FSU vs. Miami preview, prediction: Seminoles playing for pride, Hurricanes playing for national championship and Heisman hopes

Each year, there are two games circled on the Florida State football schedule, both intrastate rivalries that have established themselves as important parts of college football’s tapestry.

While FSU-UF had its heyday during its fierce battles between Bobby Bowden and Steve Spurrier, the series between Florida State and the Miami Hurricanes has maintained its edge and prestige even when one team falters and the national stakes of the matchup fall to the wayside. Seven of the last ten matchups (18 of the last 25!) have been decided by one score, with the series sitting at 35-33 in Miami’s favor.

The history and importance of this game isn’t lost on either side, especially as the memory of Florida State’s 2022 win in Hard Rock Stadium is still fresh in Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal’s mind. In his first year leading the program, he saw FSU put together a 45-3 win, the largest road victory in the history of the two schools. After pushing the Seminoles to the edge last year in an upset bid, making a statement is going to be on the forefront of his and Miami’s mind.

With No. 6 Miami boasting a 7-0 (3-0 ACC) record and a Heisman Trophy candidate in quarterback Cam Ward, it would be a tall task for Florida State in a normal year — in 2024, with FSU fielding one of the country’s worst offenses as the defense still tries to acclimate, it’ll be a major challenge avoiding a repeat of 2020’s matchup, when Miami scored the most points in series history en route to a 42-point win of its own (52-10).

What does Miami bring to the table outside of quarterback? On this week’s Line of Scrimmage, we’re joined by our friend Adam Lichtenstein of the Sun Sentinel to talk about the Hurricanes’ run this year, what they’re fielding on each side of the ball and how he thinks the game will go on Saturday night.

Listen in the player below, as well as on iTunes, Spotify, Amazon, Google Podcasts, Stitcher or wherever you listen to your shows, or find a transcript of the conversation below:

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There’s an alternate universe where Cam Ward does not choose Miami. He goes to the NFL or even to another school like FSU. I know that Miami’s improvement is not just Ward, but without the signal caller, what would you put this team’s record at this year? What areas (outside of quarterback) do you feel Mario Cristobal best addressed this offseason?

If they didn’t have Cam Ward, they’re probably sitting at 4-3 right now, winless in ACC play, and we’re probably talking about whether Mario Cristobal is on the hot seat. Emory Williams and Reece Poffenbarger, the two backups, are probably decent quarterbacks. We saw Emory a little bit last year, and both of them have done well in garbage time against some lower-level teams this year. But when you look at the last three ACC games, I doubt the Hurricanes come back against Virginia Tech or come back from a 25-point deficit at Cal without Cam Ward. I also doubt they put up 52 points at Louisville without him.

So, yeah, without him, it’s a radically different season. But with him, we might be looking back at this as a turning point for the program. He’s been phenomenal, and while it might be saying too much to call it a program changer, you can’t deny how important he’s been.

As for the other areas Cristobal addressed, I’d say the biggest one was the defensive line. It was a complete overhaul—lost 12 guys to the NFL, graduation, or the transfer portal, and they brought in 12 new guys, including freshmen and transfers. The transfers have been playing big roles. Tyler Barron started off the season hot, Simeon Barrow at defensive tackle has been an animal the last few games, and you’ve got other contributors like Elijah Alston, Marley Cook, CJ Clark, and some freshmen like Justin Scott who’ve gotten playing time. It’s been a strength on defense for sure.

But since we don’t live in said alternate universes, the story of the year for Miami has been the success of Cam Ward. The Heisman candidate has crushed it so far for the Hurricanes with over 2,500 yards passing and 24 touchdowns through the air. But I think the real difference is his ball security. Last year, Ward averaged just 12 yards per game on the ground but lost eight fumbles. This year, he’s doubled the rushing yards per game and lost just one on the ground. It’s clear Ward has taken a step forward in his progression, what areas stand out to you the most in his growth?

I think there are a couple of reasons for the lack of fumbles and his improvement there. One, he’s playing with a much better offensive line at Miami than he was at WSU. A lot of times, you’ll see some of these great plays he makes where he extends the play. He has all the time in the world to throw because the offensive line is protecting him well, so he’s not taking a lot of hits in the backfield. He’s also picking and choosing his spots on when to run, and when he does scramble, it’s because there’s nothing open downfield and something opens up. Most of his runs end with him running out of bounds rather than getting hit hard. That explains why he’s rushing for more yards and why he has fewer fumbles.

He’s still prone to turnovers, though—he’s thrown five interceptions this season, and a couple were pretty bad. I think of the one against Cal where he threw it across his body, and it floated—it was as bad as it gets. But he’s a gunslinger, and he’s going to take risks. More often than not, though, those risks have worked out because of the great offensive line and playmakers around him.

