Bleacher Report’s Expert NFL Super Bowl LIX Picks

Davenport: Kansas City -1.5

As much as folks like to see any “evil empire” (i.e. a team that has enjoyed continued success—people are mean) thwarted, the Chiefs are going to do what no team in NFL history has and win a third consecutive Super Bowl.

There’s not really a facet of the game that can be pointed to that puts Kansas City over the top, either. The Eagles arguably have the better team on paper. Philly can use Saquon Barkley to keep Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense off the field. But the Chiefs are just so battle-tested. They’ve turned winning close games into a routine this season. And the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.

Cue the Imperial Theme from Star Wars.

In this exact spot last year, I wrote this: “I’m done. I can’t pick against the Chiefs anymore. They had an off year? Doesn’t seem to matter. The 49ers are the more talented team? Don’t care. At this point, you just can’t go against Mahomes and Andy Reid, especially with points in your back pocket.”

This year, same deal but replace “49ers” with “Eagles” and change “with points in your back pocket” to “while having to lay less than a field goal.”

Hanford: Philadelphia +1.5

My gut picks the Chiefs while my brain tells me the Eagles and this time, I’ll trust my head, knowing that I may regret it, but Philadelphia has the ingredients you need to slow down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Eagles dominate the trenches on both sides of the ball, but their pass rush should have a major impact. Mahomes was sacked 36 times this season, and I expect Vic Fangio to find ways to continue that trend. Keeping Mahomes in a shrinking pocket and not allowing him to create should slow down the Chiefs offense enough to allow the Eagles to control the tempo, lean on the run game, grind out an upset win and complete their revenge tour.

I keep thinking back to Super Bowl LV, when a banged-up Chiefs line was steamrolled by an aggressive Buccaneers pass rush. That game quickly turned into a rout, and I do expect the Chiefs’ line to struggle against a talented Philadelphia front. Kansas City’s line has been an issue for most of the season, and while moving Joe Thuney to tackle did help, it also made the Chiefs more vulnerable along the interior. If the Chiefs lose, I expect that matchup along the line of scrimmage to be the reason.

That said, I can’t bring myself to pick against Mahomes and Andy Reid with two weeks to prepare. I expect a relatively low-scoring game, and I trust those two to conjure scoring drives in such a game a lot more than I trust Jalen Hurts and Kellen Moore. Hurts remains shaky under pressure, and I believe Moore will struggle with the different looks that Steve Spagnuolo throws at him on Sunday.

During the regular season, Kansas City ranked eighth against the run, giving up 4.1 yards per carry, which ranked seventh leaguewide. If you exclude Week 18, when they sat their starters, the Chiefs have allowed 166 rushing yards per game while giving up 5.4 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley has been on a mission, averaging 147.3 rushing yards and scoring five touchdowns through three playoff games. Unless Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has a switch to flip, the Eagles will ground and pound their way to victory.

O’Donnell: Philadelphia +1.5

I’m prepared for this. As a Giants fan with nearly as much dislike for the Eagles as I have love for the Giants, I wasn’t ready during the Philly Special year, nor really for Super Bowl LVII’s close call, but I am ready this time around. I’m also simply taking history’s side. As incredible as Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo and the Chiefs are, three in a row is daunting and the Eagles have the pieces in place to upend that bid for glory. Getting points here is a bonus, as I’ll take Philadelphia outright.

Sobleski: Philadelphia +1.5

Well, I’ve picked against the Chiefs this entire season. Why stop now? The thought has always been this team isn’t as good as previous incarnations, particularly at specific points within the roster. While this may be true, the experience the Chiefs have, particularly in big games and critical moments, means an opponent must be good enough to not just win, but knock the back-to-back champs out. Based on style of play, the Eagles have that ability.

Philadelphia is the NFL’s best team in the trenches. The squad has the ability to create big plays in both the run and pass games. Quarterback Jalen Hurts can create as both a runner and passer. Defensively, coordinator Vic Fangio is the most influential coach of this generation and he has the best defensive tackle in the world with Jalen Carter to take over the contest. If not now, when?