NFL Week 10 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips
Matchup X factor: 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. He’s only 14th in QBR since Week 6, and the Jaguars have a good defense that is fourth in EPA per play and top 10 against both the run and the pass. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: Over the past three games, the 49ers’ defense has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game. Given this recent statistical trend, managers should not hesitate to start Lawrence or wide receivers Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley. It will be interesting to see what adjustments the 49ers have made during the bye week. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The 49ers are 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games off a bye (2-4 ATS under Kyle Shanahan). Read more.
Moody’s pick: 49ers 30, Jaguars 27
Walder’s pick: 49ers 26, Jaguars 21
FPI prediction: SF, 56.2% (by an average of 2.1 points)
Storyline to watch: This is a matchup of the two best defenses in the NFL. The Browns, who lead the NFL in fewest yards allowed (234.8), are looking to finish as the league’s No. 1 defense for the first time since 1955. The Ravens, who top the NFL in fewest points allowed (13.8), have given up nine touchdowns on 105 drives (8.6%), their lowest rate since the 2000 Super Bowl team (8.2%). — Jamison Hensley
Bold prediction: Despite playing a Ravens defense that ranks No. 1 in efficiency, QB Deshaun Watson will play his best game in a Browns uniform, giving Cleveland a chance to pull off the upset. Watson, who returned from a rotator cuff strain a week ago, has not produced a QBR game topping 80.0 in his Browns career. He will achieve that feat Sunday. — Jake Trotter
Stat to know: Browns defensive end Myles Garrett is 0.5 sacks away from his sixth straight 10-sack season, which would extend the longest active streak in the NFL. He would be the seventh player with six or more straight seasons with 10-plus sacks since it became an official individual stat in 1982.
Matchup X factor: The Ravens’ run blocking. The Ravens rank fourth in run block win rate this season and second in EPA per designed carry. That will be critical against a Browns defense that is arguably the best in the league against the pass but not quite as strong stopping the run. As long as Baltimore can run the ball, it should be able to roll. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: Along with being the top two defenses in terms of points allowed per game, the Browns and Ravens are also in the top three for fewest points allowed per game. I don’t think this matchup is going to be a fantasy bonanza. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Ravens are 4-1 ATS this season against teams currently with winning records. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Ravens 31, Browns 21
Walder’s pick: Ravens 27, Browns 17
FPI prediction: BAL, 69.9% (by an average of 7.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Dawgs unleashed: How the Browns built one of the NFL’s top defenses … How the Ravens are dominating the NFL … Browns LT Wills to go on IR with MCL injury … John Harbaugh: ‘No doubt’ AFC North is NFL’s best division
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: ATL -2 (43.5)
Storyline to watch: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is set to make his 2023 debut barring any potential setback. It’ll be exactly 11 months since he last played, in Week 14 last season when he tore his ACL on “Monday Night Football” against the Patriots. As his welcome-back gift, he’ll face the sixth-ranked Falcons defense, which is ranked in the top 10 in passing yards allowed per game and per play. — Josh Weinfuss
Bold prediction: Both Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier will top 75 yards rushing, and each will score a touchdown. In what feels like a must-win game for the Falcons, they return their focus to what they do best against a Cardinals team that has allowed more than 100 yards rushing in seven of their past eight games. — Michael Rothstein
Stat to know: The Cardinals’ six-game losing streak is the NFL’s longest active streak. Arizona’s 1-15 record since Week 11 last season is the worst in the league. Another loss would put the Cardinals at 1-16 in their past 17 games, their worst record over a 17-game span since 1946 (1-16).
Matchup X factor: Murray. How could it not be? Will Murray be rusty? His old self? His old self but with less rushing? Arizona’s fortunes both in this game and the rest of the season (and, perhaps, for years to come) depend on the answers to those questions. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: Cardinals WR Marquise Brown and Murray have meshed in their few games together as Cardinals, as Murray has averaged 21.1 fantasy points in the eight games he has played with Brown. So both the QB and the WR might benefit against the Falcons. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their past five games as favorites (1-5 ATS as favorites this season). Since 2018, the Falcons are 13-26 ATS as favorites (6-11 ATS under Arthur Smith). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Cardinals 19, Falcons 18
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 23, Falcons 20
FPI prediction: ATL, 57.3% (by an average of 2.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Falcons averse to playing musical chairs with QBs … What’s at stake for Murray, Cardinals over final eight games
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: DET -3 (48.5)
Storyline to watch: Sunday will be something of a reunion for Brandon Staley and Jared Goff. Staley used to coach against Goff daily at practice when he was defensive coordinator for the Rams in 2020 and Goff was the Rams’ starting quarterback. That 2020 season was the last season with the Rams for both: Goff was traded to Detroit and Staley became coach of the Chargers. On Sunday, they will face off for the first time since. — Kris Rhim
Bold prediction: Rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs will rush for 100 yards or more for a second straight game. Although the Chargers’ defense is holding teams to only 89.8 rushing yards per game, which is tied for sixth in the NFL, Gibbs will continue to shine as he builds off his breakout performance on “Monday Night Football” in Week 8, when he rushed for a career-best 152 yards on 26 carries. Gibbs, the No. 12 overall pick, is confident, and the Lions want to continue to keep him involved. — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: The Chargers’ plus-9 turnover margin is tied with the Bengals for the best in NFL. They have played 11 straight games without losing the turnover battle, the longest active streak in the NFL and their longest streak since 2004 (14 straight).
