NFL Week 11 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips
Rams storyline to watch: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown an interception in six straight games, which is the second-longest active streak in the NFL, according to ESPN Research. The Patriots’ defense has grabbed only four interceptions all season, which is tied for 27th in the league. — Sarah Barshop
Patriots storyline to watch: Veteran Yannick Ngakoue, who was claimed on waivers from the Ravens on Nov. 8, is expected to make his Patriots debut with his primary contributions coming as a pass rusher. The Patriots’ defense had its best third-down performance of the season last week, holding the Bears to a 1-of-14 success rate and hopes to continue that against a Rams offense that was 3-of-12 on third down in last week’s loss to the Dolphins. — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: The Patriots snapped an eight-game home losing streak against the Jets in Week 8. They’re seeking consecutive home wins for the first time since November 2022.
Bold prediction: Rams running back Kyren Williams will record 25-plus carries. The Patriots’ defense struggles to stop the run and the pass, but I expect the Rams to build a bit of a lead here and then let Williams carry them on long drives the rest of the way. They have the second-highest success rate (48%) on designed carries. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Patriots tight end Hunter Henry. He had a disappointing Week 10 but had scored 12-plus fantasy points in three of his previous four games. Henry has built great chemistry with quarterback Drake Maye and has a favorable matchup against a Rams defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Kahler’s pick: Rams 29, Patriots 27
Moody’s pick: Rams 22, Patriots 19
Walder’s pick: Rams 27, Patriots 17
FPI prediction: LAR, 63.5% (by an average of 5.5 points)
Browns storyline to watch: The Browns are back from their bye week, and defensive communication is a point of emphasis after Cleveland gave up a pair of deep touchdown passes in a Week 9 loss to the Chargers. It will be key against a Saints offense that rediscovered its explosive passing game from earlier in the season. New Orleans completed a season-high five passes of 20 or more yards in last week’s win over the Falcons. — Daniel Oyefusi
Saints storyline to watch: The Saints had a late forced fumble and interception to seal a win against the Falcons last week, and they hope they can make some of those plays against former quarterback Jameis Winston, who has had five interceptions in his past four starts (two in two starts as a Saint in 2023 and three last week). The Saints heaped praise on Winston as a teammate and leader this week, but Saints safety Tyrann Mathieu, who had an interception last week, also joked, “I’m expecting a shot, first play of the game, Jameis. Throw it up there.” — Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: A loss for the Saints will be the franchise’s worst 11-game start to a season since 2005, when they also went 3-8.
Bold prediction: Browns wide receiver Elijah Moore will have 60-plus receiving yards. He had nine targets a week ago and managed only 28 yards, but I expect that target volume to still be there, especially since he might often draw Alontae Taylor, who has allowed 1.9 yards per coverage snap this season (third most among slot corners), per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Browns wide receiver Cedric Tillman. Cleveland is coming off a bye with Winston back under center and Tillman as his No. 1 target. The pair will be up against a Saints defense that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to wideouts. Tillman has been consistent, scoring 18-plus fantasy points in each of his past three games and racking up 10-plus targets in two of those. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their past six games (they covered last week). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Browns 22, Saints 20
Moody’s pick: Browns 27, Saints 24
Walder’s pick: Browns 30, Saints 23
FPI prediction: CLE, 50.0% (by an average of 0.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Browns GM noncommittal on Watson’s future in Cleveland … How Saints’ salary cap math could impact Carr, veterans … LT Wills: ‘Business decision’ to sit out game backfired
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: NYJ -4 (43.5 O/U)
Colts storyline to watch: Quarterback Anthony Richardson returns to the lineup for the Colts, and that could be a boost for Indy’s run game. In the five full games Richardson played this season, the Colts averaged 5.2 yards per carry and 142.4 rushing yards per game and had 28 rushes of 10 yards or longer. The Colts recorded seven of their nine total rushing touchdowns in those five games. Meanwhile, running back Jonathan Taylor has four 100-yard performances in just seven games this season. — Stephen Holder
Jets storyline to watch: The Jets, who missed 20 tackles in last week’s blowout loss to the Cardinals, put a major emphasis on tackling fundamentals in practice. Interim coach Jeff Ulbrich, a former NFL linebacker, gave a tackling presentation to the entire team (yes, even offense). They also practiced in pads more than usual. In the past five games, the Jets have allowed 501 yards after contact, ranking 31st over that span. — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: Jets wide receiver Davante Adams‘ 51% catch percentage is the second worst in the NFL since Week 7 among pass catchers with a minimum of 25 targets.
