NFL Week 15 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips
Storyline to watch: Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray hasn’t played the 49ers since October 2021, a stretch of four games and more than two years, because of injuries. The last time he lined up against San Francisco, he won. Murray is 2-2 since he returned from an ACL injury and refreshed coming off the bye. The Niners don’t have any fresh tape of facing Murray, including tape of Murray in the Cardinals’ new scheme. With the Niners potentially down some players on defense, especially in their front seven, Murray might have an opportunity to upset a potential Super Bowl team. — Josh Weinfuss
Bold prediction: Niners quarterback Brock Purdy will pass for more than 300 yards and three touchdowns for the third time this season. Purdy was nearly perfect in the first meeting between these teams, throwing for 283 yards and a touchdown with just one incompletion. Given the state of Arizona’s secondary, the Cardinals’ inability to generate pass rush (they have the fourth-lowest pressure rate in the NFL) and the Niners’ injuries on defense, this has the makings of a high-scoring game that allows Purdy to continue adding the counting stats that have him squarely in the NFL MVP conversation. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: Purdy has won his first six division games; that’s tied for the fourth-longest streak to begin a player’s career since the 1970 merger. Should he win Sunday in Arizona, he can tie Ben Roethlisberger for the third-longest streak.
Matchup X factor: Murray. Yes, he has delivered two wins in four games, but he has just a 50.0 QBR and a negative-5% completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He’s allowed some time to shake off the rust, but Murray should be better than those numbers suggest. — Walder
What’s at stake: Two very different ends of the spectrum here. We start with the 49ers, who would love a win to push them to a 63% chance to earn a first-round bye (25% in a loss). And the Cardinals could keep their No. 1 pick dreams alive if they do lose (2%). Read more.
What to know for fantasy: Niners running back Christian McCaffrey has averaged 21.4 touches and 24 fantasy points. Against a Cardinals defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs, McCaffrey could provide a matchup-winning performance. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Moody’s pick: 49ers 31, Cardinals 16
Walder’s pick: 49ers 27, Cardinals 17
FPI prediction: SF, 85.1% (by an average of 13.8 points)
Storyline to watch: This is a big game for both teams given the playoff implications involved. But this game could very well come down to which defense dealing with injuries can make more stops against offenses with the potential to put up big points. The Cowboys’ offense leads the NFL in points per game (32.4), while the Bills are fifth (26.8). — Alaina Getzenberg
Bold prediction: Bills quarterback Josh Allen will lead the Bills in rushing against the Cowboys and push for 100 yards. The Cowboys are one of seven teams not to allow a 100-yard rusher this season, but they have had issues with quarterbacks. Five times quarterbacks have had more than 30 yards rushing vs. Dallas, including 55 from Joshua Dobbs in a Week 3 loss to Arizona. Without nose tackle Johnathan Hankins, the Cowboys’ run defense has a hole to fill, and Allen will take advantage. — Todd Archer
Stat to know: Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has multiple passing touchdowns in seven straight games, tied with Tony Romo for the second-longest streak in Cowboys history (Don Meredith had 12 straight from 1965 to ’66).
Matchup X factor: Cowboys defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa. Quietly, he’s having a huge season as a pass-rusher. He has just three sacks, but his 20% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle puts him second at the position, behind only Aaron Donald. — Walder
What’s at stake: Big one here. In Dallas, a win would mean it has a 44% chance to take the NFC East and a 19% chance to finish with the No. 1 seed. A loss? Those numbers would be 20% and 3%, respectively. And the Bills could be chasing not only the playoffs (66% with a win, 30% with a loss) but also a division title (34% with a win, 13% with a loss). Read more.
