NFL Week 18 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips
Fantasy X factor: Eagles running back Kenneth Gainwell. Philadelphia plans to rest some players after securing its playoff spot with last week’s win over the Cowboys. Gainwell hasn’t played much this season but has managed 276 yards on 64 carries. He’s up against a Giants defense that has struggled all year, giving up the second-most rushing yards per game (146.6). See Week 18 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Giants are 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games. They are 0-4 in their past four road games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Eagles 24, Giants 17
Moody’s pick: Eagles 24, Giants 13
Walder’s pick: Giants 23, Eagles 17
FPI prediction: PHI, 82.9% (by an average of 14.3 points)
Saints storyline to watch: The Saints said they’ll play for the community in the wake of the deadly pickup truck attack in the French Quarter on Wednesday morning. Saints coach Darren Rizzi says he hopes the team can lift spirits in its season finale, which will conclude the Saints’ fourth straight season without a playoff berth. The status of running back Alvin Kamara (groin), Derek Carr (hand) and Chris Olave (concussion) remain unknown. — Katherine Terrell
Buccaneers storyline to watch: There’s history on the line for wide receiver Mike Evans, who needs 85 yards to tie Jerry Rice for the most consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons (11). He has reached 85 yards only three times in his career against the Saints, and the last time was 2018. — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: The Saints have been held below 20 points in five consecutive games entering Sunday. A sixth such game would break a tie for their longest such single-season streak since a nine-game streak in 1996. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Bucs edge rusher Yaya Diaby will record a sack. Diaby is hot, with a 22% pass rush win rate at edge since Week 14 that ranks sixth in that span, along with 1.5 sacks in his past two games. In Week 18, he’ll mostly face rookie Taliese Fuaga, whose 83% pass block win rate ranks 59th out of 66 tackles. — Walder
What’s at stake: Tampa Bay can clinch the NFC South with a win/tie or a Falcons loss/tie against Carolina. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X factor: Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield. Mayfield’s contract includes $500,000 incentives for ranking in the top 10 in the league or top five in the NFC in passer rating, touchdown passes, passing yards, completion percentage and yards per pass attempt. He’s set to hit them all entering the last week of the regular season. See Week 18 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their past five road games. They are 1-7 ATS against teams with winning records this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Saints 20
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 35, Saints 14
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 24, Saints 16
FPI prediction: TB, 79.7% (by an average of 12.3 points)
Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs have clinched the AFC 1-seed, so Carson Wentz will start at quarterback and other backups will fill their lineup. How competitive can they be against the Broncos, who are playing for a spot in the postseason? The Chiefs have generally done well in such situations with Andy Reid as their coach. They beat the Chargers in Week 18 last season with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. — Adam Teicher
Broncos storyline to watch: Backups or not for the Chiefs, the Broncos haven’t won home games against Kansas City in back-to-back seasons since defeating the Chiefs in Denver in both 2013 and 2014. As the league leader in sacks (58) and No. 5 in scoring defense (19.4 PPG), how the Broncos keep the heat on Wentz could well tilt the scales. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Chiefs have not scored more than 30 points in a game this season. Kansas City could join the 1971 Vikings and 1977 Broncos as the only teams since the 1970 merger to finish with the best record in the NFL while not scoring more than 30 points in a single game. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Broncos guard Quinn Meinerz will post a 100% pass block win rate. I’m assuming Chris Jones will either skip or mostly skip this one, and that should make life a lot easier for Meinerz and fellow guard Ben Powers. Meinerz ranks third this season in pass block win rate (96.4%). — Walder
What’s at stake: The Broncos can clinch a playoff berth with a win/tie or a Bengals loss/tie vs. the Steelers, plus a Dolphins loss/tie vs. the Jets. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X factor: Broncos quarterback Bo Nix. Nix has scored 20-plus fantasy points in back-to-back games and might face Kansas City’s backups, as the Chiefs have nothing on the line. See Week 18 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Broncos are 7-0 ATS as favorites this season. No team in the Super Bowl era has gone 8-0 ATS in a single regular season as favorites. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Broncos 24, Chiefs 20
Moody’s pick: Broncos 27, Chiefs 13
Walder’s pick: Broncos 24, Chiefs 21
FPI prediction: DEN, 51.6% (by an average of 0.8 points)
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LAC -4 (41.5 O/U)
Chargers storyline to watch: If the Steelers lose to the Bengals on Saturday, a win over the Raiders would earn the Chargers the No. 5 seed in the AFC. If the Steelers lose, the Chargers are locked into the sixth seed with nothing to play for against the Raiders. Coach Jim Harbaugh has made it clear that the Chargers want the fifth seed but didn’t say whether the team would play its key players Sunday if the Steelers lose. “Eleven wins sounds better than 10,” Harbaugh said. — Kris Rhim
