NFL Week 13 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips
Titans storyline to watch: Titans quarterback Will Levis has a 68% completion percentage with 748 passing yards and five touchdown passes over the past three games. The second-year quarterback has also rediscovered his big-play ability, with eight explosive pass plays (at least 20 yards) over that span. He will look to maintain his steady improvement this week against Washington’s pass defense, which has allowed 189.1 passing yards per game (fourth best). — Turron Davenport
Commanders storyline to watch: The Commanders’ offense has sputtered the past two weeks despite a wild finish against Dallas (they averaged 3.9 yards per play until late in the game). During their three-game losing streak, they averaged 99.3 yards rushing and 4.0 yards per carry; Washington averaged 163.9 yards rushing per game and 5.0 yards per carry in going 7-2. Meanwhile, Tennessee has allowed just 3.0 yards per rush in its past three games (and 4.0 for the season). Maybe Washington can attack through the air, as the Titans have allowed 7.9 yards per pass attempt since Week 10. — John Keim
Stat to know: Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley is third in the NFL with 451 receiving yards since Week 8. He’s behind Courtland Sutton (467) and Puka Nacua (455).
Bold prediction: Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels will rebound with a 70-plus QBR game. He was just too good early in the season for me to ignore it, and the Titans’ defense is just OK. Tennessee ranks in the middle of the road in EPA allowed per dropback this year and is below average since Week 7. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Titans running back Tony Pollard. He’s on pace for his third straight 1,000-yard rushing season and has been outstanding for Tennessee, especially since its bye week. He has logged 18 or more touches in five of his past seven games, scoring 10-plus fantasy points in five of them, including three games with 18 or more points. The Commanders’ defense has allowed 22.2 fantasy points per game to running backs this season, giving Pollard a high floor and strong potential for another big day. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Titans are a league-worst 2-9 ATS. Last week’s win snapped a six-game ATS losing streak. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Commanders, 30, Titans 21
Moody’s pick: Commanders 28, Titans 20
Walder’s pick: Commanders 28, Titans 19
FPI prediction: WSH, 66.3% (by an average of 6.2 points)
Texans storyline to watch: The Texans have won 11 out of their past 13 games against the Jaguars. They defeated Jacksonville 24-20 in Week 4, with quarterback C.J. Stroud throwing for 345 yards with two touchdowns. In his three career games against the Jaguars, Stroud has thrown for 929 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions. — DJ Bien-Aime
Jaguars storyline to watch: The Jaguars have scored fewer than 10 points in back-to-back games with backup quarterback Mac Jones, but there are encouraging signs that point to Trevor Lawrence (left shoulder) returning against the Texans. That should energize the offense and help the Jaguars avoid a dubious piece of franchise history: Failing to score double-digit points in three consecutive games. — Mike DiRocco
Stat to know: The Jaguars are 1-6 in one-score games (eight points or fewer), which is tied with the Bengals for the most such losses in the NFL.
Bold prediction: Texans edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter will again combine for at least 3.0 sacks. Last week, they combined for 5.0 sacks and Hunter finished second in pass rush win rate (31.6%) at edge. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Texans wide receiver Tank Dell. He had seven or more targets and scored 10 or more fantasy points in three of his past four games. Dell has a fantastic matchup against a Jaguars defense that gives up the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Nico Collins should draw plenty of defensive attention, which could open things up even more for Dell. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their past five games and 3-0 ATS in their past three home games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Texans 28, Jaguars 20
Moody’s pick: Texans 27, Jaguars 24
Walder’s pick: Texans 30, Jaguars 13
FPI prediction: HOU, 64.4% (by an average of 5.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Stroud after Texans’ latest loss: Not playing up to standard … Jaguars’ offense still looking for answers amid 17-game skid
4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: LAR -2.5 (49.5 O/U)
Rams storyline to watch: Through 12 weeks, Rams outside linebacker Jared Verse leads the rookie class with 51 pressures. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he has taken 66.3% of his snaps from the right edge, which projects a matchup against the Saints’ Taliese Fuaga. The Saints left tackle is having the opposite start to Verse, with the lowest pressure rate allowed by any rookie this season (7.4%). — Sarah Barshop
Saints storyline to watch: The Saints are getting healthy again after their bye — defensive end Tanoh Kpassagnon returned to practice for the first time this season after tearing his Achilles in the offseason. The biggest health question now is center Erik McCoy, who left their last game with a groin injury after playing for the first time since surgery in September. Saints coach Darren Rizzi said McCoy is considered day-by-day to play at this point. — Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: The Rams’ Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are the only wide receiver teammates to have 400 receiving yards each game since Week 8, when they both returned to the lineup after injuries.