At running back, the Hurricanes have a strong 1-2 punch with Mark Fletcher and transfer Damien Martinez. At any point, either back has the potential to take one to the house. They’re both averaging five (Martinez 4.9) yards per carry and they have 10 touchdowns between them. Can you break down the skill set of Miami’s dynamic duo?

Damien Martinez had a great game against Louisville. A reporter asked him after the game where his ability to run over people comes from, and I just thought, “Well, he’s 240 pounds—that helps.” He kind of had a slow start to the season, but his production has been picking up. He’s been used a lot in short-yardage situations, but against Louisville, he rushed for about 90 yards on 13 carries, and he had one of those grown-man runs where he was carrying defenders downfield for 30 yards.

Mark Fletcher is a little faster than Martinez, but he’s still about 235 pounds, so he can also put people on his back when he needs to. He had a great start to the game against Louisville as well, with around 75 yards on 12 carries. He’s fun to watch because he can make you forget how big he is when he gets into open space. They’ve also got Jordan Lyle, who had a 91-yard run earlier this season, and Chris Johnson, probably the fastest guy on the team. He’s been more of a receiving threat so far. Ajay Allen was their number three back last year, and he’s still contributing. So yeah, they’ve got a stable of backs.

The wide receiver room has looked great this year for Miami. Seven pass catchers with over 100 receiving yards. Also, seven pass catchers with multiple touchdowns. I think we all know Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George. But transfer Sam Brown has lit up teams and the tight ends have seven scores. There are so many threats, taking depth into consideration, I know I’m including tight ends here, but is this the best room on offense? The team?

I do think it’s the best room on the team. It’s crazy to me because I remember when I started covering the team a couple of years ago, the question was, does Miami have receivers who can replace Mike Harley and Charleston Rambo? That was a big question mark even entering last season. Over the last two years under Shannon Dawson, the answer has been yes. You can run through all the guys—Restrepo is climbing the list. He’s in the top four all-time in receiving yards at Miami. When you think of the receivers who’ve come through Miami, that’s an insane fact. He’s ahead of guys like Andre Johnson, Leonard Hankerson, and Lamar Thomas. I can’t remember if he passed Reggie Wayne or if Reggie Wayne is ahead of him, but it’s Santana Moss, Michael Irvin—who he’ll pass, I’m sure, this week. He’s 20 yards behind Michael Irvin. Those are the guys ahead of him, and he can very well end the season and his career as the number one all-time receiver in Miami history, which is wild.

George is a very talented guy. We saw him make that play in the end zone against Florida, and the same play again last week against Louisville, getting open in the back of the end zone, making a nice catch on a great throw from Cam Ward. Sam Brown had a breakout game last week. Isaiah Horton is having a great year after not getting a ton of playing time in his first couple of seasons. Arroyo, is having a great year at tight end. Cam McCormick has two touchdowns, and Riley Williams is a pass-game threat. Elija Lofton, the freshman, is a guy who makes plays when he’s on the field. He’s very talented, can line up at tight end, in the backfield, out wide—it’s a good embarrassment of riches. Miami should be an embarrassment of riches. If you’re in South Florida, you should get a lot of talented skill position guys, and they have them.

Finally on offense, the Miami offensive line is setting up the ‘Canes for 188 yards per game on the ground. They’ve given up 12 sacks, but some of those are on Ward. There’s a transfer at center but other than that it’s a home grown group. How would you say the offensive line has held up this year?

I think they’re a really solid unit. They’ve not been perfect—they have given up 12 sacks. For a little bit, it seemed like they were struggling in run blocking, and there was a stretch from the USF game through the Cal game where they weren’t getting blocks on the run like they should have. It seems like that issue has corrected itself. If you’re talking about the line, you’ve got to start with Francis Mauigoa, former five-star prospect. He’s a great tackle. He’s 340 pounds, incredibly strong, fast. I remember Mario Cristobal, on one of the preseason programs, said this 340-pound tackle can run almost 20 miles an hour. I don’t remember my high school physics, but someone that big running that fast is going to hurt. We saw it against Virginia Tech where he kicked out for a block, was blocking for a guy downfield, and sent a dude flying. He’s got another year left—he’s really good.

On the other side, you’ve got Jalen Rivers, a veteran guy, very versatile. He was hurt for most of the year—got hurt in Week 1 and just came back this past week. He’s very versatile. They like him a lot at left tackle, but they also like that he brings versatility. This past week, we saw them shift Jalen Rivers inside to left guard and play Markel Bell, a six-foot-eight, 340-pound tackle from junior college this offseason. He was playing for Rivers at left tackle while Rivers was hurt. They liked what he did so much, they decided to move Jalen Rivers to guard and put Markel Bell at tackle.