Raiders storyline to watch: Lose to the Chargers and the Raiders go 0-6 in the AFC West for the first time since 2006. But beat the Chargers, who might be resting players in anticipation of the playoffs, and the suddenly rollicking Raiders close the season on a three-game winning streak after losing 10 straight, their longest in-season losing streak since 2014. The QB-needy Raiders’ recent winning ways have cost them a shot at the No. 1 pick, not that the current staff and roster care. “Just trying to stay in the present,” coach Antonio Pierce said. “Can’t live in the past, can’t worry about the future.” — Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: Raiders rookie Brock Bowers is nine receptions shy of passing Zach Ertz in 2018 (116) for most receptions in a season by a tight end in NFL history. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Chargers defensive back Derwin James Jr. will record an interception. No player who lines up primarily at slot corner and has at least 200 coverage snaps is giving up fewer yards per coverage snap than James at 0.6. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Chargers have a 26% chance to earn the No. 5 seed in the AFC, according to ESPN’s FPI. They can clinch the 5-seed with win and a Steelers loss vs. the Bengals. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X factor: Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins. He faces a Raiders defense he dominated in Week 1, scoring 22.9 fantasy points. The Las Vegas defense is a middle-of-the-road unit against the run, giving Dobbins another chance to shine. See Week 18 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Raiders quarterback Aidan O’Connell is 13-3 ATS in his career, which is tied for the second-best start through 16 games by any quarterback in the Super Bowl era. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Chargers 28, Raiders 17
Moody’s pick: Chargers 23, Raiders 20
Walder’s pick: Chargers 24, Raiders 18
FPI prediction: LAC, 55.6% (by an average of 2.1 points)
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: SEA -6.5 (38.5 O/U)
Seahawks storyline to watch: The Seahawks were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 17, but don’t tell Geno Smith that their regular-season finale is meaningless. The quarterback has $6 million on the line in the form of three contract escalators for 2025, each worth $2 million. He’d hit one if the Seahawks earn their 10th win of the season. He needs 185 passing yards to hit another. The other one is tied to Smith finishing the year at or above 69.76% completion rate; he’s at 70.24% now. — Brady Henderson
Rams storyline to watch: With the Rams clinching the NFC West in Week 17, quarterback Matthew Stafford will not play against Seattle. Instead, it will be backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo getting the start. When asked whether he sees this game as an audition for a chance to start next season, Garoppolo said, “I think anytime you get on the grass in live action, that’s your résumé.” Garoppolo is 1-4 in five career starts against Seattle in his career. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: Smith is 186 passing yards away from breaking the Seahawks’ record for a single season (4,282 yards, a mark he set in 2022). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Rams defensive tackle Kobie Turner will have at least three pressures and/or a sack. Turner will be squaring off against Seahawks backup center Olu Oluwatimi, who would rank 27th out of 34 centers in pass block win rate if he qualified. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Rams can clinch the No. 3 seed in the NFC with a win/tie or a Buccaneers loss/tie vs. the Saints. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X factor: Rams running back Blake Corum. Corum is being set up for an expanded role, as Los Angeles probably will rest its starters. See Week 18 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Seahawks are 0-6 ATS against teams with winning records this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Rams 30, Seahawks 28
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 27, Rams 17
Walder’s pick: Rams 30, Seahawks 20
FPI prediction: LAR, 56.4% (by an average of 2.5 points)
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: MIA -1 (38.5 O/U)
Dolphins storyline to watch: The Dolphins are preparing as if quarterback Tyler Huntley will make his fifth start of the season Sunday against the Jets, with Tua Tagovailoa still working through the hip injury that kept him out of their Week 17 game against the Browns. Huntley struggled to grasp a complex Miami offense in his first three starts of the season but shined against Cleveland, admitting after that he has a far superior understanding of this system than he did in Week 7. With a playoff berth potentially on the line, Miami will face a Jets defense that has put up the fourth-fewest defensive expected points added since being eliminated from playoff contention in Week 14. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Jets storyline to watch: This could be quarterback Aaron Rodgers‘ final game with the Jets; it could also be his final game as an NFL player, as the 41-year-old future Hall of Famer is undecided on whether to return for a 21st season. Rodgers, who seems resigned to the likelihood that he won’t be back with the Jets, hopes to end with one last milestone. He needs one touchdown pass to become the fifth player in history with 500. — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson has 97 receptions, three shy of becoming the second player in franchise history with 100 receptions in a single season (Brandon Marshall, 109 in 2015). