NFL Week 13 picks against the spread: Stay warm and pick the relaxing sides on Thanksgiving

People like to say that Thanksgiving is about family, but it’s really about eating weird stuff that you normally don’t, taking the day off from work and reducing stress — and let’s face it, some family members can be a challenge to your relaxation goals.

So, don’t add to your anxiety by picking non-relaxing sides in your three Turkey Day football games.

The Detroit Lions have scored more than 40 points in half of their last eight games (all wins) … why would you want to cheer against that?

And Tua Tagovailoa. Every football fan who watches the Miami Dolphins is concerned about his safety after all the concussions that he has sustained and it’s been great to see him back and dealing again. Tagovailoa has completed 70 percent or more of his passes in five straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.

But it’s going to be cold in Green Bay on Thursday night, and he is 0-5 in temperatures under 40 degrees. (Heck, Tua is 6-14 in temperatures under 70 degrees.) Odds are that he is going to struggle again, and as you sink into your couch watching the game, wouldn’t picking the Green Bay Packers just be a better, more relaxing experience as you digest a brined turkey, canned cranberries, green bean casserole and marshmallow-topped sweet potatoes?

GO DEEPER

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Last week’s record: 7-6 against the spread, 2-3 on best bets.

Season record: 73-104-2 against the spread, 21-37-2 on best bets.

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

With all the focus and emotional roller coastering this season surrounding Caleb Williams, the Bears defense is an unsung reason they have lost five straight games. Chicago was ranked seventh in yards per game, seventh in sacks, second in opposing QB passer rating and third in defensive EPA/play during its 4-2 start, and those numbers are down to 30th, 26th, 22nd 16th the last five games. Next up, the Bears face the hottest offense in the NFL. And the 10-1 Lions are plenty motivated — they haven’t won on Thanksgiving since 2016. They will be able to stop the run and put mental pressure on Williams. The Lions lead the league in opposing passer rating (63.3) and EPA per play (0.20) the last four weeks. One thing that Williams does have going for him is a rejuvenated Keenan Allen — he must read the column as we said he had secretly retired. We are a little worried about the back-door cover with such a big number, but maybe the Bears run out of gas coming off an overtime loss on a short week.

The pick: Lions 

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We should start listing our regrets from the previous week. The Commanders as big favorites were a bad pick over the Cowboys, because the Cowboys defense was clearly motivated going against Dan Quinn, its beloved former defensive coordinator, and people didn’t take into account the improvement Cooper Rush had made from his first start to his second. I liked Dallas’ chances of making it two wins in a row because the Giants brass was clearly tanking. But then the news came that Tommy DeVito’s forearm was tender and that he’s not flying with the team and is questionable for Thursday (though DeVito said Tuesday that he plans to play). Drew Lock was the Giants’ backup behind Daniel Jones all year before Jones was released and has a live arm. He would get Malik Nabers going again if he starts, as the Cowboys defense is so bad against the run that they will be focused on containing Tyrone Tracy Jr. at first. That’s two explosive players who have been under the radar who will enjoy the Cowboys’ hospitality … make it three, as Dexter Lawrence II leads all NFL defensive tackles with nine sacks. Don’t forget that Dallas has lost all five of its home games, is allowing 28.5 points per game the last four weeks and is 2-11 against the spread on Thanksgiving since 2012.

The pick: Giants 

Cold weather doesn’t care about feelings. The wind chill factor laughs at the Dolphins being mad about the narrative that they are a little soft — they are 0-3 under coach Mike McDaniel in temperatures under 40 degrees, and it’s supposed to get down to the teens on Thursday night. The Dolphins do have quick-trigger Tua, and have scored on a higher percentage of their drives since Week 8 (56.3 percent) than anyone else in the NFL. The Packers must get pressure on Tagovailoa and not miss any tackles on all the quick outs and swing passes. And they must continue to control the trenches — they are very good against the run and offensively, they solved their red-zone issues (they were ranked 27th) last week by going 5 for 5, including three touchdowns by Josh Jacobs. (He’s forced the most missed tackles, 15, of any ball carrier this season.) Miami’s defense has improved since the return of Zach Sieler, and Chop Robinson leads the NFL in pass pressure percentage the past four weeks at 25.8 percent. We still don’t trust Jordan Love (EPA per dropback on a blitz of -0.33 and a third down passing conversion percentage of 26.8), but give us the better team up front, at home. Did we mention the Packers are both 8-3 overall and against the spread when it’s 32 degrees or below under Matt LaFleur?