Zach Carpenter, the Indiana transfer at center, has been solid—nothing to complain about. Anez Cooper might be the most impressive story. Francis Mauigoa is the gem of the line, but Anez Cooper is a success story because they brought him in as a low three-star ranked over 1,000 out of Alabama. I think he weighed over 400 pounds when they brought him in. They coached him up, and now he’s a very good right guard. He became a starter when another player got hurt in his freshman year in 2022 and hasn’t given up that spot yet. He’s been a very good right guard, and it’s impressive work from Mario Cristobal and Alex Mirabal.

Whenever I talk to offensive line recruits and ask what drew them to Miami, they say it’s Alex Mirabal and Mario Cristobal. Knowing they’ll be coached by the head coach is a big draw. Not many programs are run by former offensive linemen. They’re bringing in talented offensive linemen, and you get a good unit like this.

The Miami defense as a whole has 23 sacks with 17 of those coming from the defensive line. The name to know to start the season was Rueben Bain, but he’s missed the majority of the year due to injury (back last week). In his place has been Tyler Barron at end and Simeon Barrow in the middle. These two transfers have 4.5 sacks each. The Miami defense has struggled the last few weeks but I’d argue the defense line is doing the work they need to for the most part. What are your thoughts on the Hurricane front?

The defensive line is the strength of the defense. It’s like the killer bees—Bain, Barrow, and Barron. Rueben Bain came back two weeks ago against Cal. He had a tackle for loss in that game, but this past week against Louisville was his real comeback. He was all over the place, had a sack, 10 quarterback pressures according to PFF, an excellent game. Barron had a great start to the year, cooled off a little, but still a capable pass rusher. Simeon Barrow has really broken out the last couple of weeks. He is just a bear of a human, great at stopping the run, gets the pass rush from the interior, which you don’t always see. He forced the fumble against Louisville that Popo Aguirre landed on in the end zone for a touchdown. He’s very disruptive, especially in the center of the line.

Elijah Alston has been solid, and then you’ve got Moten, Marley Cook, CJ Clark. They have a big rotation of guys that they trust on that defensive line. When you can get somebody on the line for 15, 20 snaps with no drop-off, it allows you to rest your premier guys like Bain or Barron and keep them fresh throughout the game. They’re not dragging in the fourth quarter.

At linebacker, Miami has two strong, veteran defenders. The team leaders in tackles in Francisco Mauigoa and Wesley Bissainthe. Both of these guys are multi year starters for the Hurricanes and bring leadership to the defense. How has the linebacker room performed this year?

They’ve been decent, but not great. Wesley Bissainthe is having a very good season. He’s not putting up showy stats, not a lot of sacks or tackles for loss, but he’s been solid. He has an interception and has done very well in pass defense at linebacker. He’s really coming into his own.

Francisco Mauigoa is a leader on the defense. They were happy to have him come back when he could’ve entered the draft after a good year last year. I think he’s great, but he’s having kind of an off year. He’s missed a lot of tackles. In the two games where Miami had their most missed tackles—Louisville and Virginia Tech—he had multiple missed tackles. He’s still an integral player as the middle linebacker on this defense, just not having as big a year as last year.

Jaylin Alderman, a transfer from Louisville, is in the rotation and has been solid. The sophomore, Popo Aguirre, has been solid, maybe better than solid when he’s been in. They’re a solid unit, but they haven’t been perfect.

And finally the secondary. This group has allowed 275 yards per game in the last three contests and also given up eight touchdowns through the air in that same timeframe. Has Miami just ran into some buzzsaw offenses or has the secondary taken a step back recently?

That was the big question coming into the year: how the secondary would hold up. They lost four or five starters. The only returning starter was Daryl Porter. They lost two NFL safeties in Kamren Kinchens and James Williams. They lost Jaden Davis, who was a solid cornerback, and Davonte Brown, who transferred to FSU. They only returned one starter.

They brought in D’Yoni Hill from Marshall and Mishael Powell from Washington to play safety. They were expecting Damari Brown to start at outside corner or nickel, but he got hurt in Week 1 against Florida and hasn’t been back. Mario Cristobal said today he isn’t expected to return until late in the season, so they’ve had to rely on Porter. Then they’ve had to rely on guys like Hill, Jadais Richard, and OJ Frederique, a freshman cornerback who has played solidly.

Overall, the unit hasn’t been playing great lately. Tyler Shough, the Louisville quarterback—who might be the second-best quarterback in the ACC this year—was able to move the ball well against Miami. Jeff Brohm is a great offensive play-caller, and they were able to move the ball through the air. The pass rush wasn’t getting there in time most of the time.

We might see some small changes on the back end. Maybe more of Zaquan Patterson, a four-star freshman, at safety. They might rotate more at cornerback. They really want Damari Brown back as soon as possible because they’re hurting without him. The secondary is the biggest weakness of this team. They’re not terrible, but probably the weakest spot.

