Early-Round Draft Picks Experts Love (2025 Fantasy Football)

Do you ever have a dream that jars you awake? That leaves you screaming. If only for a moment. Drenched in a cold sweat. The what if. What if my fantasy football draft plays out exactly like I want it to in my most important league?

Ya know. The one with the hefty buy-in. The family league where winning means a year-long smack talk fest with your relatives. The office league where you can dunk on your co-workers weekly.

These are my perfect draft targets for 2025. Make your fantasy football title dreams a reality.

Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Target

Round 1: Early-Round Players to Target

Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)

Last year, Ja’Marr Chase finished as the WR1 in fantasy points per game, crushing the competition. He ranked first in targets (175), red-zone targets (36), total touchdowns (17), receptions (127), receiving yards (1,708) and yards after the catch (787).

If those numbers weren’t enough, Chase also ranked 14th in yards per route run and 19th in first downs per route run, per Fantasy Points Data. It was an extraordinary season, and Chase is in a good position to attempt to match those numbers in 2025.

The Bengals’ defense remains a work in progress, and Joe Burrow will be tossing Chase the rock. Volume and efficiency shouldn’t be a problem for Chase in 2025 in his quest to repeat as the WR1 overall.

Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)

Bijan Robinson crushed last year as the RB3 in fantasy points per game. It was a tale of two halves. Atlanta began the season goofing around with his usage before it righted the ship. In Weeks 1-5, Robinson was the RB24 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17 touches and 87.2 total yards. In Weeks 6-18, he was the RB1 in fantasy points per game with 23.4 touches and 120.9 total yards per game.

After Week 5, Robinson saw his route share and target share jump from 54.5% to 60.4% and 10.7% to 13.4%, per Fantasy Points Data. If that usage continues in 2025, Robinson could be the RB1 overall this season. He posted strong tackle-breaking numbers last year, ranking 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt.

If Michael Penix can take this offense to another level, Robinson could be the Fantasy MVP this season.

Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI)

Saquon Barkley finished last season as the RB1 in fantasy points per game, finishing with 378 touches, 2,283 total yards, and 15 total touchdowns. This season, we have to have the volume conversation and the worries about that for Barkley’s outlook for 2025. It’s a similar conversation we had with Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs before him. Is it a concern? Yep. Is it so damning that it should put Barkley outside the top-three/top-five running backs in preseason fantasy football rankings? No.

My bigger worry is Barkley’s quietly meh tackle-breaking metrics last year. Among 46 qualifying backs, he had the fourth-best explosive run rate, but he was also only 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 35th in yards after contact per attempt, per Fantasy Points Data. The big thing that helped Barkley was Philly’s awesome offensive line. Among those 46 backs, Barkley had the highest yards before contact per attempt (3.55). Barkley was chewing up almost four yards per carry before he faced the opposition. That helped him a ton, but it will likely help him again in 2025, as Philly will once again have one of the league’s best offensive lines. Barkley remains a top-five back in 2025 despite some of my concerns.

Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)

Justin Jefferson has been the model of consistency. He has never finished lower than WR9 in fantasy points per game since his rookie season, and he’s been inside the top five in this category in each of the last four seasons.

With Sam Darnold at the helm last year, Jefferson was the WR3 in fantasy points per game as he ranked third in target share, fourth in raw target volume, fifth in red-zone targets, and second in receiving yards per game. Jefferson also excelled on a per-route basis, ranking sixth in yards per route run and 18th in first downs per route run, per Fantasy Points Data.

Jefferson still has WR1 overall upside this season if J.J. McCarthy can prove to be an upgrade over Sam Darnold for the Vikings in 2025.

Round 1: Mid-Round Players to Target

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)

Jahmyr Gibbs was awesome last year, finishing as the RB2 in fantasy points per game. The loss of David Montgomery for the final three weeks of the season helped him, but it’s not like Gibbs wasn’t awesome before then. In Weeks 1-15, with Montgomery in the lineup, Gibbs was the RB4 in fantasy points per game (18.9), averaging 16.1 touches and 103 total yards. In Weeks 16-18 (without Montgomery), Gibbs went bonkers with 32.6 fantasy points per game as he decimated opponents with 25.6 touches and 162.4 total yards per game.

