Buffalo Bills 2024 season: Eight bold (and not so bold) predictions

While much stayed the same over the past few seasons, the Buffalo Bills have endured more big changes to the top of their roster than those past few years combined. And their first foray into the 2024 season begins Sunday, Sept. 8 in Orchard Park against the Arizona Cardinals.

But before we get to the first game, let’s take a dive into some hypotheticals for the season. With perhaps some lowered expectations from previous years, what could happen both from a player and team perspective?

Here are our annual Bills predictions, ranging from bold to not-so-bold, for 2024.

Eventually, the Bills unleash Dalton Kincaid as close to a full-time player

I’ll start with something that isn’t a prediction but a fact. Quarterback Josh Allen is the best player on the roster and the number one reason they can be a successful team in 2024. With that out of the way, Dalton Kincaid is easily their second-most talented offensive skill player on the team. His receiving ability — between his size, speed, movement skills, route running, coverage recognition, body positioning, and excellent hands — makes him one of the most naturally gifted players on the roster. For the Bills to reach their ceiling on offense, they need to commit to Kincaid in a big way in 2024.

However, at least early in the season, the size of his role could be a slight concern because of how much the team loves Dawson Knox. While his mere presence won’t make them keep Kincaid on the bench more often than not, Knox’s presence could cap Kincaid’s overall ceiling in the early portion of the season. When Knox went on injured reserve in 2023, Kincaid broke out in a big way. During that breakout, Kincaid played on 74 percent of the offensive snaps. But after Knox’s return, Kincaid’s usage returned to early season levels despite him being one of the best players on the field leading up to it. Over the team’s final six games, playoffs included, Kincaid’s offensive snaps dropped to 53.6 percent. Upon Knox’s return, the team also ran less 12 personnel than expected under offensive coordinator Joe Brady. From Week 14 through the playoffs, the Bills ran 12 personnel on only 14.8 percent of their snaps — ranked 22nd in the NFL.

There will come a point in the year where the Bills must fully commit to Kincaid and give him far more than a 55 to 60 percent snap share. With so many questions about the receiver room, Kincaid stands out as their best non-Allen avenue to consistent offensive production. A naturally gifted, potentially game-changing tight end on the roster deserves a role commensurate to his talent. By the end of the year, I wouldn’t be surprised if Kincaid is closer to the 75-to-80 percent of offensive snaps per game range.

GO DEEPER

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No WR stands out enough to keep the Bills from going WR1 hunting in 2025

The Bills almost completely refreshed their receiver room which leaves both opportunity and an unknown quality to the group consisting of Khalil Shakir, rookie Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The Bills like all of them to a certain degree. Shakir will be their trusted slot receiver who seems perfect for the role with some yards after the catch potential. Coleman appears to be a short-area target earner with some red-zone skills. Samuel can do a little of everything in the quick game. And Hollins is a better route runner than you’d think but in a rotational role.

Despite having a bunch of players they like filling spots, no one has really stood out as more than just a role player in the offense. It might be a different player every week that leads the team in receiving, which could hinder some of the team’s overall offensive consistency. Opinions about the end of Stefon Diggs’ tenure with the Bills are split, but there’s no debating how much he brought to the offense in his early Bills career as a true number one, game-changing type of talent. And with plenty of draft capital plus cap space in the 2025 offseason, the wide receiver room looks primed to go after someone who can profile as the “WR1” through the rest of Allen’s prime.

The Bills make an in-season move for a veteran OL

This year, I’ve been a broken record about the lack of experience with the backup offensive line, as all four players have a combined 47 regular season snaps. Combined with the unsustainable 2023 result of all five starters being available every game through the playoffs, that’s a recipe for some interesting results and potential pitfalls once injuries strike. On top of that, the Bills have at least two questions in their starting group. Left guard David Edwards has not started a game since early in the 2022 season and has had some bad reps during the preseason. Center Connor McGovern will be playing the position full-time for the first time in his NFL career. All considered, there could be some more unnerving moments for Allen in the pocket than in 2023. As the Bills get more information about this year’s roster, don’t be surprised if general manager Brandon Beane targets an experienced offensive lineman either via trade or free agency during the first two months.