How do you see this game playing out in prime time on Saturday?

Well, it’s funny. Someone dug up a tweet of mine from two years ago, where after FSU beat Miami 45-3 at Hard Rock in Cristobal’s first game—his first rivalry game as head coach—and he was asked if he thought FSU ran up the score, and he said, “I don’t care. It’s their job to score, and it’s our job to stop them. One day the shoe will be on the other foot.” And Saturday might be that day.

My heart says it’s a rivalry game, and anything can happen. You throw out the record books and all those clichés. There’s always a chance, right? A cornerback slips and maybe a ball lands somewhere. I mean, we could probably do a whole podcast on all the stuff wrong with FSU, but that’ll be for another day. Close games and rivalry games are always fun. I just can’t will myself into seeing this one as close.

My brain says FSU hasn’t scored more than 21 points all season, and Miami hasn’t scored fewer than 39. So right there, you’re never gonna lose a game when you outscore your opponent.

I just don’t think, even if FSU’s defense—which I don’t think is awful—is able to keep Miami’s offense down a little bit, Miami’s defense is good enough. It’s better than Duke’s defense, better than Boston College’s defense. The fact that FSU can’t score… And then you start getting into things where if they keep going three-and-out, you keep giving Miami’s offense chances to get down the field.

My brain says that FSU is a deep, deep underdog for a reason. I don’t think this one’s going to be close. Most likely, I don’t know, maybe 48-17. We’ll see. FSU’s weaknesses match up with Miami’s strengths, and the areas where FSU is strongest probably don’t make a big enough difference because that’s where Miami is also strongest. I think it’s going to be a rough day for FSU fans on Saturday night. Might want to make some plans that night.

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Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami Hurricanes: How to watch

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Florida State vs. Miami: Game notes

• Florida State is the only team in the ACC and one of two nationally with a kickoff return touchdown in each of the last three seasons. Samuel Singleton Jr. extended FSU’s streak to three straight years with a 95-yard kickoff return touchdown to open the second half at Duke. Last year, Deuce Spann had a 99-yard kickoff return touchdown at home against the Blue Devils, and in 2022, Trey Benson recorded FSU’s first kickoff return touchdown since the 2013 season when he returned the opening kickoff 93 yards for a score against Boston College.
• The Seminoles are 1st in the nation with five blocked kicks this season, courtesy of four field goals and one punt block, after blocking one field goal vs. Cal, one at SMU, and two vs. Clemson, and adding a punt block at Duke. Florida State is the only team in the country to block at least one kick in four different games, and its four-game streak with at least one blocked kick is the longest nationally this season. FSU’s 14 blocked kicks under Mike Norvell are tied for 6th nationally and tied for 2nd among P4 conference programs since the start of the 2020 season.
• Florida State ranks 1st in the country with a net punting average of 46.34 yards per punt. Alex Mastromanno’s average of 49.4 yards per punt is 1st nationally, and Mastromanno also leads the country in 50+ yard punts with 19. He has by far the most 50-yard punts with one or fewer touchbacks this season, as the next-closest punter has 14.
• FSU also leads the ACC and is 18th nationally with an average of 25.0 yards per kickoff return.
• Ryan Fitzgerald is the only kicker in the country with four made field goals from at least 52 yards. He is one of four kickers with four 50-yard field goals in 2024 and the third kicker in FSU history with at least four 50-yard field goals in a single season. He’s one of six kickers nationally still perfect on field-goal attempts this season.
• Florida State held Duke to 70 passing yards, recording a season-high eight pass breakups, and 180 yards of total offense. The passing yards total was the fewest allowed by an ACC team against a P4 conference opponent this season, and the Seminoles’ pass breakups total was their highest since registering 10 in the 2023 ACC Championship Game victory.
• FSU ranks 3rd in the ACC and 27th in the country in red zone defense, holding opponents to a .767 success rate.
• Florida State registered 7.0 sacks in the win over Cal, its most in a game since also having 7.0 in the 2023 ACC Championship Game, and the most allowed by the Bears in a game since October 19, 2019. That sack total is also the most by an ACC team against an FBS opponent this season and tied for the 6th-highest single-game sack total nationally in 2024.
• Ten Florida State players have made their first collegiate start in 2024. Linebacker Blake Nichelson has started five games, and wide receiver Hykeem Williams has made four consecutive starts. Defensive back K.J. Kirkland has started four of the last five games. Offensive lineman Jaylen Early has started four games this season. Wide receiver Jalen Brown started the first two games of the season. Tight end Landen Thomas and offensive lineman André Otto made their first starts vs. Clemson and both started again at Duke. Linebacker Justin Cryer made his first start at Duke, while tight ends Brian Courtney and Jackson West made their first career starts vs. Memphis.