Fantasy Football: ‘This is a matchup begging for Hunter to get unleashed’ — Tale of the Take, Week 1

Everywhere you look, people are firing off hot fantasy football takes for Week 1. Bold calls with no backbone, no data, no context. That’s not what this is. Tale of the Take is about putting predictions on the table and actually walking you through why they matter. I’m not just guessing here. I’m using usage trends, matchup data, film and real football context to build a case.

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And look, some of the names I’m talking about this week aren’t under-the-radar sleepers. They’re stars. They’re players you already know matter. But the difference is I’m going to tell you how and why they’re about to tilt fantasy matchups this weekend, and to what degree.

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Every week, all season long, I’ll give you my calls for the upcoming slate and the usage and data to back them.

Here’s the Tale of the Take for Week 1.

Saquon Barkley runs for 150+ yards and 2 TDs vs. Dallas

Saquon Barkley opens the season with as much juice as he’ll have all year, and Dallas is catching him at the wrong time. The Cowboys are without Micah Parsons and DeMarvion Overshown, leaving a linebacking core of Damone Clark, Jack Sanborn and Kenneth Murray Jr. tasked with slowing down the league’s most dynamic runner. That’s a mismatch, even with Kenny Clark added to the interior.

Philadelphia’s offensive line is intact, healthy and still one of the best units in football. Barkley was voted by his peers as the No. 1 player in the NFL for 2024, and this matchup gives him a chance to back that up on national TV. The Cowboys’ secondary has Trevon Diggs returning from injury and DaRon Bland coming off a banged-up season, which means Dallas is built to defend the pass, not handle a heavy dose of Barkley between the tackles.

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And history speaks for itself. Last year alone, Barkley ranked second among RBs in red-zone rushing attempts against Dallas with seven. He was second in missed tackles forced with 11, first in rushing yards with 233 and tied with Derrick Henry for the lead with five runs of 10+ yards. That’s pure dominance, and it came against this exact opponent.

Week 1 is the perfect storm. Barkley’s workload is fresh, the matchup is vulnerable and the Eagles are favored by more than a touchdown in a game with a 47.5 total. Everything points to Barkley setting the tone with a monster performance.

Xavier Worthy finishes Week 1 as a WR1

We saw two completely different versions of Xavier Worthy in his rookie year. Early on, he was a vertical field-stretcher. He commanded 16.6% targets per route run (TPRR), a 31.1% slot rate, 11.7 air yards per target and just 8.17 half-PPR points per game. Then Kansas City flipped the switch. From Week 14 through the Super Bowl, Worthy became a featured piece: 24.2% TPRR, a 40.4% slot rate and 14.57 half-PPR points per game.

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Now he enters Week 1 as the clear WR1 option. Rashee Rice is suspended, rookie Jalen Royals is sidelined and the wideout depth chart is JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton. That leaves Worthy lined up against a shaky Chargers secondary. Donte Jackson ranked 113th of 116 CBs last season and Cam Hart sat 85th; Worthy has the matchup edge against both. The only plus corner, Tarheeb Still, is projected for fewer snaps in the slot.

With Travis Kelce drawing coverage inside and Worthy set up for mismatches outside, the role that elevated him late last year should carry over immediately. The opportunity is here for him to post WR1 numbers right out the gate.

Malik Nabers finishes Week 1 as the overall WR1

Malik Nabers didn’t just flash as a rookie, he dominated Washington. Across two games, he racked up 19 catches for 186 yards and a touchdown, averaging 14.5 targets per game. He saw 18 looks in one matchup and 11 in the other. That’s the type of usage you only see from true alpha wideouts.

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Let’s be honest: The Commanders’ secondary doesn’t project as a “no-fly zone” either. Marshon Lattimore ranked 86th of 116 CBs last year, Mike Sainristil graded 50th and Trey Amos is talented but he’s still a rookie. Nabers has a clear green-light advantage against every projected defender. This time, instead of Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock throwing him the ball, he gets Russell Wilson, who’s a massive upgrade despite how you might feel about him overall..

Game script adds to the case. The Giants are 6.5-point underdogs with a 45.5 total, which signals passing volume. Wan’Dale Robinson and Theo Johnson will be a part of the passing attack, but Nabers remains the focal point of this offense. With proven production against Washington already on record, there’s every reason to expect Nabers to erupt again — this time, with overall WR1 upside.

Justin Fields finishes outside the top-20 QBs in Week 1

Jets-Steelers has the lowest total of Week 1 at 38.5, and everything about this game screams slog. Pittsburgh is favored by 2.5, the Jets just lost Elijah Vera-Tucker to a torn triceps and Fields will now face T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward, Calijah Kancey and the rest of a Steelers defense that added Jalen Ramsey.

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The rushing upside that normally props up Fields doesn’t look as safe here. Last year, Pittsburgh allowed just 14 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, second-fewest in the NFL. With Garrett Wilson as his only trustworthy target and a compromised line in front of him, Fields is unlikely to find consistent success through the air.

This isn’t about Fields’ long-term fantasy outlook. He’ll still have big games with his legs. But Week 1 sets up as a trap. Against a disciplined Steelers defense in a game with limited possessions and a capped ceiling, Fields is a fade from starting lineups.

Travis Hunter finishes Week 1 as a top-24 WR

It’s the debut everyone has been waiting for. The No. 2 overall pick, a Heisman Trophy winner and one of the most hyped wideouts to enter the league in years. Some are worried because he was banged up during camp and we did not see much of him in the preseason. But the matchup in Week 1? You could not script it any better.

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Carolina’s defense was a historic liability last year. They were the only unit in the league to allow more than 30 points per game, the only one to give up 400+ total yards per game and the only one to surrender six yards per play. They allowed a league-high 35 passing touchdowns, ranked bottom 10 in passing yards allowed, No. 3 in passing yards per play allowed and led the NFL in defensive scores given up.

That is not just bad, that is historically awful.

Enter Liam Cohen’s new-look Jacksonville offense. The run game should be efficient enough to keep Carolina honest but this is a matchup begging for Hunter to get unleashed. Cohen’s quick-hitting concepts fit perfectly with what Hunter does best. Get the ball in his hands early, let him work after the catch and sprinkle in some vertical shots.

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Hunter is being drafted as a WR3 but in this spot, he has top-24 upside with touchdown potential. Volume plus matchup equals confidence. Even if there are growing pains later, Week 1 should be a splash. Start him without hesitation.

The Final Word

Week 1 is about planting flags. Xavier Worthy is walking into a target funnel, Malik Nabers is set to torch Washington again, Saquon Barkley is primed for a statement game, Justin Fields is staring down a trap spot and Travis Hunter is debuting against the softest defense in football.

Fantasy is about timing. You don’t win your league in September, but you can set the tone with the right calls. These are mine for Week 1.