Bold prediction: Richardson will break off a 30-plus-yard run and lead the Colts to victory. Richardson certainly comes with his fair share of variance, but that can work in Indianapolis’ favor, too. And you can usually count on the Jets to beat themselves. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He hasn’t delivered the fantasy season that managers were hoping for, with just two games with more than 20 fantasy points. However, Rodgers has a favorable matchup against a Colts defense that allows the seventh-most passing yards per game and the fifth-highest completion percentage. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Colts are 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Colts 21, Jets 14
Moody’s pick: Jets 24, Colts 17
Walder’s pick: Colts 23, Jets 17
FPI prediction: NYJ, 59.2% (by an average of 3.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Colts bench Flacco, turn back to Richardson at QB … Inside Rodgers’ complicated relationship with the Jets … How does Ulbrich compare to Saleh?
4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DEN -2.5 (44.5 O/U)
Falcons storyline to watch: The Falcons allow the highest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks in the league (70.3%), are tied for worst in quarterback pressure percentage (27.4%) and have the fewest sacks (9). Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has fared much better while not under pressure — completing 70.2%, vs. 43.9% when under duress. — Marc Raimondi
Broncos storyline to watch: The Falcons will be the fourth offense currently ranked in the top 10 that the Broncos have faced this season. Two times (against Tampa and Kansas City), Denver’s defense made life fairly miserable for those offenses, and one offense (Baltimore) put together seven scoring drives. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins is seeking to avoid having consecutive games without a passing touchdown for the first time in his career as a starter.
Bold prediction: The Broncos’ defense will score a touchdown. Atlanta’s offense versus Denver’s defense is a strength-on-strength battle, but the Broncos’ defense, which is fourth in EPA per play, is especially good against the pass. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Nix. The rookie is clearly in full command, and coach Sean Payton continues to impress as a playcaller. Nix has been a reliable fantasy performer, scoring 16 or more points in five of his past six games, including three with 20-plus points. The Falcons give up the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Falcons are 3-1 ATS on the road this season after going 2-7 ATS on the road last season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Falcons 24, Broncos 22
Moody’s pick: Broncos 27, Falcons 21
Walder’s pick: Broncos 20, Falcons 17
FPI prediction: ATL, 58.1% (by an average of 2.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Falcons back kicker Koo despite 3 missed field goals in loss … Rookie RB Estime could be spark for Broncos’ backfield … Falcons need better starts … Tough loss to Chiefs shows Broncos’ limited margin for error
4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: SF -6.5 (45.5 O/U)
Seahawks storyline to watch: The tables have turned on an NFC West rivalry the Seahawks used to dominate. They’ve lost six straight regular-season and playoff games to the 49ers by a combined score of 184-96, including a 36-24 defeat in Week 6 that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. Seattle could have several key players available Sunday who didn’t play in the first meeting, such as Abraham Lucas, Byron Murphy II, Riq Woolen and trade acquisition Ernest Jones IV. — Brady Henderson
49ers storyline to watch: Christian McCaffrey‘s return last week helped him knock some rust off before facing a team against which he has had great success. McCaffrey has averaged 163 scrimmage yards per game in six meetings with Seattle and reached 125 in all. If he gets to 125 again Sunday, he’d tie Jim Brown (vs. Philadelphia) as the only player in NFL history to post 125-plus scrimmage yards against one team seven consecutive times. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is 8-2 in his career against division opponents and has a 76.7 QBR in those games. That’s the second-highest QBR by any quarterback since the metric was introduced in 2006 (minimum of 10 starts).
Bold prediction: Jones will record a sack. He’s a great blitzer but wasn’t used to rushing the passer much in Tennessee. Last week he recorded a season-high 10 pass rushes, and I expect coach Mike Macdonald will want to keep deploying him like that. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III. He has seen a dip in fantasy production lately. However, the 49ers allowed a combined 36.7 fantasy points to Buccaneers running backs Rachaad White and Bucky Irving in Week 10, showing vulnerability to the run. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The 49ers are 5-0 outright and 4-1 ATS in five meetings since 2022. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: 49ers 28, Seahawks 24
Moody’s pick: 49ers 31, Seahawks 20
Walder’s pick: 49ers 29, Seahawks 27
FPI prediction: SF, 69.1% (by an average of 6.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Seahawks activate Lucas from PUP, put Fant on IR … McCaffrey’s return has 49ers returning to roots … Seahawks waive leading tackler Dodson in ILB shake-up … 49ers’ Lenoir gets 5-year, $92M extension
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -2 (45.5 O/U)
Chiefs storyline to watch: In seven career games against the Chiefs, counting three in the playoffs, quarterback Josh Allen has 16 touchdown passes, three interceptions and a QBR of 74. Are the Chiefs capable of keeping him from another big game this time, even if Allen is throwing to a group of receivers depleted by injuries? In the past two weeks, the Chiefs put up little resistance against Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield and Denver’s Bo Nix. — Adam Teicher