Matchup X factor: Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston. Beating the Jets with a short-handed receiving corps is one thing; the Lions are a whole other ballgame. And with Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer hurt, the Chargers really need Johnston to step up. So far, it hasn’t happened. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: The Lions’ offense ranks 24th in red zone efficiency. It was something offensive coordinator Ben Johnson focused on during the bye week. The Lions, who rank ninth in points per game, could be even more successful with a revamped red zone package against a Chargers defense that ranks 16th in red zone efficiency. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Lions are 16-3 ATS in games in November or later under Dan Campbell (9-1 ATS last season). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Lions 35, Chargers 30
Walder’s pick: Lions 34, Chargers 27
FPI prediction: LAC, 59% (by an average of 3.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Campbell, Lions believe there’s room for growth despite 6-2 start … Chargers’ defense finds its groove … Lions trade pick to Browns for Peoples-Jones … Inside the Jackson breakup
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: DAL -17 (38.5)
Storyline to watch: Dak Prescott has won 11 straight games against the Giants after losing both contests to New York as a rookie. He has 23 touchdown passes against the Giants, the most against any team. It seems likely he’ll get to 12 consecutive wins, as the Giants will start undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito at quarterback with Daniel Jones out for the season because of a torn ACL. The Cowboys are 3-0 at AT&T Stadium with an average margin of victory of 26 points. — Todd Archer
Bold prediction: The Giants will hold Dallas under 20 points. Let’s consider last week in Las Vegas a blip on the radar. New York’s defense had allowed 33 points in the previous three games, which included a matchup with Josh Allen in Buffalo. This group has pride, and the game plan will be to slow down this contest. The Giants will do that with their defense and running game (Saquon Barkley). — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: The Cowboys are 10-1 following a loss since the start of the 2021 season, the best win percentage in the NFL. Dallas has outscored its opponents by more than 16 points per game in that situation (32.4-16.3) and has a plus-17 turnover differential. The Cowboys have not suffered consecutive regular-season losses since Weeks 11 and 12 of the 2021 season.
Matchup X factor: Giants edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux. It seems hard to imagine the Giants scoring on offense, so they probably will need pick-sixes or strip sacks galore to have a chance. Thibodeaux has 8.5 sacks. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: CeeDee Lamb shares a Cowboys franchise record with Michael Irvin for the most games with 10 receptions and 150 receiving yards, each achieving this feat three times. In his career, Lamb has averaged 16 fantasy points per game against the Giants. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Giants games are 8-1 to the under, the highest under percentage in the NFL. Giants games have gone under the total in seven straight games, the longest active streak. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Cowboys 33, Giants 12
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 40, Giants 3
FPI prediction: DAL, 89.8% (by an average of 17.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Is this the beginning of the end for Jones in NY? … Prescott putting body on the line for Cowboys’ offense … Giants DC hurt by McKinney’s comments … Cowboys not discouraged by loss to Eagles
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: SEA -6.5 (44.5)
Storyline to watch: Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith is mired in a turnover funk, with six interceptions plus two lost fumbles over the past four games. Not all of those were Smith’s fault, and the Seahawks’ offensive issues go well beyond their quarterback. After one of the worst losses of the Pete Carroll era last week, the Seahawks have a bounce-back opportunity against the Commanders’ 28th-ranked defense, which is allowing 368.9 yards per game. Washington traded two big defensive threats, defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young, at the deadline. — Brady Henderson
Bold prediction: Seattle will have three pass plays of 25 yards or more, with receiver Tyler Lockett grabbing two of those — one for a touchdown. Washington has allowed 22 pass plays of 25 yards or more, second most in the NFL, and it would have been more had New England executed better on several opportunities last week. The Seahawks have only 16 such pass plays, 14th in the league, but preventing these plays has been the Commanders’ No. 1 issue on defense. — John Keim
Stat to know: Seahawks linebacker Boye Mafe has six straight games with at least one full sack, tied for the longest streak by a Seahawks player since 1982, when sacks became official (Michael Sinclair, six straight from 1997 to ’98). He faces Washington QB Sam Howell, who has been sacked a league-high 44 times.