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Dolphins Calais Campbell, Chop Robinson and Zach Sieler will all record at least half a sack. Each has had a strong season and, with Miami’s playoff hopes still alive, can deliver critical blows against Rodgers. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Dolphins can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a Broncos loss to the Chiefs. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X factor: Rodgers. He’s still chasing that 500th touchdown pass in his 20-year career and will start in Week 18. It would be fitting for Davante Adams to be the one to catch the milestone pass. See Week 18 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Dolphins road games are 7-1 to the under this season, with four straight road games going under the total. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Jets 24, Dolphins 17
Moody’s pick: Jets 23, Dolphins 20
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 27, Jets 14
FPI prediction: MIA, 53.5% (by an average of 1.4 points)
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: ARI -4.5 (42.5 O/U)
49ers storyline to watch: All that’s left for the Niners in this lost season is pride and a handful of individual achievements. One of those is for defensive end Nick Bosa, who is pursuing a fourth straight season with double-digit sacks. Bosa, who sat out time with hip and oblique injuries, has 9.0 sacks for the season and needs one more to reach at least 10 for a fourth straight time. More unlikely, though not completely out of the realm of possibility with Arizona playing backups at both tackle spots, Bosa needs 4.5 sacks to pass Charles Haley for second on the franchise list. — Nick Wagoner
Cardinals storyline to watch: Marvin Harrison Jr. is coming off one of his best games of the season, a 96-yard performance against the Rams, which put him at 822 yards for the season. He’s now 15 yards shy of passing his father, Hall of Fame receiver Marvin Harrison Sr., for yards as a rookie. Harrison Sr. had 836 yards in 1996 — six years before Harrison Jr. was born. Harrison Sr. didn’t have his first 1,000-yard season until his fourth year and then put up eight straight. Harrison Jr. had 36 yards on two catches in his first game of the season against the Niners. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: 49ers tight end George Kittle is seeking 100 receiving yards in three straight games for the first time in his career. The last 49ers player with 100 receiving yards in three straight games was Jerry Rice in 1995. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Cardinals edge Mack Wilson Sr. will bat down a pass. Wilson has three batted passes so far this season and also has a 16% pass rush win rate, roughly average for an edge rusher. And he’ll be going after backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Cardinals running back Michael Carter. James Conner (knee) and Trey Benson (ankle) are on injured reserve, leaving Carter as Arizona’s likely lead back. He’ll face a 49ers defense that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Carter’s volume could make him a solid option in Week 18. See Week 18 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cardinals have covered five straight games as underdogs. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Cardinals 30, 49ers 21
Moody’s pick: 49ers 31, Cardinals 24
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 28, 49ers 23
FPI prediction: SF, 55.5% (by an average of 1.9 points)
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: DET -3 (56.5 O/U)
Vikings storyline to watch: The Vikings don’t need any additional motivation for Sunday night’s game, but the consequences of a win would be enormous. They are the NFL’s oldest team, based on snap-weighted age, and would surely benefit from a first-round playoff bye. Lions coach Dan Campbell is 4-1 against Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell, largely because of what O’Connell termed “self-inflicted” causes. Indeed, the Vikings have committed nine turnovers and had a minus-seven turnover margin in those four losses. Playing a clean game, or at least matching their turnovers with takeaways, is the most critical variable for Sunday night. — Kevin Seifert
Lions storyline to watch: Becoming the NFC’s No. 1 seed has been a goal in Detroit since the Lions fell short in the 2023 NFC Championship Game to San Francisco. Campbell sees it “right here in our hands” against Minnesota as a victory in Week 18 would secure that. Detroit wants to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs to chase its ultimate goal. “We all know what the prize is and that’s a Super Bowl,” Campbell said Wednesday. “You try to set yourself up the best you can and that’s why you put those goals out there.” — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs has had 100-plus rushing yards in the past two games. A third would be the longest streak by a Lion since Barry Sanders in 1998 (five straight). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Lions will score a D/ST touchdown. I have a model for this, and it spits out a 16% chance for Detroit’s defense or special teams to record a touchdown. Perhaps it’s safety Kerby Joseph, aggrieved over his Pro Bowl snub, channeling his anger into a 10th pick that he returns for a touchdown. Or defensive end Za’Darius Smith strip-sacking quarterback Sam Darnold for a fumble a teammate returns. Or safety Brian Branch cutting off a pass and taking it the distance. — Walder