The pick: Packers 

We have gone for the cheese a few times this season, but the 10-1 Chiefs just don’t cover big point spreads this season. While they win the games (6-0), they are 0-5-1 against the spread when favored by more than six or more points. Last week, they need another tightrope run by Patrick Mahomes just to beat the freakin’ Panthers. Now they get the Raiders again. The Raiders have lost nine straight games and have not covered the spread since they lost to the Chiefs by 7 a month ago. They are the worst rushing team in the league, turn the ball over a lot and have a lot of injuries on defense. Aidan O’Connell is back — maybe a week early — from a broken thumb, but the Raiders had no choice as Gardner Minshew II broke his collarbone. The Chiefs welcome back Isiah Pacheco and avenge last year’s Raiders win in Kansas City.

The pick: Chiefs 

The Chargers were exposed a little bit on Monday night. They are a cute story this season with Jim Harbaugh but can’t hang with the big boys as the Ravens asserted their will in that one. Their lack of offensive playmakers was exposed for the first time in a while, and they couldn’t take advantage of a leaky Ravens defense. The Falcons, coming off a bye week, likely took some notes from that game and should be able to ride Bijan Robinson. They have to, as Atlanta’s offensive line doesn’t often do Kirk Cousins a lot of favors and receiver Darnell Mooney is trying to play coming off a hamstring injury. The Falcons scored 23 points in their last two games combined as Mooney and Drake London rank 56th (last) and 53rd, respectively, in separation when targeted in the past four weeks. Atlanta was 6-3 before two straight losses had everyone leaving the Falcons for dead, but this is a very winnable game against a good, not great team, hitting the road after a short week.

The pick: Falcons 

In Groundhog Day, Phil finally just punches Ned for saying “hey” for seemingly the 85th time. That’s where I am at with the Bengals having must-win games and then losing and having another must-win game. This time, they are rested! Whoop-de-do! Joe Burrow will try and continue the best season by a 4-7 quarterback ever and Tee Higgins’ return should only give the Steelers more headaches. Burrow missed both games against the Steelers last season but threw for 355 yards and got the win in their last meeting in 2022. It will be cold, but it doesn’t seem like it will be windy as Russell Wilson will have a chance to match Burrow against a bad Bengals secondary. The Bengals also don’t stop the run, so backup quarterback Justin Fields could also be a factor in the red zone. The Bengals must win, but here’s the problem: They haven’t beaten a good team all season. Go ahead, look it up.

The pick: Steelers 

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C.J. Stroud was supposed to magically improve when Nico Collins got back, but … it hasn’t happened. He just got outplayed by Will Levis. He has only completed 56 percent of his passes the last four weeks and ranks 29th with an -0.09 EPA per dropback and 30th with and -0.24 EPA per blitz over that span. Maybe it’s all the trauma. Stroud is looking like a rich man’s David Carr, as he has been the most pressured QB this season (191). The Texans have become predictable and the Titans were able to stuff Joe Mixon and the run game last week. The Jaguars will not. The Jaguars also will not be able to cover Collins. The only hope for the Jaguars is Trevor Lawrence, who apparently is going to play rather than have shoulder surgery. Lawrence wasn’t setting the world on fire when he was healthy, and the Texans defense is not very shoulder-friendly. Houston leads the league with 197 QB pressures, and Danielle Hunter (10 1/2) and Will Anderson Jr. (9 1/2) are the best sack duo going.

