NFL Week 17 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips
Packers storyline to watch: Quarterback Jordan Love struggled against the blitz in the first seven games of the season, which included the Packers’ Week 4 loss to the Vikings, posting the third-worst QBR when blitzed during that span. In the six games since, he has a QBR of 97 against the blitz, which leads the NFL in that category. The Vikings have the highest blitz rate in the NFL at 38%. — Rob Demovsky
Vikings storyline to watch: Sam Darnold is looking to become the first quarterback in NFL history to win 14 games in his first season with a new team. If that happens, and the Vikings sweep the Packers for only the fourth time in the past 25 seasons, they’ll keep themselves on track for a huge Week 18 game at Detroit that could determine the No. 1 seed in the NFC. After struggling through a spate of midseason turnovers, Darnold has thrown 15 touchdown passes with one interception over his past six games. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: The Packers are 1-3 in NFC North games this season. A loss would clinch their fourth season under .500 in divisional matchups since 2002 and their first since 2018. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Vikings edge Jonathan Greenard will record at least 1.5 sacks. Over the past three weeks, Greenard’s 29% pass rush win rate at edge leads the league. — Walder
What’s at stake: Both teams are in the playoffs, but the Vikings can improve their chances at the NFC North title Sunday. Their odds increase to 36% with a win and fall to 14% with a loss, per ESPN Analytics. Minnesota can win the North either by winning out or by the Lions losing out. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X factor: Vikings running back Aaron Jones. He has had a solid first season with Minnesota, averaging 18.3 touches and 14.5 fantasy points per game. Now, he has another chance against his former team at home after scoring 17.9 fantasy points at Green Bay in Week 4. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Packers have covered four straight games, while the Vikings have covered three straight. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Packers 30, Vikings 27
Moody’s pick: Vikings 23, Packers 20
Walder’s pick: Packers 20, Vikings 17
FPI prediction: GB, 54.8% (by an average of 2.3 points)
Falcons storyline to watch: Running back Bijan Robinson‘s impressive season has gone somewhat under the radar, and Atlanta will need a big game from him against the Commanders. Robinson has the third-most yards in the league running outside the tackles (885 yards with nine touchdowns), while Washington has allowed the second-most yards per carry (5.7) on such runs. — Marc Raimondi
Commanders storyline to watch: If Washington wants to win and secure its spot in the playoffs, it will want to get its running backs going. The Commanders have averaged 2.64 yards per carry the past two weeks and will face an Atlanta defense that ranks ninth in yards per carry allowed (4.3). — John Keim
Stat to know: Michael Penix Jr. is seeking to become the first quarterback in Falcons history to win his first two career starts. He won against the Giants without a passing or rushing touchdown, and a quarterback hasn’t done that in his first two career starts since the Dolphins’ Damon Huard in 1999. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Falcons wide receiver Drake London will record his second game with 100-plus receiving yards of the season. London enters Week 17 with an 80 open score, which is tied for ninth among all eligible receivers. — Walder
What’s at stake: Both teams’ chances at the postseason could be affected by the Buccaneers this weekend. The Falcons can clinch the NFC South title and their first playoff berth since 2017 with a win and a Tampa Bay loss to Carolina. The Commanders can secure their first playoff appearance since 2020 with a win or a Bucs loss. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X factor: Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin. The Falcons’ defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and it has really struggled against perimeter receivers. McLaurin has been on fire lately, scoring 17 or more fantasy points in four straight games. Given the matchup, he has a real shot at being the top fantasy receiver this week. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Four straight Commanders home games have gone over the total. Six of the past seven Falcons games have gone under the total. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Commanders 30, Falcons 28
Moody’s pick: Commanders 27, Falcons 23
Walder’s pick: Commanders 27, Falcons 23
FPI prediction: WSH, 60.5% (by an average of 3.9 points)
8:15 p.m. ET, Monday | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: DET -3.5 (50.5 O/U)
Lions storyline to watch: In a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game, receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is looking for revenge after Detroit blew a 17-point halftime lead and missed its first Super Bowl appearance. He described it as being “like a horror movie” and one of the worst losses of his entire life. “I feel like each player that was here last year knows the feeling that we had last year and we want to go in there and hopefully come out with a W,” St. Brown said. — Eric Woodyard