What’s at stake: This will be the first matchup in the final week of the regular season with the winner securing the No. 1 seed in a conference since the 11-4 Giants and 11-4 Cowboys met in the final week in 1993. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X factor: Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison. He has had at least eight targets and scored 13-plus fantasy points in four straight games, including two with 19 or more. This matchup projects to be a high-scoring affair, and the Lions give up the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. He’s in a great spot to deliver again this week. See Week 18 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Vikings have covered four straight games and are 12-4 ATS this season, tied for the best record in the NFL. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Lions 34, Vikings 31
Moody’s pick: Lions 31, Vikings 28
Walder’s pick: Lions 38, Vikings 31
FPI prediction: DET, 64.5% (by an average of 5.5 points)
Games played Saturday
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: BAL -19.5 (41.5 O/U)
Browns storyline to watch: Defensive end Myles Garrett is tied with Trey Hendrickson for the NFL lead with 14 sacks. Garrett, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, has never finished a season as the sack leader. In 13 games against the Ravens, Garrett has 8.5 sacks, including 5.5 takedowns of quarterback Lamar Jackson. — Daniel Oyefusi
Ravens storyline to watch: Jackson and the Ravens can win their fourth AFC North title in the past seven seasons with a victory over the last-place Browns. Jackson has flourished at this point of the season with a 4-0 career record in games played in Weeks 17 and 18, throwing 10 touchdown passes and one interception. Cleveland has typically struggled late in the season, winning only two of its past 14 regular-season finales. — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: Ravens running back Derrick Henry is 78 rushing yards shy of passing Tiki Barber (1,860 in 2005) for the most rush yards by a player age 30 or older in a season in NFL history. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Browns linebacker Mohamoud Diabate will record double-digit tackles for the first time in his career. ESPN’s Football Power Index favors the Ravens by 18.7 points in this contest, so a likely blowout for Baltimore should lead to a run-heavy game script that should create tackle opportunities for Cleveland’s linebackers. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Ravens can clinch the AFC North and No. 3 seed in the AFC with a win/tie or Steelers loss/tie vs. the Bengals. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X factor: Henry. A win over the Browns secures the AFC North and a home playoff game. Henry should be given ample touches, and if he scores in Week 18 to reach 15 touchdowns for the season, he’ll earn a $500,000 incentive. See Week 18 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Browns are 0-5 against the spread (ATS) in their past five games, their longest single-season ATS losing streak since 2017. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Ravens 27, Browns 14
Moody’s pick: Ravens 28, Browns 9
Walder’s pick: Ravens 24, Browns 13
FPI prediction: BAL, 89.8% (by an average of 18.8 points)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: CIN 2.5 (48.5 O/U)
Bengals storyline to watch: Cincinnati’s defense knows it can’t have a repeat of its last performance against Pittsburgh. Keeping the Steelers from picking up extra yards is a major point of emphasis heading into the must-win finale. In the Week 13 loss, the Bengals gave up 264 yards after the catch, per ESPN Research. That’s the most surrendered by any team this season. — Ben Baby
Steelers storyline to watch: The Steelers and Bengals have trended in opposite directions since their Week 13 meeting. While the Bengals are riding a four-game win streak entering the regular-season finale with their playoff hopes on the line, the Steelers are trying to break a three-game slide before they start postseason play. Among the Steelers’ priorities is getting back to the turnover culture that largely set the tone of their 10-3 start. Though the Steelers are tied atop league standings with 31 takeaways, the turnover differential has gone the wrong direction in the past three weeks — five turnovers to three takeaways. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt has gone two straight games without a sack. He hasn’t gone three straight without one this season. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson will record at least two sacks, winning the sack crown and reentering the Defensive Player of the Year conversation in a game in which he will outshine Watt. Hendrickson is currently 60-1 to win the award at ESPN BET. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Steelers can clinch the AFC North and the No. 3 seed in the AFC with a win and a Ravens loss vs. the Browns. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X factor: Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. Cincinnati is battling for the AFC’s final playoff spot. To get in, the Bengals must win and need losses from the Dolphins and Broncos. They play first, so expect Burrow, coming off a season-high 37 fantasy points in Week 17, to lean heavily on receiver Ja’Marr Chase. See Week 18 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bengals are 5-0 ATS as road favorites this season. They are 7-1 ATS overall on the road this season. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s pick: Bengals 28, Steelers 26
Moody’s pick: Bengals 28, Steelers 24
Walder’s pick: Bengals 23, Steelers 20
FPI prediction: PIT, 53.2% (by an average of 1.0 points)
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