The pick: Texans 

It’s lonely at the bottom, and we have very few friends as we pick loser after loser this season. One of our few friends was the Vikings defense. Until last week, when it gave up 11 points in the last minute to the Bears to blow an easy ATS win as one of our best bets. Sam Darnold did get the Vikings the 3-point win (they were favored by 3.5) in overtime as, after a midseason hiccup, he is money again. He became the ninth QB in NFL history with at least nine games with a rating of 103-plus in his first 11 games of the season. He gets the Cardinals next, and they are better against the run than pass. The Cardinals are impossible to predict. They didn’t show up last week (for the third time this season) but also won four straight games at one point. Kyler Murray is very good against the blitz, which bodes well against the Vikings. While Arizona ranks second in explosive play percentage in the past four weeks at 15.2 percent, it only has one passing TD in the span (31st behind Jacksonville). Yeah … go ahead and flip a coin.

The pick: Cardinals 

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The Patriots are almost as hard to read as the Cardinals. They turned in a pathetic effort against the Dolphins last week, and owner Robert Kraft probably has no idea if he made the right choice with coach Jarod Mayo. Drake Maye was the right choice as franchise QB, but he is not getting much help right now from his offensive line or from his running backs or receivers. Luckily, the Colts are pretty vanilla on defense and don’t have many studs. Rhamondre Stevenson and Hunter Henry might even be fantasy factors this week. (Kayshon Boutte has been targeted 22 times the past four weeks and has the lowest passer rating when targeted with a 44.5 mark, so like we said, Maye doesn’t have much.) As for the other side of the ball, Colts QB Anthony Richardson’s -0.15 EPA per dropback rate and 60.4 passer rating last week actually stand as his second best performance in his last four starts. It’s a trap line at 2.5, and we avoid traps even if the alternative is also painful.

The pick: Patriots

Aaron Rodgers said he may come back next year, and Breece Hall immediately said he might not play this Sunday. Coincidence? Nah, we’re just kidding. There is no correlation. Hall needs to play with his balky knee for Rodgers’ sake because the Seahawks are terrible against the run but 11th in QB pressure rate. Either way, the Jets will take the air out of the ball. New York spends the most time on the play clock with an average snap coming with 7.8 seconds left, and they average 59.0 offensive plays per game (28th) and 18.5 points (27th). Meanwhile, and forgive me if you’ve heard this before, but the Seahawks are also very hard to predict. They won three games, lost four out of five and then won two in a row. And that’s without getting Kenneth Walker III going. The Jets don’t do a great job of stopping the run, so maybe Walker has a big game. Or maybe Seattle keeps turning to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who ranks second in EPA per reception in the past four weeks with a 1.5 rate. I don’t want to pick the Jets, but the Seahawks as road favorites? People hate Rodgers and his reunited bro Davante Adams that much?

The pick: Jets

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Jayden Daniels was supposedly over the rib injury, but he still doesn’t look the same. His -0.20 EPA per dropback rate last week was the worst of his career (not counting Week 7 when he took two dropbacks). Maybe it’s just the rookie wall. Daniels should be OK here, as the Titans are not that tough but somehow decent defensively despite not getting much pressure and missing a couple of cornerbacks. Tennessee has gone 2-2 after a 1-6 start thanks to a surprising improvement by Will Levis — he’s produced at least a 123.3 passer rating in two of the past three games and I swear I heard more than one Brett Favre comparison this week. He can throw it a mile, and he has some guys in Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine who can go get it. Ridley (ankle) didn’t practice Wednesday, while Westbrook-Ikhine leads the league the past four weeks in EPA per reception with a 1.9 rate. We’ll ride with the struggling QB, though, as the Commanders like to blitz and Levis/Favre likes to make mistakes when blitzed.

The pick: Commanders

The Buccaneers had a great bye week, knowing they had matchups with Tommy Cutlets and Bryce Young coming up. They fried Cutlets and the Giants last week, but had to be surprised when they popped in the Panthers-Chiefs tape on Monday and saw Young dealing. Young had time, thanks to his offensive line, to lead a tying drive late in the game and his 0.19 EPA per dropback rate against a good Chiefs defense was his second time in three weeks with an EPA rate of at least 0.10. And the Buccaneers don’t exactly have a great pass defense. Or even good. In the last four weeks, it ranks last in third down conversion percentage (55.0 percent), and 28th in EPA per play (-0.09) — yet somehow only gives up 20.0 points per game. The Panthers hung around in both games against Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers last season when Young was horrific, and there is no reason to think they can’t do that again.