49ers storyline to watch: Much has changed for the 49ers since these teams last met. The Lions have continued to ascend, while the Niners have taken a significant step back. Since 2000, this will be the ninth time the teams that met in a conference championship game will play again the following season. The home team won seven of the eight previous times. But with Detroit still fighting for the top seed and carrying a perfect road record, the 49ers will need a big turnaround to pull this off. One place they could start? Generating turnovers. They have just one takeaway in their past five games (tied for second fewest in that span). — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: The Lions are 7-0 on the road, which is their longest road win streak in franchise history. They’ve lost 14 consecutive road games to the 49ers, though, including the playoffs. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings will record at least six receptions. Thirty percent of Lions’ opponent dropbacks result in a target to a slot receiver, which is the second-highest rate in the league, per NFL Next Gen Stats. No one has played more snaps from the slot for San Francisco this season than Jennings. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Lions can clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage for the playoffs with a win and a Vikings loss to the Packers on Sunday. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X factor: 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. He bounced back in Week 16 with 21.1 fantasy points, which helped erase the sting of his rough 3.9-point outing against the Rams in Week 15. He’s in a great spot this week, facing a Lions defense that has given up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Lions are 9-2 outright and 8-3 ATS in prime-time games under coach Dan Campbell. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Lions 40, 49ers 24
Moody’s pick: Lions 31, 49ers 24
Walder’s pick: Lions 31, 49ers 20
FPI prediction: DET, 61.8% (by an average of 4.5 points)
Saturday’s games
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET | NFL Network | ESPN BET: LAC -4.5 (42.5 O/U)
Note: L.A. won 40-7.
Chargers storyline to watch: The Patriots’ defense could make it difficult for the Chargers to punch their ticket to the playoffs. Quarterback Justin Herbert ranks 29th of 33 qualifying QBs in QBR (46.8) against man coverage this season. The Patriots’ defense uses man coverage at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL (51.8%). If Herbert does find success against New England and throws for 153 or more passing yards, he’ll pass Peyton Manning for the most passing yards in a quarterback’s first five seasons in NFL history (20,618). — Kris Rhim
Patriots storyline to watch: Coach Jerod Mayo says the Patriots have had conversations about the role of playoff spoiler against the Chargers. “It just goes back to whoever’s playing the best that day. What you did last week, or the week before, really doesn’t matter, and that’s the beauty about this game,” he said. One potential concern for New England is at center, where starter Ben Brown is in concussion protocol. That could open the door for Cole Strange to make his first start at the position after opening his career at left guard. — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: With a loss, the Patriots will clinch a sub-.300 win percentage in consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Chargers safety Derwin James Jr. will record an interception. The three Patriots players with the highest target rates are slot receiver DeMario Douglas, tight end Hunter Henry and tight end Austin Hooper. Quarterback Drake Maye will need to send some balls in James’ direction. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Chargers can punch their ticket to the playoffs with a win over the Patriots. They can also make the postseason if the Colts and Dolphins both lose to the Giants and Browns, respectively. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X factor: Henry. He has averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game since Drake Maye took over as the starting quarterback. In fact, Henry has seen at least eight targets in four of his past five games. Against his former team this week, expect him to be highly motivated and a key player in New England’s offense. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Patriots are 8-15 against the spread (ATS) after a loss since the start of last season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Chargers 30, Patriots 17
Moody’s pick: Chargers 21, Patriots 14
Walder’s pick: Chargers 27, Patriots 16
FPI prediction: LAC, 60.7% (by an average of 3.9 points)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | NFL Network | ESPN BET: CIN -3.5 (49.5 O/U)
Note: Cincinnati won 30-24 in overtime.
