NFL Pro fantasy football preview: Week 3 insights

After two weeks, the Bears pass defense is ranked 29th in NFL Pro’s overall efficiency, 29th in pressure rate, 30th in defensive efficiency with pressure and dead last in defensive efficiency against play action and intermediate passing. In summary: They have been very bad. Chicago has allowed the fourth-highest CPOE (9.1%) and third-highest success rate (54.7%) in the league, and they’ve allowed a 146.4 passer rating on downfield passes (10+ air yards), with 17.2 yards per attempt, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. After keeping J.J. McCarthy in check for the first three quarters of his NFL debut, the Bears defense has given up 421 yards and seven touchdowns over their last five quarters of football. To make matters worse, their best cornerback (by far), Jaylon Johnson, is now out indefinitely with a groin injury. Johnson is the only Bears defender allowing a passer rating lower than 80 as the nearest defender, and fellow CB Tyrique Stevenson has allowed an absurd 156.3 passer rating on eight targets (six catches, 126 yards and a TD). Chicago has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks (56.18), but they’ve also allowed an absurd 1.04 fantasy points per play to the position, roughly 37% more than the next-most so far (the Dolphins) and more than double the league average (0.45).

On Sunday, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and Co. will arrive in the Windy City off a Week 2 game with 361 passing yards on 52 attempts. There are 19 players with 10+ targets averaging 12+ air yards per target. Lamb and Pickens are two of them and sport the second- and fifth-highest catch rates over expected among that group. While most of Prescott’s numbers are middle-of-the-road after a slow start against Philly, his 9.3% CPOE is fifth-highest among qualified QBs. Plus, he’s faced pressure on 33 dropbacks, fifth-most in the league, with a starting schedule that featured the Eagles and Giants pass rushes. With a much softer matchup against the Chicago defense, Prescott could turn in one of the top fantasy weeks at the position.

Fantasy Fallout: Do whatever you can to start Prescott, Lamb, Pickens and even Jake Ferguson in Week 3. It might not be a bad idea to try to trade for one or two of them before Sunday. Prescott in particular could go from a perceived QB2 to a higher-tier QB1.