I’m not trying to detract from his season, but it helped. In Weeks 1-15, Gibbs still didn’t hold the goal-line or red-zone role on the ground. During that stretch, Montgomery had 25 rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line compared to 18 for Gibbs, per Fantasy Points Data. Gibbs will be efficient with whatever workload he’s allotted after he ranked first in explosive run rate, fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in yards per route run. He’s a top-three back, no matter how you slice it.

CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)

Despite dealing with a shoulder injury for much of the season that limited Dak Prescott to eight games, CeeDee Lamb still finished as the WR8 in fantasy points per game. Among 85 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 15th in target share (24%), 12th in receiving yards per game (74.6), 16th in yards per route run (2.36), and 21st in first downs per route run (0.107, per Fantasy Points Data).

With George Pickens added to the offense, a healthy Prescott returning to the huddle, and Lamb back to full strength, he has WR1 overall upside again in 2025.

Ashton Jeanty (RB – LV)

No matter how you slice it, Ashton Jeanty is a top-five back out of the gate. He has a true three-down skillset and should get all the volume he can handle. He’s a tackle-breaking maven. A skill that I have no doubt will translate to the NFL. Across his final two collegiate seasons, Jeanty ranked first and third in yards after contact per attempt and first and second in elusive rating, per PFF.

Las Vegas will feature the run prominently, and Jeanty’s receiving upside gives him an insane ceiling for 2025. During Chip Kelly’s tenure in the NFL, his offenses have never ranked lower than 11th in rushing attempts. Also, in three out of Kelly’s four years as an NFL offensive coordinator, his backfields had a 16.6-17.7% target share, but he also flooded his Philly backfield with targets in 2015 (28.7%). Jeanty could push for near the top end of that range.

In 2023, Jeanty ranked first in receiving grade and second in yards per route run. Jeanty is primed for a rookie season that could rival Saquon Barkley‘s rookie year.

Round 1: Late-Round Players to Target

Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)

Breaking news. This just in. Puka Nacua is still really good at football. In the nine games last year he played at least 50% of the snaps, he drew a 34.9% target share, produced 104.9 receiving yards per game, had 3.88 yards per route run, commanded a 44.6% first-read share, and churned out 0.185 first downs per route run, per Fantasy Points Data.

Among 85 qualifying wide receivers last season, Nacua would have led all wide receivers in each of those statistical categories. He also averaged 21.8 fantasy points per game in that sample, which would have ranked second behind only Ja’Marr Chase. Nacua remains a game-changing pick in drafts this season, who, despite the addition of Davante Adams, still has WR1 overall upside.

Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)

Christian McCaffrey’s 2024 season was derailed by bilateral Achilles tendonitis. Yes, I know it crushed many fantasy teams. Yes, I know that if you drafted him last year, you’re probably saying, “hell no… I won’t be walking down that road again.” I’ll get this out of the way quickly. I’m back in.

George Kittle had similar issues with his Achilles, but after he received stem cell infusions, it hasn’t remained a problem. McCaffrey had a similar treatment last year and enters this season fully healthy from all reports. In the small sample we got from McCaffrey last year, his numbers remained strong.

In the three full games McCaffrey played, he averaged 18.6 touches and 93.7 total yards, all while playing 81-94% of the snaps. McCaffrey’s 22% missed tackle forced rate and his 1.80 yards per route run were strong, per Fantasy Points Data. Among those two statistical categories, McCaffrey ranked eighth-best (70 qualifying backs) and sixth-best (53 qualifying backs). McCaffrey has at least one more big season left. I’ll be investing heavily in him for 2025.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a model of consistency as a top-10 fantasy wideout in each of the last three seasons (WR10, WR4, WR4). Talent is fueling this, but back-to-back seasons as a top-five option at wide receiver have also been aided by elite red-zone usage as he has averaged 11.5 receiving touchdowns per season while ranking second and third in red-zone targets.

I don’t see that changing in 2025, so St. Brown could easily be headed for a third consecutive top-five fantasy wideout campaign. Last year, among 85 qualifying wideouts, St. Brown ranked ninth in target share, 13th in receiving yards per game, and fourth in first downs per route run, per Fantasy Points Data. St. Brown is one of the safest fantasy football picks you can make.