Matchup X factor: Commanders cornerback Benjamin St-Juste. Kendall Fuller is having a very nice season, but the Seahawks have two great receivers who need stopping in DK Metcalf and Lockett. St-Juste’s numbers haven’t been good: He’s allowing 1.7 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats, fourth most among outside corners with at least 200 coverage snaps. — Walder
Injuries: Commanders | Seahawks
What to know for fantasy: Quarterbacks have scored the second-most fantasy points per game against the Commanders’ defense. However, over the past four games the Seahawks have scored a touchdown on just 13% of their drives. Smith’s fantasy ceiling could be low in this game unless this improves. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Commanders are 4-0 ATS as road underdogs. They are 4-1 ATS overall on the road. The Commanders are also 8-2-2 ATS in their past 12 games as underdogs. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 28, Commanders 21
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 23, Commanders 17
FPI prediction: SEA, 63.5% (by an average of 4.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Young ‘wasn’t mad’ about trade to 49ers … Pete Carroll defends QB Smith after Seahawks routed by Ravens … We found our next quarterback’: Howell making case to be Commanders’ future at QB
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: NYJ -1 (36.5)
Storyline to watch: While Raiders interim coach Antonio Pierce has made it a point to emphasize that he is not the story, there has been an immediate and noticeable change in culture in Silver and Blackdom under his watch, and the players have reacted accordingly. From Pierce’s defensive mindset — the Raiders had eight sacks in his debut — to the way the Jets reflect coach Robert Saleh (New York has the No. 3-ranked passing defense in the league), expect a slugfest. “It ain’t going to be a shootout, I can tell you that,” Pierce laughed. “The best part about it, me and Robert don’t play against one another. He’s got to get Davante [Adams], I’ve got to worry about [Quinnen] Williams and all those guys that they’ve got on their side of the ball.” — Paul Gutierrez
Bold prediction: Jets QB Zach Wilson and Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell will combine for fewer than 300 passing yards. The Jets won’t have any problem with the Las Vegas rookie after holding the Chargers’ Justin Herbert to a career-low 136 yards. Likewise, the Raiders will limit Wilson, who has posted fewer than 200 yards in five of eight games. Don’t be surprised if the Jets turn to Tim Boyle if Wilson fails to generate offense in the first half. — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: The Jets have had eight offensive touchdowns, the fewest in the NFL and tied for the third fewest in their first eight games of a season in franchise history. The only seasons when they had fewer offensive touchdowns through eight games were in 1976 and 2020 (seven in both seasons).
Matchup X factor: The Jets’ offensive line. Let’s be clear: Wilson is the Jets’ No. 1 problem right now. But the offensive line has to make his life easier, too. It should be able to do that against a weak Raiders pass rush. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: The Jets’ defense allows the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Because of this, New York’s defense allows running backs to score the 10th-most fantasy points per game, but the Jets rank third in run stop win rate. Josh Jacobs has averaged 16 fantasy points per game in 69 games in which he has had 15 or more touches. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Raiders have covered three straight home games. All four Raiders home games have gone under the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Raiders 19, Jets 14
Walder’s pick: Jets 20, Raiders 13
FPI prediction: NYJ, 55.6% (by an average of 1.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Coach Robert Saleh ‘on the same page’ with Jets leadership on Wilson … Raiders hope Wilson can blossom down the stretch … Rodgers hints at return timeline: ‘Few fortnights’ … Is Raiders’ breakthrough performance against Giants sustainable?
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: BUF -7 (46.5)
Storyline to watch: Both of these offenses are looking to buck some unwanted trends. For the Bills, they’re looking to win the turnover battle for the first time since Week 4; on the Broncos’ side, prime time has not been kind to quarterback Russell Wilson, who is averaging 12 points per game in five prime-time starts with Denver — the fourth lowest through a player’s first five prime-time starts with a franchise since the merger in 1970. — Alaina Getzenberg
Bold prediction: Von Miller will do his best to remind his former team why he is one of the best defensive players in the franchise’s history by recording two sacks. Miller has just one quarterback hit and no sacks since his return last month from a torn ACL he suffered during the 2022 season, but this is the first time he has faced the Broncos since Denver traded him just before 2021 trade deadline. Miller had all eight of his Pro Bowl seasons with the Broncos, totaled 110.5 sacks in his 10 years with the team and turned in one of the best defensive performances in Super Bowl history when he was named MVP of Super Bowl 50 — the last postseason game the Broncos played in. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Broncos have lost seven consecutive “Monday Night Football” games, the second-longest active streak in the NFL (the Giants have lost eight straight).
Matchup X factor: Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas. The Bills’ pass defense needs help: Since Week 6, it ranks 29th in EPA per dropback allowed. Someone has to step up, and Douglas, the player acquired from Green Bay at the trade deadline, is a logical person to provide improvement. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: The Broncos have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. After Dawson Knox‘s injury, fantasy managers should start Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid, who has scored 15 or more fantasy points in three consecutive games. You shouldn’t overlook James Cook, because no other defense gives up more fantasy points per game to running backs than the Broncos. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bills are 0-5 ATS in their past five games, the longest active streak in the NFL and the Bills’ longest streak since a six-game streak from 1976 to ’77. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bills 24, Broncos 20
Walder’s pick: Bills 30, Broncos 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 78.9% (by an average of 10.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Will the Broncos right the ship coming off their bye week? … Allen, Bills still struggling to get their offense on track
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