What to know for fantasy: The Cowboys’ secondary has allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game to opponents. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bills are 2-7 ATS in their past nine games. Unders are 5-1 in the Bills’ past six games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Cowboys 28, Bills 25
Walder’s pick: Bills 27, Cowboys 23
FPI prediction: DAL, 50.3% (by an average of 0.2 points)
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: BAL -3 (42.5)
Storyline to watch: One week after facing the top-ranked defense (Cleveland), the Jaguars get the No. 2 defense with the Ravens. Baltimore leads the league in sacks (49), which is not good for a Jaguars offensive line on its fourth left tackle and third left guard because of injuries. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been sacked 31 times this season, which is one shy of his career high set in 2021. — Mike DiRocco
Bold prediction: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson will throw for more than 300 yards in back-to-back games for the second time in his career. Jackson ranks 16th in the NFL with 225.7 yards passing per game, but he threw for 316 yards against the Rams on Sunday. The Jaguars have allowed 265.2 passing yards per game, second worst in the NFL, and have given up 300 yards through the air in each of their past three games to C.J. Stroud, Jake Browning and Joe Flacco. — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. has been held under 100 rushing yards in eight consecutive games, the longest streak in his career. He needs one rushing touchdown to be the first Jaguars player with 10 rushing touchdowns in a season since Maurice Jones-Drew in 2009 (15).
Matchup X factor: Ravens pass-rushers Jadeveon Clowney, Odafe Oweh and Justin Madubuike. The Jaguars have the 30th-ranked pass block win rate (48.3%) in the NFL, and Baltimore’s defense, with all of its simulated pressures, should be able to take advantage. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Ravens’ odds in the AFC North swing between 80% (loss) and 94% (win) on Sunday, but they will also be interested in the conference seeding. A victory means 68% odds at the top seed and a bye, whereas a loss slips them to 30%. The Jaguars look good to take the AFC South if they can get a win (95%, as opposed to 79% in a loss), but their No. 1 seed hopes would still be just 13% even if they come out of Sunday victorious. Read more.
What to know for fantasy: For fantasy managers, Zay Flowers is trending up at the perfect time. In two consecutive games, the Ravens receiver has had eight or more targets and scored 20 or more fantasy points. In the past four weeks, the Jaguars’ defense has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Also, Jacksonville’s defense gives up the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, which bodes well for Jackson. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jaguars are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Ravens 25, Jaguars 24
Walder’s pick: Ravens 28, Jaguars 17
FPI prediction: BAL, 63.8% (by an average of 4.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Ravens signing Cunningham, reuniting him with Jackson … Ex-Jaguars employee pleads guilty to charges over team theft … Ravens’ Jackson spurs Super Bowl aspirations
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: PHI -3.5 (47.5)
Storyline to watch: It’s a matchup of two of the leading candidates for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Seahawks cornerback Devon Witherspoon, the fifth overall pick, has 3.0 sacks, 16 passes defensed and a 97-yard pick-six on his résumé. Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter, chosen four spots after Witherspoon, has 4.0 sacks, six tackles for loss and the fourth-best pass rush win rate among interior defenders. With a national audience watching Monday night, this game could go a long way in determining the DROY winner. — Brady Henderson
Bold prediction: Seattle rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba will set a career high in receiving yards. The Eagles’ pass defense, ranked 28th in the NFL, is particularly vulnerable over the middle. Smith-Njigba lines up in the slot on 67% of his snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and has a good shot at generating an explosive play or two and surpassing his previous high of 63 yards. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: The Seahawks are 13-4 (.765) on “Monday Night Football” under coach Pete Carroll. Only the Steelers have a better winning percentage on MNF since 2010 (.833, 15-3 record).
Matchup X factor: Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett. He’s having a down year with just 1.7 yards per route run — he was at 2.1 and 2.5 in 2022 and 2021, respectively — and Seattle is going to need his incredible deep-ball ability to pull off this upset. — Walder
What’s at stake: Philly is suddenly fending off Dallas in the NFC East, though a win would help its case there. The Eagles would be 81% to win the division if they win on the road Monday, while a loss would make it a 50-50 endeavor. (Top seed implications here are Philadelphia either being at 44% in a win or 10% in a loss.) And then there are the Seahawks amid a tough stretch in their schedule. Seattle’s playoff chances would be steady at 46% if it wins but just 11% if it drops another game. Read more.
