Giants vs. Commanders Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 1 (Can New York Cover?)

The New York Giants and Washington Commanders will face off in Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season – the second matchup of the week between NFC East opponents.

Washington is fresh off of an appearance in the NFC title game, and second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels is looking to show that he’s one of the best players in the league.

Meanwhile, the Giants have a new face under center in veteran Russell Wilson, as they aim to take advantage of what should be one of the best defenses in the NFL. Can Wilson play well enough for New York to get in the playoff conversation in the NFC?

The team’s Week 1 odds don’t inspire much confidence, as the best betting sites have set the Giants as six-point dogs in this matchup.

This season at SI Betting, we’re attempting to predict the final score of each NFL game as a fun way to help bettors decide on the spread or total in their wagers. We’ll still have our game previews, props and more, but this is a fun way to potentially hit big on an exact score prediction.

Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s where I’m leaning for the final score in Giants-Commanders on Sunday. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Moneyline

Total

This line has not moved since earlier in the week, as the Commanders remain six-point favorites at home against their division rival. While Washington was clearly the better team in 2024, it could be due for a bit of a step back in terms of overall record due to having to face a tougher schedule.

Meanwhile, the Giants are hoping that improved quarterback play will make them a better team against the number in 2025. 

Is Washington as good as its 2024 season suggests? In 2025, the Commanders lack a running game entering the 2024 season, and they relied on a lot of veterans to help improve them from a team that was in the top five in the 2024 NFL Draft. 

While Washington has great odds to make the playoffs this season, I’m not totally sold on it being a dominant team in the NFC.

So, that brings us to this pick. I think New York’s defense – mainly the team’s pass rush – could be amongst the best in the league, and it should keep it in more games in 2025. 

According to SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every game, every week of the season – it’s going to be tough for Washington to repeat the success of 2024: 

I’m banking on the Commanders taking a step back this season. Washington still has one of the worst defenses in the league, and it did little to fix that this offseason. I also don’t think the level of success they enjoyed last season is repeatable. Their fourth-down conversion rate of 78.95% is going to be extremely difficult to repeat, and their schedule is going to be much tougher.

Therefore, I’ll take the 6.5 points with the Giants when they face a Commanders team that I believe is overvalued in the betting market. New York has a competent quarterback this season in Russell Wilson, and their pass rush is expected to be one of the best in the NFL. That should be enough to keep this game inside the spread.

I agree with MacMillan, this Giants team has a pretty recognizable floor with Wilson under center and a strong defense. With this spread near a touchdown, I think the Giants can hang around in a divisional matchup. 

Final Score Prediction: Commanders 21, Giants 17

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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