Bold prediction: Saints cornerback Alontae Taylor will allow more than 100 receiving yards as the nearest defender. He is allowing a massive 2.1 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and he’ll likely struggle against the Rams’ top receivers. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: The Saints have been relying heavily on running back Alvin Kamara, who is averaging 21.6 touches and 111.4 total yards per game. Kamara is set up for another busy day against the Rams. Los Angeles has struggled against running backs, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards and 11th-most receiving yards per game. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Rams are 5-1 ATS as road favorites since 2022. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Saints 21, Rams 18
Moody’s pick: Saints 24, Rams 20
Walder’s pick: Rams 24, Saints 16
FPI prediction: NO, 51.6% (by an average of 0.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Rams aren’t playing like a top contender in the NFC … Saints’ Hill has milestone day with 230 all-purpose yards
4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: TB -5.5 (46.5 O/U)
Buccaneers storyline to watch: The Bucs snapped a four-game losing streak with a post-bye-week win over the Giants to gain ground in their playoff push. Wide receiver Mike Evans‘ and cornerback Jamel Dean‘s returns were impactful, as was the presence of safety Mike Edwards. And of course, quarterback Baker Mayfield continues to have possibly the best season of his career. But their biggest advantage Sunday will be the ground game. The Panthers’ defense allows a league-worst 160.6 rushing yards per game, while the Bucs’ 128.1 rushing yards per game is 10th in the league after they ranked last in 2023. — Jenna Laine
Panthers storyline to watch: Quarterback Bryce Young is coming off his best game and a three-game streak of solid play where the Panthers are 2-1. The defense is improving, collecting a season-high five sacks against the Chiefs on Sunday. However, Carolina still struggles to keep teams out of the end zone, allowing an NFL-worst 30.9 points a game. And the Buccaneers can be explosive, as they rank seventh in passing yards per game (241.5). Carolina’s secondary remains vulnerable. — David Newton
Stat to know: Against the Giants, the Buccaneers had four players score a rushing touchdown for the first time in franchise history.
Bold prediction: The Panthers will record their highest pass block win rate of the season. After winning a season-high 61.5% of pass blocks last week, I think they can set a better mark against a Buccaneers team that doesn’t scare you too much with its pass rush. — Walder
Injuries: Buccaneers | Panthers
Fantasy X factor: Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton. Tampa Bay’s running game led the way in its Week 12 win, but Otton should stay heavily involved in the passing game behind Evans. Before their Week 11 bye, Otton scored 18 or more fantasy points in three of his past four games. Now, he gets a Panthers defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to tight ends. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Panthers have covered three straight home games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Buccaneers 35, Panthers 28
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 31, Panthers 20
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 20
FPI prediction: TB, 68.7% (by an average of 7.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bucs came back ‘mentally tougher,’ ‘ready to play’ after bye … Panthers coach: Young will ‘absolutely’ start vs. Bucs
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BAL -3 (51.5 O/U)
Eagles storyline to watch: Running back Saquon Barkley has been on a tear. He’s coming off a career-best performance in which he set single-game career highs in rushing yards (255) and yards from scrimmage (302) against the Rams. With the performance, Barkley (1,392 rushing yards) took the lead over Derrick Henry (1,325) in the race for the rushing crown. This will be a smash-mouth matchup featuring the top two ground games in the NFL. — Tim McManus
Ravens storyline to watch: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has a 23-1 record against NFC opponents, which is the best by any quarterback in interconference games since the 1970 merger (minimum 15 starts). But he is facing perhaps his biggest challenge with the Eagles, who have won seven straight games. During its win streak, Philadelphia has held quarterbacks to 140.2 passing yards per game and 5.4 yards per pass attempt, both of which are the fewest in the NFL over that span. — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: This will be just the second instance since 1970 of two teams meeting in Week 13 or later who are averaging 180 rushing yards per game.
Bold prediction: The Eagles will hold Jackson to a QBR of under 55. Even if cornerback Darius Slay Jr. (concussion) isn’t able to play, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean should be able to hamper receivers Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert finished with only 5.9 fantasy points last week, as the Eagles didn’t need to pass thanks to Barkley’s 46.2-point performance. That should change against the Ravens in a high-scoring matchup. Baltimore’s defense allows the fourth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Ravens overs are 10-2, the highest over percentage in the NFL. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Eagles 30, Ravens 28
Moody’s pick: Eagles 27, Ravens 26
Walder’s pick: Eagles 28, Ravens 24
FPI prediction: BAL, 58.4% (by an average of 2.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Barkley runs for Eagles-record 255 yards in win vs. Rams … Ravens topple Chargers in Harbaugh brothers reunion
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: BUF -7 (44.5 O/U)
49ers storyline to watch: The 49ers haven’t lost three games in a row all season, but they enter this one in peril of doing just that and essentially putting any postseason hopes to rest. The Bills can clinch the AFC East with a win, and they’ve won all five home games this season while scoring 30-plus points in each contest. San Francisco is still banged up and will be traveling across the country after another lengthy flight to Green Bay last week, making this perhaps its most difficult challenge. — Nick Wagoner
Bills storyline to watch: Bills quarterback Josh Allen — a Firebaugh, California, native — will play the team he grew up cheering for. He will have a chance to continue to improve his candidacy for MVP in prime time against a 49ers defense that has forced only one turnover in the past three games and is tied for 20th in points allowed per game (23.6). — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The 49ers had 18 penalties in their past two games (both losses), which is tied for their most penalties in a two-game span over the past five seasons.