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAX)

Overall, last year, Brian Thomas Jr. was a stud as the WR11 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in deep targets and 15th in red-zone targets. As good as those numbers are, they still underrate his upside in 2025 if he can continue what he did down the stretch last year.

Favs for WR1 overall this year:

Ja’Marr Chase
Justin Jefferson
CeeDee Lamb

Darkhorse candidates:

Brian Thomas Jr.
Drake London

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 20, 2025

In Weeks 13-18 last season, Thomas was the WR2 in fantasy points per game. During that span, among 72 qualifying receivers, he was fourth in target share (31.6%), seventh in yards per route run (2.78), fifth in receiving yards per game (98.8), and 17th in first downs per route run (0.108, per Fantasy Points Data).

Thomas posted those numbers with Mac Jones tossing him passes. What do we think he’ll do in 2025 with Liam Coen at the controls and Trevor Lawrence back? It could be a magical season for Thomas.

Round 2: Early-Round Players to Target

Derrick Henry (RB – BAL)

The big dawg keeps eating. Some players are just built differently. I don’t know what else to say regarding Henry. I don’t foresee any slowdown from the Baltimore behemoth. Last year, he nearly rushed for 2,000 yards (1,921) and finished with 18 total touchdowns as the RB4 in fantasy points per game.

Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked third in explosive run rate, eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 13th in yards after contact per attempt, per Fantasy Points Data. Henry is an RB1 until he hangs up the cleats. I won’t bet against King Henry ever again.

De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)

De’Von Achane continued his strong RB1 ways last year as the RB6 in fantasy points per game. In his 16 full games played, he averaged 17.3 touches and 92.6 total yards. His otherworldly per-touch efficiency didn’t hold up last year, but that doesn’t mean he was bad.

Among 46 qualifying backs, he was 19th in explosive run rate and missed tackles forced per attempt, per Fantasy Points Data. He was a stud in the passing game, sitting at ninth in yards per route run and second in target share and receiving yards per game. I have plenty of questions about the Dolphins for 2025, but Achane isn’t one of them. He should continue to post RB1 numbers in 2025.

Brock Bowers (TE – LV)

Brock Bowers had a legendary rookie season. He finished as the TE3 in fantasy points per game. He logged the most receptions, receiving yards, PPR fantasy points per game, and targets for a rookie tight end ever. Insane, insane production.

Last year, among 47 qualifying tight ends, he remained stellar, ranking second in target share (23.6%), third in receiving yards per game (70.2), fifth in yards per route run (2.11), and sixth in first downs per route run (0.108, per Fantasy Points Data).

With more target competition added this offseason with the additions of Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton, we’ll see if Bowers can repeat his historic rookie season production, but I won’t be betting against him with improved quarterback play with Geno Smith now under center. Bowers is worth paying up for in drafts as a difference-making option at a onesie position.

Round 2: Mid-Round Players to Target

Drake London (WR – ATL)

Last year, Drake London finally had the true breakout season I’ve been forecasting for him, as he finally got to experience at least average starting quarterback play for much of the season. London finished as the WR13 in fantasy points per game while ranking third in targets (157) and securing 100 receptions. Last year, he ranked fifth in target share, 11th in receiving yards per game, and 12th in yards per route run, per Fantasy Points Data.

Drake London: Dark Horse WR1 overall in 2025

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 30, 2025

With Michael Penix under center in 2025, London could ascend even further up the fantasy wideout ladder. His splits with Kirk Cousins and Penix were eye-popping. Yes, I know it was only a three-game sample with Penix, but it would still be impressive if London could venture even into the general neighborhood of these numbers across a full season.

With Cousins, London recorded a 24.6% target share with 65.6 receiving yards per game and 2.24 yards per route run. Those are solid numbers, but they aren’t top-three wideout numbers like he posted with Penix. With Penix chucking him the rock, London saw his target share soar to 39% with 117.3 receiving yards per game and 3.74 yards per route run.

If London can continue even a watered-down version of those numbers for the entirety of 2025, he could be contending for WR1 overall when it’s all said and done. London is a high-floor and high-ceiling pick for 2025.

