NFL Week 4 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips
Matchup X factor: Commanders defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. Slowing down the Eagles’ run and forcing them to the air — where they’ve been a little shaky — seems crucial if Washington has any hopes of pulling an upset. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: Eagles receiver DeVonta Smith has played four games against the Commanders in his career, averaging 7.7 targets, 75.5 receiving yards and 15 fantasy points per game against Washington. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Commanders are 3-6-2 ATS as at least seven-point underdogs under coach Ron Rivera. All three covers were outright wins. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Eagles 35, Commanders 24
Walder’s pick: Eagles 27, Commanders 7
FPI prediction: PHI, 76.5% (by an average of 10 points)
Storyline to watch: The Panthers and Vikings are two of four 0-3 teams in the NFL, and neither were expected to be in this position. Each has reason to believe they can get a win. The Panthers welcome rookie QB Bryce Young (ankle) back to the starting lineup against a Vikings defense ranked 27th in the NFL, giving up 382.3 yards per game. The Vikings, with an offense ranked third overall and second in passing (339.7 yards per game), face a Panthers defense down two starters in the secondary (CB Jaycee Horn, S Xavier Woods) and banged up at several other positions. There are a lot of strengths versus weaknesses in this one. — David Newton
Bold prediction: Running back Alexander Mattison will have the Vikings’ first 100-yard rushing game of the season. The Vikings acquired Cam Akers from the Rams last week, and Akers will get some playing time Sunday, but Mattison will play with an extra competitive edge. It helps that the Panthers’ defense is allowing 136.7 rushing yards per game, tied for fifth-worst in the NFL. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins leads the NFL with 1,075 passing yards (most through three games in Vikings history). He needs 313 yards to set a franchise record for most passing yards through the first four games of a season (he set the record in 2018).
Matchup X factor: Young. The reality is the offense was better with Andy Dalton in Week 3 than it was with the rookie QB in the first two weeks. So much hinges on whether and how quickly the No. 1 overall pick can improve. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: The Vikings’ defense has allowed the third most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Adam Thielen has a favorable matchup against Vikings slot cornerback Josh Metellus, so the Panthers wide receiver should do well against his former team. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Panthers have won three straight games as home underdogs (3-1 ATS/straight up last season). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Vikings 24, Panthers 17
Walder’s pick: Vikings 33, Panthers 24
FPI prediction: MIN, 63.9% (by an average of 5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Vikings’ defense could be bigger worry than situational mistakes in 0-3 start … Thielen ‘feels like a kid again’ as he prepares for Vikings … O’Connell threatens to bench players over turnover issues
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: PIT -3 (42.5)
Storyline to watch: The Steelers’ defense is tied for fifth in interceptions (four), but Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud has yet to throw an interception in his NFL career. A potential issue for the Texans is they have injuries all over the offensive line as LT Laremy Tunsil, RT Tytus Howard, C Juice Scruggs, LG Kenyon Green and backup LT Josh Jones are injured. Tunsil and Jones aren’t on injured reserve like Howard, Green and Scruggs, but they might not play on Sunday. — DJ Bien-Aime
Bold prediction: Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt will tie his single-game career-high with four sacks. Because Stroud excelled at getting the ball out quickly against the Jaguars’ blitz, the Texans didn’t surrender a sack a week ago — but gave up 11 in the previous two weeks. Watt had multiple sacks in two of three games this season, plus older brother J.J. Watt will be inducted into the Texans’ Ring of Honor this weekend. Count on a friendly yet fierce sibling rivalry to get a little extra juice. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin’s 23-4 record against rookie quarterbacks is the best record of any coach vs. first-year QBs since at least 1950 with a minimum of 15 games coached.
Matchup X factor: Texans wide receiver Tank Dell. The rookie third-round pick ranks second in yards per route run against man coverage among wide receivers with at least 50 routes and looks like an emerging star. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: The Texans’ defense ranks 19th in run stop win rate and has allowed the fourth most fantasy points per game to running backs. Colts running back Zack Moss scored 20.7 fantasy points against Houston’s defense in Week 2, and the Jaguars’ Travis Etienne Jr. scored 17.8 fantasy points in Week 3. That bodes well for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Texans are 0-9-1 outright in their past 10 home games (4-6 ATS). They are 2-6 ATS in their past eight home games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Steelers 27, Texans 17
Walder’s pick: Texans 19, Steelers 16
FPI prediction: PIT, 58.7% (by an average of 3.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Can the Steelers’ offensive improvement vs. Raiders be trusted? … Texans rookies Stroud, Anderson, Dell asserting themselves among the NFL’s elite … Stroud makes history
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: LAC -5 (49)
Storyline to watch: Both teams’ top receivers, Keenan Allen of the Chargers and Davante Adams of the Raiders, are fresh off dominant performances. Allen threw a passing touchdown and had 18 catches for 215 yards and a receiving score last week against the Vikings; Adams had 13 receptions for 172 yards and two touchdowns against Pittsburgh. Now, they both face struggling pass defenses. The Chargers’ secondary has allowed the most passing yards this season (1,079), and both teams are tied for the third-most passing touchdowns allowed (seven). — Kris Rhim
Bold prediction: No matter who is playing quarterback for the Raiders — Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell — he will be sacked at least twice each by Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. The Raiders’ O-line allowed Garoppolo — who is in concussion protocol — to get sacked four times last week. Mack, the 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year for the Raiders, is looking for his first sack of the season, while Bosa already has three. — Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has 213 consecutive passes without throwing an interception, the longest streak in team history.