Bills storyline to watch: Can the Bills’ defense continue to limit the Chiefs’ offense in the regular season? The Bills have held the Chiefs to 20.8 points per game in four regular-season meetings since 2020. Taking the ball away is a point of emphasis for this defense and could be the key to success. The Bills have 12 straight games with at least one takeaway, the second-longest active streak in the NFL after the Lions (13). — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Bills have won five straight games; Buffalo’s plus-61 scoring margin during the win streak is the third highest by any team in the NFL over that span, trailing only the Lions (plus-91) and the Eagles (plus-82)
Bold prediction: Bills cornerback Christian Benford will pick off quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Benford is playing great this season. In fact, no outside cornerback has allowed fewer yards per coverage snap (0.6) than he has, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Part of that is because he’s allowing fewer targets than average (13%), but it’s also that he has a minus-9% completion percentage allowed over expectation. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt. Kansas City is first in time of possession (33:01), which means we should see a lot of Hunt. He has had 20-plus touches in each of his past four games, scoring at least 17 fantasy points in three of them. The Bills’ defense is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their past four conference games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bills 29, Chiefs 27
Moody’s pick: Bills 25, Chiefs 23
Walder’s pick: Bills 24, Chiefs 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 53.1% (by an average of 1.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: All the strange — and lucky — ways the Chiefs have gone 9-0 … Bills’ offensive stars called these plays for themselves — here’s how they worked out
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: LAC -1.5 (47.5 O/U)
Bengals storyline to watch: Can quarterback Joe Burrow keep attacking split-safety looks? This season, Burrow has the fifth-highest yards per attempt (8.4) against those safety shells, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. The Chargers use the split-safety formation on 58.1% of opponent dropbacks, the second-highest clip in the league. — Ben Baby
Chargers storyline to watch: Sunday will be the first big test for the Chargers’ defense, which ranks first in the NFL in points allowed per game (13.1). The Bengals are one of the NFL’s best offenses, averaging the sixth-most points per game this year (26.1). — Kris Rhim
Stat to know: A win for the Bengals would increase their chances of making the playoffs from 37% to 52%, according to ESPN Analytics.
Bold prediction: Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston will record 80-plus receiving yards and a touchdown. That’s because he will most often line up in front of Cam Taylor-Britt. The Bengals cornerback has allowed 2.0 yards per coverage snap this year, second most among his position, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. The Chargers have leaned more on Herbert and the passing game after the bye. He has had 30 or more pass attempts in three of his past five games. It’s important to note that Herbert has scored at least 19 fantasy points in three consecutive games. The Bengals allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bengals are 5-0 ATS on the road, while the Chargers are 4-0 ATS at home this season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bengals 25, Chargers 23
Moody’s pick: Chargers 27, Bengals 23
Walder’s pick: Bengals 27, Chargers 24
FPI prediction: LAC, 52.1% (by an average of 0.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Childhood photo links Zac Taylor, Jim Harbaugh before Bengals-Chargers … Do the Chargers have the NFL’s best defense? We’re about to find out … Bengals coach to advocate over potential late hits of Joe Burrow
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC | ESPN BET: HOU -7.5 (47.5 O/U)
Texans storyline to watch: The Texans are averaging 119 rushing yards per game, fueled by running back Joe Mixon, who has the third-highest average per game (98.3). The Cowboys are allowing 152.1 rushing yards per game, so this could lead to a huge night from Mixon. Also, wideout Nico Collins (hamstring) returns this week after missing the past five games, which should open up more running lanes for Mixon. — DJ Bien-Aime
Cowboys storyline to watch: Can the second week of Cooper Rush as the starting quarterback be better than the first? He averaged 1.96 yards per attempt last week against the Eagles, so it needs to be. The Cowboys are looking for their first win of the season at AT&T Stadium (0-4) .They have had three home losses by at least 25 points, matching the most in team history. The Cowboys have not lost five straight home games since 2015, when they finished 4-12. — Todd Archer
Stat to know: The Texans’ 15 takeaways since Week 6 leads the NFL. Houston produced only three takeaways over Weeks 1-5.
Bold prediction: The Cowboys will fail to cross midfield in the first half even with the sun having already set. Instead, their biggest problem will be themselves. And part of the equation here is that Houston will run all over them and own time of possession, barely giving Rush much time to work anyway. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Mixon. Houston’s passing game could get a boost with Collins back, but the Cowboys’ defense remains vulnerable against the run. Dallas has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, and its defensive front ranks 30th in run stop win rate (27.1%). See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their past four games, their longest ATS losing streak since 2020 (eight straight). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Texans 30, Cowboys 9
Moody’s pick: Texans 28, Cowboys 17
Walder’s pick: Texans 30, Cowboys 6
FPI prediction: HOU, 71.1% (by an average of 8.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: How bad is Cowboys’ offense? Worst start in McCarthy’s career … What Prescott’s season-ending surgery would mean for Cowboys
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