Christian Benford becomes one of their best defenders and earns a contract extension before the 2025 season

The summer has revealed the team’s strengths and weaknesses, and one of those strengths is third-year cornerback Christian Benford. With his excellent play all camp long, Benford has completely frozen 2022 first-round pick Kaiir Elam out of the starting discussion and looks poised to go coast-to-coast as the starter without any asterisks. Benford’s potential shows a player who is usually in the right place in their heavy zone scheme and can deal with both physicality and speed while making a clutch pass breakup in a one-on-one opportunity. Add his tackling and run support, and you get a foundational piece of the defense moving forward. If Benford continues on this trajectory, and without any cornerback signed to a big deal past 2024, Benford has every chance to be viewed as a priority extension candidate once the season ends by Beane and head coach Sean McDermott.

Rookie Javon Solomon eventually equals or eclipses Von Miller for weekly defensive snaps

This one is a little spicy because it involves a fifth-round rookie and a likely Hall-of-Fame edge rusher, but they are going in opposite directions. This prediction is more about Solomon than it is about Miller. Solomon has legitimate pass-rushing potential if brought along correctly, and routinely flashed with good reps during training camp from the start of the summer to the finish. The Bills have to be feeling cautiously optimistic that they found someone who could far outplay his draft slot. With his special teams abilities, Solomon seems like a good bet to be active early in the year, likely with a handful of defensive snaps sprinkled in. And as he continues to get more comfortable, there is a distinct chance the Bills up his rep count by November or December. Miller’s 2024 outlook is likely a 20-to-30 snap rotational rusher that they want to keep fresh. If Solomon shows during the regular season what he did in the summer, that 20-to-30 snap mark is completely attainable for the impressive Day 3 rookie.

Safety remains an issue all season

File this under the not-so-bold category, but this group can potentially hold the defense back all year. If they have one starter who exceeds expectations in 2024, it would go a long way. But as of now, they will likely have to help that group with their defensive calls. In my yearly All-22 review, strong safety Taylor Rapp graded at a below-average level in his first season in the Bills’ defense as he took numerous chances that left the Bills at a disadvantage. Then at free safety, the Bills will have to hope either Mike Edwards or rookie Cole Bishop takes to the defense in short order, that Damar Hamlin can be far better than he was in spot starts earlier in his career, or that they can convince Micah Hyde to return. Even if one of those happens, Rapp remains a concern as a locked-in starter. Don’t be surprised if some explosive plays happen early in the season because of the safety group.

Bills fall short for the AFC East crown for the first time since 2019…

This is not because I believe the Bills are a bad team. They have some things they’ll need to figure out on the fly, but at their core, they have a talented enough roster to make some waves again in 2024. The combination of the Jets roster and plum schedule makes them the first legitimate threat to take the AFC East crown away from the Bills since 2019. The Jets have an excellent defense, one of the best offensive lines in the NFL if they stay healthy, the high-end skill position players in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, plus a point-to-prove quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. The Jets could easily begin the year 6-2 with games against the Titans, Patriots twice, Broncos, Vikings, and Steelers. All of that points to a potential 11-win team.

On the other hand, the Bills have a horrible stretch to begin the year, combining tough opponents, multiple road games (including three straight) and four night games out of their first six. Then they have a stretch from November into December where they take on three legitimate Super Bowl contenders (Chiefs, 49ers and Lions) in four games. Given some of their personnel issues to begin the year, the Bills might have to play catch-up all year.

…But finish the year red hot, get to 10-7 and a Wild Card berth

The Bills will need to answer many more questions than they have over the past few years, but that doesn’t take away from one basic, yet undeniable fact. The Bills have Allen, in the prime of his career, playing at quarterback for them. And if the defense has more down games than they have in previous seasons, it could open the Bills up for more potential Allen moments of brilliance within the regular season.

Generally speaking, for most teams in the NFL with a franchise quarterback, the team goes as that quarterback goes. But that might even be more true of the 2024 Bills. Due to the defensive questions, we’ll get a chance to see if he can elevate the team in a way that he hasn’t had to do much of recently during the regular season. Mostly, their defense has been good and even helped steal some games in the past. But now, he may need to go score-for-score to pick up the defense far more often than he has been used to in recent regular seasons. The Bills have sneaky weekly shootout potential.

Allen can hit a new achievement level in his career in 2024, and by the end of the year, many of those question marks with the rest of the roster should have found some answers — or at least a bandage to get through the rest of the season and the playoffs. By the end of the regular season, the Bills may wind up as one of the hottest teams in the league and peaking at the right time, setting them up to be one of the most formidable first-round opponents for a division winner. The road to the Super Bowl may be more challenging this year, but it also may provide the Bills an opportunity to do something they have yet to do under McDermott — win a road playoff game. There’s a distinct chance that even if the Bills don’t win the AFC East, they’ll be playing like the best AFC East team at the end of the year.

(Top photo of Dalton Kincaid: Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images)