook for the Broncos. His 41 totes have accounted for nearly 55% of Denver’s rushing opportunities. He’s also impressed with his chances, registering seven runs of 10 or more yards (tied for first among RBs with Jonathan Taylor and James Cook).
That’s a trend that figures to continue against a Bengals run defense that’s allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing RBs. As 8.5-point favorites, Dobbins should also capitalize on a positive game script. Expect the former Charger to flirt with 70 rushing yards on Monday night.
Ja’Marr Chase longest reception of 25 or more yards (+120)
Bowen: The Bengals need to set up Browning early in this game with more high-percentage throws. That means screens, crossers, slants and more. Think of catch and run targets here for Chase, which cater to his explosive ability and ball carrier vision in space.
Defensive props
Broncos D/ST Over 0.5 touchdowns (+500)
Walder: I’m on record as being a Browning believer … and I still am, as evidenced by my picks above, but when it comes to props I largely place my trust in my statistical models. My defense and special teams touchdown model looks at the facts of this game — a good Denver defense against a backup quarterback who got absolutely rocked by the Vikings defense last week — and sees a Broncos defense or special teams score as being unusually likely.
The model makes the fair price here +335, one of the shortest D/ST touchdown odds I’ve ever seen it spit out.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
-
The Broncos are one of three teams 0-3 against the spread (Saints, Texans).
-
Bo Nix is 8-2 ATS as a favorite (0-2 ATS this season).
-
The Bengals are 31-21 ATS on the road under Zac Taylor (7-8 ATS without Joe Burrow).
-
The Broncos are 6-1 ATS as home favorite since 2024. The Bengals are 0-3 ATS in their past three road games.
Source link