What to know for fantasy: Seattle running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet have a difficult matchup against an Eagles defense that allows the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. The Seahawks are more likely to lean on the passing game against Philadelphia. The Eagles’ defense gives up the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Five straight Eagles games following a loss have gone under the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Eagles 31, Seahawks 21
Walder’s pick: Eagles 28, Seahawks 20
FPI prediction: PHI, 57.6% (by an average of 2.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: What the Eagles need to fix to win the No. 1 seed … Seahawks expect Witherspoon back for MNF … How Philadelphia, San Francisco or Dallas could take the top NFC spot … Injured Seahawks QB Smith ‘feels really good,’ Carroll says
Previews for Saturday’s games
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET | NFL Network | Spread: CIN -3 (40.5)
Storyline to watch: Quarterback Jake Browning and the Bengals’ offense — coming off back-to-back wins — will have to contend with one of the best defenses in the league in this weekend’s matchup. Over the past eight weeks, the Vikings lead the NFL in fewest points allowed per drive (1.4) and fewest points allowed per game (15.3), largely because of a very strong red zone defense. — Ben Baby
Bold prediction: Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson will catch at least eight passes. The Bengals’ defense has allowed more receptions (88) and yards (935) to opposing tight ends than any other team, and Hockenson leads the NFL in catches by tight ends (85) and is second in yards (839). Some of that production has been the result of receiver Justin Jefferson‘s injuries, but even with Jefferson back on the field in Cincinnati, quarterback Nick Mullens will still consider Hockenson a primary target. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: The Bengals are 4-0 against NFC teams this season and have won eight straight against the conference, which is tied with Ravens for the longest active win streak against nonconference opponents and tied for the longest streak in franchise history (also eight straight from 2004 to ’05).
Matchup X factor: Vikings linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. The undrafted rookie has played 100% of the Vikings’ defensive snaps over Minnesota’s past three games and is delivering. He ranks seventh in run stop win rate (39.9%) this season among linebackers and has 2.5 sacks, an interception and a forced fumble. — Walder
What’s at stake: In one of the biggest games of the week in terms of playoff swings, the Bengals can improve to a 35% chance to make the playoffs if they win — but a loss shrinks their odds to 10%. The Vikings, meanwhile, are chasing an NFC wild-card spot and are still alive in the NFC North race. They would have a 79% chance to make the playoffs and 21% chance to take the division with a win, but those numbers fall to 51% and 8%, respectively, if they lose. Read more.
What to know for fantasy: Fantasy managers should have confidence in Hockenson this week. There’s no defense in the league that gives up more fantasy points to tight ends than the Bengals. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Vikings are 4-0 against the spread (ATS) in their past four games as an underdog. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bengals 23, Vikings 15
Walder’s pick: Bengals 24, Vikings 17
FPI prediction: CIN, 56.5% (by an average of 2.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Mullens makes history for Vikings with eye on postseason … More balance has led to Bengals’ Burrow-less offensive resurgence … Chase says he’s ‘100%’ playing on Saturday
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | NFL Network | Spread: IND -1.5 (42.5)
Storyline to watch: The Steelers have won eight consecutive games against the Colts including regular-season and postseason games. It’s a remarkable streak that began in 2011, with the Colts’ last win coming in 2008 with quarterback Peyton Manning under center. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin, who was hired in 2007, is 8-1 against Indianapolis and has never lost at Lucas Oil Stadium. — Stephen Holder
Bold prediction: Colts rookie tight end Will Mallory will score his first NFL touchdown. Mallory, who sees the fewest snaps of the Colts’ four tight ends, had a career-high five receptions against the Bengals last week. In their past two losses, the Steelers’ defense gave up three touchdowns to tight ends as New England and Arizona took advantage of mismatches in the secondary and the Steelers’ depleted inside linebacker corps. Though the Colts’ tight ends haven’t been consistent, the position group combined for eight catches, 65 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals — a defense the Steelers exploited earlier this season with a career day by TE Pat Freiermuth. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: Colts receiver Michael Pittman Jr. has 982 receiving yards. With 18 more yards, he would be the fourth Colts player with multiple seasons with 1,000 yards receiving, joining Reggie Wayne (eight), Marvin Harrison (eight) and T.Y. Hilton (five).