A.J. Brown (WR – PHI)

Last year, A.J. Brown still managed to finish as a WR1 (WR12 overall) despite being locked inside a passing offense that finished with the fewest passing attempts in the NFL (448). Brown remains an elite receiving option. He ranked second in target share (31.1%), fifth in receiving yards per game (83), second in yards per route run (3.22), second in first-read share (42.1%), and second in first downs per route run (0.152, per Fantasy Points Data) last season.

Brown’s insane per-route efficiency has been a calling card during his career. I don’t expect much, if any, dropoff from that this season. Despite his amazing talent, Brown was 25th in targets per game. Philly’s passing volume will naturally regress, so we should see more volume for Brown and the rest of these pass-catchers in 2025. The only question is how much. Brown remains a locked-in WR1 for this season, with his ceiling and floor tied to Philly’s passing volume.

Round 2: Late-Round Players to Target

Trey McBride (TE – ARI)

Trey McBride had a monster 2024 season as the TE2 in fantasy points per game. Last year, among 47 qualifying tight ends, he ranked first in target share, second in receiving yards per game, third in yards per route run, first in first downs per route run, and third in first downs per route run.

As insane as it sounds, if his horrible touchdown luck could correct itself, last season could have been even better. Despite ranking second in red-zone targets, McBride finished with only two receiving touchdowns (four total touchdowns). McBride finished with 15.6 PPR points per game (TE2), but he had 19.2 expected PPR points per game. McBride’s horrible touchdown run out could reverse itself in 2025, and if it does, he could be the clear runaway TE1.

Bucky Irving (RB – TB)

Bucky Irving’s RB19 fantasy points per game finish last year doesn’t do him justice. Last year, after he wrestled the lead job away from Rachaad White, Irving was lights out as the RB6 in fantasy points per game, averaging 18.5 touches and 115.2 total yards.

Overall, Irving was fantastic, ranking in the top 15 in explosive run rate (seventh), missed tackles forced per attempt (third), yards after contact per attempt (fourth), receiving yards per game (14th), and yards per route run (fifth, per Fantasy Points Data). After Week 9 last season, he had 55% of the red-zone rushing attempts as he was the preferred back near the goal-line over White and Sean Tucker. Irving should be a strong RB1 again in 2025.

Ladd McConkey (WR – LAC)

Ladd McConkey is one of the best picks you can make in 2025. He has league-winning upside. Last year in Weeks 8-18, he was the WR11 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in receiving yards per game (89), fifth in yards per route run (2.97), and ninth in first downs per route run (0.127). He did all of that while only ranking 26th in target share (22.9%) and 21st in first read share (29.9%, per Fantasy Points Data).

If those numbers bump up a tad and the Bolts remain a pass-happier team than people realize in 2025, McConkey could be a top-three/top-five fantasy wide receiver. Last year in Weeks 7-18, the Bolts ranked eighth in neutral passing rate and sixth-best in pass rate over expectation. McConkey is primed for a monster sophomore season.

Round 3: Early-Round Players to Target

Josh Allen (QB – BUF)

Josh Allen posted another elite season as the QB2 in fantasy points per game. He has not finished lower than QB3 in fantasy points per game since 2020, with three seasons as the QB1. The rushing production continues to be a big part of his wizardry, as he had 12 rushing scores while ranking fifth in rushing yards and third in red-zone carries per game.

Allen remains no slouch as a passer either, ranking ninth in yards per attempt, seventh in highly accurate throw rate, and first in hero throw rate, per Fantasy Points Data. He is in the running for QB1 overall again this season.

Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)

Lamar Jackson stole the QB1 crown away last year. It was his first time as the QB1 in fantasy points per game since his monstrous 2019 campaign. I know this won’t shock anyone, but his rushing production remained stellar as he led all quarterbacks with 915 rushing yards while ranking 10th in rushing touchdowns and fourth in carries per game.

Jackson also took more strides as a passer, finishing with a career-high 4,172 passing yards and 41 passing touchdowns. Hopefully, the shade that he received earlier in his career as a passer is dead and buried 10 feet deep because he is a stellar thrower of the football. Among 40 qualifying passers last season, Jackson ranked first in yards per attempt, fifth in completion percentage over expected (CPOE), and seventh in hero throw rate, per Fantasy Points Data. Jackson could be the QB1 overall again in 2025.

