Chaos around NFL contract guarantees, from star quarterbacks to second-round picks
Inside: Could one 45-minute meeting cost the NFL over $600 million? More on that below, plus why your favorite team’s second-round pick might be absent from training camp.
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Where are the second-round picks?
Much of our pre-training camp coverage is focused on breakout players to watch, veteran holdouts, injuries and Cleveland’s uncertain quarterback situation. Standard fare.
But there’s a new twist. Earlier this offseason, the Texans made the unprecedented decision to fully guaranteed the contracts of No. 34 pick WR Jayden Higgins. The Browns followed, doing the same for No. 33 pick LB Carson Schwesinger.
30 of the 32 second-round picks have since refused to sign their rookie contracts.
Most people believe that first-round rookie contracts must be fully guaranteed, but that’s not true. Instead, the practice has evolved since the 2011 CBA was signed, and only became the unofficial standard in 2022, when every first-round pick managed to sign a fully guaranteed deal. So while each pick has a slotted salary, guarantees are a free-market negotiation.
In 2024, second-round guarantees cascaded down from 95 percent for No. 33 pick WR Keon Coleman to just 52 percent for the round’s final pick, 49ers CB Renardo Green.
This weekend, Chargers WR Tre Harris became the first training-camp absentee after NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that the No. 55 pick was absent from his team’s July 12th deadline to report.
Reminder: Don’t call Harris — or his peers — holdouts. Since these second-round picks are not under contract, they cannot be fined or otherwise disciplined for missing training camp.
What happens next?
I’ll draw your attention to three situations:
- The highest-drafted unsigned second-round pick is Seahawks safety Nick Emmanwori, whose agent is likely fielding calls from the NFLPA encouraging him to only sign a fully guaranteed deal.
- If Seattle caves, the next domino is No. 36 pick Quinshon Judkins, who lost leverage after his recent arrest on domestic violence and battery charges.
- In reality, everyone’s probably waiting for Tyler Shough. The 25-year-old quarterback, whom the Saints drafted at No. 40, is reportedly insisting on a fully guaranteed contract.
Can’t blame him — Shough’s leverage skyrocketed when Derek Carr’s sudden retirement made him the presumptive Week 1 starter for New Orleans. Of course, first-year HC Kellen Moore and the Saints front office want to avoid their quarterback arriving late to training camp and missing valuable offseason reps.
If the Saints fully guarantee the salary for pick No. 40, everyone drafted prior to Shough could demand the same, while those after him likely benefit from a cascading guarantee rate. CBS’s Joel Corry shared an agent’s perspective on the situation.
This standoff ties directly into how NFL owners have historically tried to control guaranteed money, which brings us to …
GuaranteeGate: NFL urged teams to reduce guarantees, ruling shows
Imagine if your boss met with every other company in your industry and urged them to stop increasing employee salaries, benefits and bonuses.
That might be collusion, which has been illegal in the United States since 1890. It would also be similar to what appears to have happened in March of 2022, during the owners’ meeting in Palma Beach, Florida.
In a recently released 61-page ruling, which was intended to remain confidential until it was obtained and shared by the “Pablo Torre Finds Out” podcast, an independent arbitrator found evidence that “concerted action was contemplated and invited at the March 2022 owners’ meeting.” Yes, the league was encouraging teams to restrict guaranteed contracts.
Let’s step back. How did we get here?
In 2022, the NFLPA accused the NFL of violating the CBA by colluding (think: working together) to avoid paying fully guaranteed deals to players like Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray after Deshaun Watson signed his fully guaranteed $230 million contract.
The NFL gave a presentation during that 2022 owners’ meeting that included these speaker notes:
An independent arbitrator determined that this March 2022 presentation was evidence of the NFL’s collusive behavior.
Article 17 of the CBA is the anti-collusion section. It prohibits NFL teams and their employees from entering into an agreement, either expressly written or implied through action, with the league or another franchise and its employees concerning the terms and conditions in a player contract.
This dispute led to arbitration, which allowed for the NFL and NFLPA to resolve this privately, or so they hoped, as it included testimony from owners, players and multiple experts, all of whom shed light on the inner workings of the secretive league.
(For example, here’s a text exchange between Michael Bidwill, owner of the Cardinals, and Chargers’ owner Dean Spanos after the former signed Kyler Murray to a five-year, $230 million contract with just $103 million guaranteed at signing):
Back to the findings. While the arbitrator found that the league urged owners to restrict guaranteed money in player contracts, there was insufficient evidence for a clear finding of collusion, which meant that players will not see any of the estimated $612.2 million in damages.
After the ruling, the NFL and senior leaders of the NFLPA reportedly struck an unusual confidentiality agreement to hide the details of the arbitrator’s decision from the same players that the NFLPA represents. The NFLPA has since appealed the ruling.
It’s an odd situation, one that is complicated by recent reports that the NFLPA’s executive director, Lloyd Howell Jr., is also a paid consultant for a firm pursuing ownership stakes in league franchises. Working for a potential owner and on behalf of all the players? Sounds like an obvious conflict of interest. More to come on this, it seems certain.
Extra Points
💥 Can Rome Odunze breakout? After a rookie season that felt more disappointing than it actually was, Odunze is one of 32 players our NFL staff shared as a breakout candidate for each team. Fun read.
💬 The best of Deion Sanders. The Colorado Buffaloes head coach changed a student reporter’s life with an empathetic answer to one question. Your thoughts on Deion aside, it was a special thing to do.
🔦 Bromance spotlight. The Rams knew multiple players were needed to replace future Hall of Fame DT Aaron Donald. Drafting best friends from Florida State sure helped.
🔬 Signing Stefon Diggs was a risk. Will it pay off for the Patriots? The Athletic’s Chad Graff examines whether Diggs, at 31, can become the WR1 New England desperately needs.
▶️ Thursday’s most-clicked: Could this be Tua Tagovailoa’s final year in Miami? The Athletic’s staff shared one player contract to watch for each team.
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(Photo: Jason Miller / Getty Images)
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