Broncos storyline to watch: The Broncos certainly hope cornerback Riley Moss can be back in the lineup for this one — he was a full participant in practice this week. In the three games since Moss sprained an MCL on Nov. 24 against the Raiders, Denver surrendered 30 points or more in two games and gave up two of their three highest yardage totals of the season. Moss has been the best option for the Broncos in the high-traffic position that is opposite of Pat Surtain II. Against a Bengals team that has thrown the ball 226 more times than it has run it, the Broncos will need every option in pass defense to clinch a playoff spot. — Jeff Legwold
Bengals storyline to watch: Ja’Marr Chase versus Pat Surtain II. It doesn’t get better than this. Chase is vying to become the fifth player since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 to win the receiving triple crown, when a player leads the league in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Surtain leads all cornerbacks in expected points added when targeted as the nearest defender (negative-25.8), per NFL Next Gen Stats. It will be a battle of the best against the best. — Ben Baby
Stat to know: The Bengals are 0-7 against teams with winning records this season, which is tied with the Jaguars and Patriots for the most losses without a win. Strangely, the Bengals have averaged 30.3 points per game in those losses. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Surtain will allow fewer than 50 receiving yards to Chase. It takes a star to stop Chase, but that’s exactly what Surtain is. He has allowed 0.5 yards per coverage snap this season, which is the best among outside corners, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Broncos can clinch a playoff spot with a win, which would be their first since the 2015 season, when they won Super Bowl 50. On the other end, the Bengals can keep their slim postseason hopes alive (7% chance, per ESPN Analytics) with a victory. Cincinnati would be eliminated with a loss. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X factor: Broncos quarterback Bo Nix. He’s the QB10 in ESPN leagues and draws a favorable matchup against a Bengals defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. With his top target, Courtland Sutton, Nix is in a prime spot to deliver in one of the highest fantasy totals of the week. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bengals have covered three straight games, while four straight Broncos games have gone over the total. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Bengals 28, Broncos 26
Moody’s pick: Bengals 31, Broncos 23
Walder’s pick: Bengals 24, Broncos 20
FPI prediction: CIN, 57.2% (by an average of 2.8 points)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | NFL Network | ESPN BET: LAR -6.5 (47.5 O/U)
Note: L.A. won 13-9.
Cardinals storyline to watch: Even though the Cardinals were eliminated from playoff contention Sunday, quarterback Kyler Murray still has something to prove. He has struggled since Arizona’s bye in Week 11 with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 4-to-6 in the past five games, in which the Cardinals have gone 1-4. Before the bye, however, Murray threw 12 touchdowns versus three interceptions. He still has two games left improve and, at the least, even out his ratio. — Josh Weinfuss
Rams storyline to watch: Quarterback Matthew Stafford did not have a passing touchdown in Week 2 against the Cardinals. That was one of five games this season in which he has not thrown a touchdown, the most in a single season in his career, according to ESPN Research. He has thrown just one touchdown pass in the past two weeks despite the Rams being on a four-game win streak. Since losing to Arizona, Los Angeles has not lost a divisional game. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: Tight end Trey McBride has 92 receptions and zero receiving touchdowns. If this continues, it will be the most receptions without a touchdown in a season (previous record was 86 by Diontae Johnson in 2022). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua will record at least 139 receiving yards to cross the 1,000-yard barrier. His efficiency numbers are outrageous. He has been targeted on 39% of his targets and is averaging 3.6 yards per route, both highest among wide receivers with at least 200 routes run. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Rams are looking to become the first team to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons after finding themselves three games under .500. They need to win Saturday and clinch strength of victory over Seattle to secure a postseason berth. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X factor: Rams running back Kyren Williams. Great things happen when the Rams give Williams the ball. He had 24 or more touches in three of his past four games and scored 18 or more fantasy points in each of those. Plus, the Cardinals’ defense gives up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cardinals have covered four straight games as underdogs (6-2 ATS this season, 4-1 ATS as road underdogs). Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Cardinals 27, Rams 25
Moody’s pick: Rams 27, Cardinals 16
Walder’s pick: Rams 34, Cardinals 21
FPI prediction: LAR, 55.2% (by an average of 2.0 points)
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