Bold prediction: The Bills will hold running back Christian McCaffrey to fewer than four receptions. No team allows a lower percentage of targets (25%) to opposing running backs than the Bills. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Bills running back James Cook. Buffalo should rely heavily on its offensive line and running game due to potentially snowy weather, which bodes well for Cook. He scored 15 or more fantasy points in three of their past four games and had 15 or more touches in three of those matchups. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: This is the second straight game the 49ers have been underdogs after being favored in 36 straight regular-season games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bills 34, 49ers 21
Moody’s pick: Bills 30, 49ers 23
Walder’s pick: Bills 27, 49ers 26
FPI prediction: BUF, 61.3% (by an average of 4.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: The 49ers’ road to the playoffs is murky: Is Sunday a must-win? … Bills’ quest for AFC East crown, No. 1 seed continues
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | ESPN BET: DEN -5.5 (41.5 O/U)
Browns storyline to watch: Wide receiver Jerry Jeudy returns to face the Broncos, who drafted him No. 15 overall in the 2020 draft, for the first time since Denver traded him to Cleveland in March after four inconsistent seasons. It was a trade Jeudy told ESPN he desired, and he has flourished over the past month, ranking 10th in receiving yards (379) since Week 8. However, Jeudy has a tough test against Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II, who has allowed 182 yards as the nearest defender, the second-fewest among cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps. — Daniel Oyefusi
Broncos storyline to watch: Broncos coach Sean Payton will have to scheme to protect rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is 18-7-1 against rookie QBs as a coordinator or head coach. His defense is fifth in the league in dropbacks that result in sacks at 8.8%. Payton has tried to up the tempo to halt opposing rushers, but he might have to run the ball more to give the Cleveland defensive front a reason to slow down on its way to the quarterback. In the win over Las Vegas last week, when the Raiders blitzed more than Payton expected, the Broncos ran just 16 times. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Browns have an NFL-worst 27% third-down conversion rate, which is their worst through 11 games since 1999 (25%).
Bold prediction: The Broncos will sack Jameis Winston six or more times. Winston’s 7% sack rate isn’t too bad, but the Broncos have the third-best pass rush win rate (47.6%) in the NFL, with defensive end Zach Allen leading the way. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Nix. The rookie is shining under coach Payton’s guidance, and it shows. Nix has scored 19 or more fantasy points in five of his past eight games, including two games with more than 28 points. This week, he faces a Browns defense that has given up the 12th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. That’s great news for Nix and his top target, Courtland Sutton. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Browns are 2-7 ATS in their past nine “Monday Night Football” games (1-3 ATS under coach Kevin Stefanski). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Broncos 28, Browns 24
Moody’s pick: Broncos 21, Browns 16
Walder’s pick: Broncos 23, Browns 17
FPI prediction: DEN, 51.8% (by an average of 0.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Breaking down the 2024 Browns roster … Sutton, Nix growing together for surging Broncos
Friday’s matchup
Friday, 3 p.m. ET | Prime Video | ESPN BET: KC -12 (42.5 O/U)
Note: The Chiefs won 19-17.
Raiders storyline to watch: Quarterback Aidan O’Connell, coming off injured reserve after suffering a broken thumb on his throwing (right) hand in Week 7, will start against the Chiefs. “It’s felt pretty good the last few days throwing … to be able to go out there and grip the football and throw a little bit has been awesome,” he said Tuesday. O’Connell is the last quarterback to beat the Chiefs in Kansas City, even though he didn’t complete a pass after the first quarter of that 2023 Christmas Day game. — Paul Gutierrez
Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs have faltered defensively after a strong start this season. Since Week 8, they rank last in opponent QBR (81.6) and preventing third-down conversions (58.6%). Are the Raiders strong enough offensively to take advantage without starting quarterback Gardner Minshew, who is out with a broken collarbone? The last time the Raiders lost by only one score was a 27-20 game against the Chiefs in Week 8. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: The Chiefs have a 58% chance to be the top seed in the AFC, per ESPN Analytics. Their chances would improve to 64% with a win and fall to 38% with a loss.
Bold prediction: Raiders tight end Brock Bowers will record 100-plus receiving yards. Bowers is in the mix for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, and 21% of Kansas City opponents’ targets go to tight ends, the third-highest rate in the league. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He scored 28.7 fantasy points against the Panthers last week, his best performance of the season. He put up 18.1 fantasy points the last time he faced Las Vegas on the road. At home, he has averaged 22.8 fantasy points per game against the Raiders as a starter. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 0-5 against the spread in their past five games, tied for their longest ATS losing streak in the coach Andy Reid era. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Chiefs 24, Raiders 17
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 34, Raiders 13
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 23, Raiders 20
FPI prediction: KC, 76.3% (by an average of 11.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: What are the Raiders’ chances at the No. 1 draft pick? … Chiefs want to keep things simple for new LT Humphries
Source link