Matchup X factor: Colts edge rusher Kwity Paye. Since Week 10, Paye ranks second in pass rush win rate at edge (28.0%), behind only Micah Parsons (43.2%). In that same span, Steelers OT Broderick Jones ranks 50th of 67 tackles in pass block win rate (85.4%). — Walder
What’s at stake: This one is huge for the AFC wild-card race. Indy can improves its odds to 64% in a win, but losing to Pittsburgh drops that to 22%. And the Steelers would be at 48% if they get back on track this week, but another loss dims their playoff light to 10%. Read more.
What to know for fantasy: The Colts give up the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs. In consecutive games, Najee Harris has had 15 touches, while Jaylen Warren has had 10 or more. Both players are projected to score 11 or more fantasy points and can be relied upon in lineups. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Five of six Colts home games have gone over the total this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Colts 24, Steelers 17
Walder’s pick: Steelers 23, Colts 22
FPI prediction: PIT, 55.8% (by an average of 2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Roethlisberger says Steelers tradition might be done … Colts missing Taylor as run game struggles … Watt out of protocol, cleared to play vs. Colts
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET | NFL Network | Spread: DET -4 (47.5)
Storyline to watch: The Lions have lost two of their past three games, while the Broncos have won six of their past seven and are looking to climb the AFC West ladder. It will also be a reunion for Lions coach Dan Campbell and his mentor Sean Payton, now the coach of the Broncos. Campbell spent five seasons on Payton’s staff as an assistant head coach/tight ends coach from 2016 to ’20 and also played on teams Payton coached. “I’ve got a tremendous amount of respect for Sean and everything about him,” Campbell said during Thursday’s practice. “And probably the greatest compliment I can give to him is that he believed in me always and he gave me that shot as a player and a coach.” — Eric Woodyard
Bold prediction: The Broncos’ defense, with 20 sacks and 18 takeaways over the past seven games, will sack Lions quarterback Jared Goff at least four times and intercept him at least once. Only two teams have sacked Goff at least four times and had at least one interception in the same game this season — Baltimore (Oct. 22) and Chicago last week. Those also happen to be the two lowest-scoring games of the Lions’ season. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: Broncos receiver Courtland Sutton has had a touchdown reception in all six road games. He can become the fifth player in NFL history with a receiving touchdown in his team’s first seven road games of a season.
Matchup X factor: Goff. Since Week 11, he ranks 22nd in QBR (40.8), 17th in completion percentage over expectation (minus-2.2%) and 27th in off-target rate (17.4%). Detroit needs to get its offense on track again before the playoffs. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Lions can take another step toward the NFC North title if they win Saturday night (90% in a win, 74% in a loss). And the Broncos could make some AFC wild-card noise if they get the victory — their playoff odds would jump to 65%, while a loss puts them at 31%. And yes, Denver is still alive in the AFC West, but it likely needs a win to keep that going (13% in that scenario). Read more.
What to know for fantasy: Russell Wilson and his receivers have an advantage. Detroit’s defense has given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and the ninth most to wide receivers. Fantasy managers will want Wilson and Sutton, who has scored touchdowns in 10 of 13 games, in lineups. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Lions are 31-16 ATS under Campbell, the second-best ATS record since 2021 (behind only the Cowboys). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Lions 29, Broncos 26
Walder’s pick: Lions 24, Broncos 20
FPI prediction: DET, 59.3% (by an average of 3.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: How Denver’s defense turned disaster into dominance … Gardner-Johnson (torn pectoral) cleared to return … Lions suddenly looking vulnerable after hot start
Source link