Round 3: Mid-Round Players to Target

Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)

While I know Garrett Wilson’s 2024 season didn’t turn out the way many had hoped, it was still quite strong. He finally broke into the WR2 ranks as the WR18 in fantasy points per game while setting career highs in receptions (101), receiving yards (1,104), and receiving touchdowns (seven). He ranked 10th in target share, 22nd in receiving yards per game, and 29th in first downs per route run. Aaron Rodgers‘ rollercoaster quarterback play impacted his efficiency metrics.

Wilson was also 29th in separation and 35th in route win rate. This season, he won’t have Davante Adams to deal with as he steps forward as the unquestioned No. 1 WR for the team. Everyone is concerned about Wilson’s outlook with Justin Fields at the helm, but I’m not worried one bit. In 2023, with Fields, DJ Moore finished as the WR9 in fantasy points per game and was the WR19 in expected fantasy points per game.

Wilson has already displayed the ability to win as the top receiving threat in an offense and draw high-end target shares. He’ll be just fine this season as a strong WR2 who could be a WR1 if things break right.

Chase Brown (RB – CIN)

Chase Brown was Cincy’s Christian McCaffrey last season after he took over the starting job. In Weeks 9-17, he averaged 23.7 touches and 116.3 total yards as the RB4 in fantasy points per game. He played at least 79% of the snaps in every game while ranking second in receiving yards per game, sixth in target share (12.5%), and 10th in first downs per route run, per Fantasy Points Data.

As good as Brown was, I do have some small worries about his per-touch efficiency. Among 46 qualifying backs, he was 25th in explosive run rate, 26th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. None of those numbers screams elite. That doesn’t mean Brown can’t continue to crush in fantasy in 2025 as Cincy’s do-it-all back, but the inefficiency does create an avenue for another back to step up and siphon off work. I don’t know if Zack Moss or Samaje Perine are up to the task, but maybe Tahj Brooks could.

We’ll see how camp plays out for Brown, but right now he looks like a rock-solid RB1.

Round 3: Late-Round Players to Target

Jayden Daniels (QB – WSH)

Jayden Daniels was a league-winning value pick last year in his rookie season as the QB6 in fantasy points per game. If we remove the two games in which he failed to play more than 50% of the snaps, he averaged 23.7 fantasy points per game and had 0.61 fantasy points per dropback. Those two figures would have ranked second and fourth among quarterbacks last year.

In those 15 full games, Daniels averaged 58.2 rushing yards per game, which would have led all quarterbacks last year by 4.4 yards per game. He also wasn’t a pushover from the pocket, ranking 14th in yards per attempt, 11th in CPOE, and sixth in catchable target rate, per Fantasy Points Data.

Daniels can improve in the passing department, though, which is incredibly scary for anyone not drafting him, as he was 24th in highly accurate throw rate and 17th in off-target rate. Daniels has QB1 overall upside this season with a mid-QB1 floor.

Davante Adams (WR – LAR)

Davante Adams proved last year that he still has plenty left in the tank. Last season with the Jets, among 79 qualifying wide receivers, Adams ranked 22nd in separation and 27th in route win rate, per Fantasy Points Data. While in New York, he was only on pace for 176 targets, 104 receptions, and 1,320 receiving yards as the WR7 in fantasy points per game.

The Rams will field a consolidated passing attack with Adams and Puka Nacua vacuuming up targets while Tyler Higbee and Tutu Atwell contribute as ancillary pieces. If Adams and Matthew Stafford can stay healthy in 2025, there’s no reason Adams shouldn’t produce as a WR1/WR2.

Mike Evans (WR – TB)

Mike Evans has finished no lower than WR13 in fantasy points per game over the last four years, and he didn’t show any signs of slowing down last year. While he has dealt with hamstring issues in each of the last three years, he has never played fewer than 14 games in any season.

Last year, Evans ranked 23rd in target share, fifth in yards per route run, 16th in receiving yards per game, fourth in route win rate, and second in separation, per Fantasy Points Data. Evans is primed to produce as a WR1 again in 2025.

*All data utilized in this article courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, Pro Football Focus, and PlayerProfiler unless otherwise specified.*

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