The pick: Panthers 

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The Saints have won two games in a row since firing Dennis Allen and could make it three in a row — if they could reverse that trade back then of cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Rams receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are going to be fighting for the football like your brother-in-law and uncle over that last turkey leg. Matthew Stafford might be able to feed them both, as the Saints don’t generate much pressure. And if the Saints put too many defensive backs on the field, the Rams can punish them with Kyren Williams and a getting-healthier offensive line. The Saints can win this game if Derek Carr stands tall against the Rams pressure and Marquez Valdes-Scantling turns in his third straight game of catching deep passes … yeah, that’s not happening.

The pick: Rams 

We all take Lamar Jackson for granted. Some of those moves Monday night were prime Barry Sanders. And this season, Jackson is making defenses pay with his arm. His 117.9 passer rating through 12 weeks is the best in the NFL the past five years, and his EPA per dropback rate of 0.32 is the third best at this point since 2019. No. 1 on that list? Jackson in 2019 (0.37). He would be a landslide pick for MVP if not for Josh Allen, but wait … here comes Saquon Barkley. Barkley is down to 4-to-1 after running for 255 yards last week (Allen is 1.5-to-1 and Jackson 2.5-to-1) and faces a Ravens team that is much better against the run than pass. Luckily for the Eagles, Barkley has 99 yards receiving in the last two weeks. Jalen Hurts has been more of a game manager the last five games (all wins) with six touchdowns and one interception, and this should be the week he lets loose and hits A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert and Barkley for touchdowns against a bad Ravens secondary and linebacker group. He might even overshadow Jackson and Barkley.

The pick: Eagles 

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Brock Purdy was limited at practice Wednesday trying to come back from his shoulder injury, and it’s hard to see the slumping 49ers putting up much of a fight here without him. The 49ers have dealt with a lot of injuries and especially miss Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel Sr. Wait … Samuel is playing? (Checks stats.) Oh yeah, Samuel ranks 54th among 56 qualified WRs in the past four weeks with a -0.26 EPA per target rate. Maybe the holder and kicker should get in his face. Christian McCaffrey is still rounding back into shape, and running into a Bills defense not worried about the pass in a snowstorm doesn’t sound like a fun Sunday night. Josh Allen and James Cook will fare better for the Bills going against a 49ers defense that will likely be without Nick Bosa again. And what happened to Fred Warner? It’s hard to lay points in a snowstorm, but the Niners may be close to calling it a season at this point.

The pick: Bills 

Rolling with Bo Nix last week was fun. As was Jameis Winston. Now, what do I do? The Browns are coming off an emotional win over the Steelers, and the last time they had a big win (over the Steelers) they laid an egg against the Saints. Winston, for all of his clutch throws, is a gambler and will give the ball to the other team. That means the Browns defense has to make repeated stands and luckily they have three players ranked in the top seven in pass pressure percentage the last four weeks: No. 2 Dalvin Tomlinson (20.3), No. 4 Myles Garrett (20.3, with six sacks) and No. 7 Isaiah McGuire (19.5). As I am now riding comfortably on the Nix bandwagon, I do think he should be able to handle the pressure. He can run, and among the many things he has gotten better at is relying on Courtland Sutton to win his matchup and just put the ball up in his vicinity. That should work this week against an undersized Browns secondary. I wish I had more faith in the Broncos run game and I wish this spread wasn’t so big, but I don’t and it is. Take the points.

The pick: Browns 

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Best bets: It might just be projecting to a glorious tryptophan-induced state where I am nodding off and back in to winners on Thursday, but I have the Lions, Giants and Packers beating the Bears, Cowboys and Dolphins, respectively, by sufficient margins. And then, I took a home underdog (the Panthers over the Buccaneers) and a home bully (the rested Bills over the 49ers).

Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): We had Jameis Winston in this spot last week over the Steelers, and we’ll take the Browns (plus-5.5, plus-200 on the moneyline) again (over the Broncos). Mostly because we don’t want to put two eggs in Bryce Young’s basket.

— TruMedia research courtesy of The Athletic’s Larry Holder. 

(Top photo of Tua Tagovailoa: Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images)