Matchup X factor: Chargers cornerback Michael Davis. He’s allowing 2.3 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats — almost double the league average for an outside corner. That’s part of the reason the Chargers’ pass defense has been so poor. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: With just two rushing attempts of more than 10 yards and six passes of more than 20 yards, the Raiders have generated the fewest explosive plays in the league. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Raiders have covered five of their past six division games. The past four division games have gone under the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chargers 27, Raiders 21
Walder’s pick: Chargers 34, Raiders 30
FPI prediction: LAC, 74.6% (by an average of 9.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Rookie or vet if Garoppolo can’t start? The pros, cons and QB questions for the Raiders … Williams’ injury sets the stage for rookie Johnston … Ekeler, back at practice, says Week 4 ‘a possibility’
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: DAL -6.5 (43)
Storyline to watch: Maybe you’ve heard this is Ezekiel Elliott‘s first time back at AT&T Stadium since he was cut by the Cowboys. While Elliott’s homecoming has been a central theme this week, the Cowboys need to find the form they had in the first two weeks defensively after a no-show against the Cardinals. Stopping Elliott and Rhamondre Stevenson will be at the top of the list, but offensively, they will have to find a way to score touchdowns in the red zone vs. a stingy Patriots defense. The Cowboys have converted six touchdowns in 15 red-zone trips. New England did not allow a red-zone trip to the Jets last week. — Todd Archer
Bold prediction: Elliott will score his first rushing touchdown as a Patriot against his former team. Elliott is coming off his best game in New England (80 yards on 16 carries), and the Cowboys have shown a vulnerability against the run, ranking 30th in yards per carry allowed (5.3) and 25th in rushing yards allowed per game (131.3). — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is averaging a career-low 6.3 yards per attempt and 5.3 air yards per attempt. The air yards is second-shortest in the league, behind only Colts rookie Anthony Richardson.
Matchup X factor: The Patriots offensive line. It already ranks last in pass block win rate and now is facing Micah Parsons and the Dallas pass rush. Good luck. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: The Patriots’ offensive line helped New England amass 157 rushing yards in Week 3. This Patriots grouping should remain together for a second consecutive week, which is noteworthy since this group did not get many reps together during the summer. That could be big for the Pats’ running backs against a spotty Dallas rush defense. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Patriots quarterback Mac Jones is 0-10 ATS in his past 10 starts as an underdog. He is 3-11 ATS as an underdog in his career (2-12 outright). And the Patriots are 0-7 ATS in their past seven games as an underdog. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Cowboys 23, Patriots 20
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 28, Patriots 20
FPI prediction: DAL, 68.6% (by an average of 6.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Will Jones get Patriots’ deep-passing game going against Cowboys? … Cowboys’ red zone struggles continue in loss to Cardinals … Elliott looking forward to facing Cowboys
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: SF -14 (44)
Storyline to watch: The Cardinals’ win against the Cowboys in Week 3 should serve as a warning to the Niners that Arizona is not to be taken lightly, especially with San Francisco scheduled for a Sunday night showdown against Dallas in Week 5. The Niners pride themselves on being the most physical team in every game, but a run defense that hasn’t been tested much this year (opponents have attempted just 43 rushes, the fewest in the NFL through three weeks) will be challenged. Arizona enters this matchup ranked sixth in rushing yards and second in yards per rush. — Nick Wagoner
Bold prediction: Cardinals QB Joshua Dobbs will finally break out and have his first 300-yard passing game while adding 75 yards on the ground. Dobbs has been solid so far, as his 61.2 QBR ranks 10th in the NFL, but he’ll step it up even more and put Arizona in position to pull an upset. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: Niners running back Christian McCaffrey has 12 straight games, including playoffs, with a touchdown, matching Jerry Rice (1987) for the longest streak in franchise history.
Matchup X factor: Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson. He’s averaging a gaudy 17.1 air yards per target. If the Cardinals are going to somehow pull off this upset, they’re probably going to need some deep shots to the rookie. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: Only the Ravens, Browns, 49ers, Eagles and Dolphins have averaged more rushing yards per game than the Cardinals (156.3). Almost half the Cardinals’ rushing attempts have gained five or more yards, second-highest in the league. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS this season, all as an underdog. They are the first team to start 3-0 ATS and be double-digit underdogs in their fourth game since the 1977 Buccaneers and the first to be at least 14-point underdogs in their fourth game since the 1969 Falcons. Read more.
Moody’s pick: 49ers 35, Cardinals 17
Walder’s pick: 49ers 26, Cardinals 16
FPI prediction: SF, 87.3% (by an average of 15.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Obstacles in Gannon’s career path led him to Cardinals … 49ers fully appreciate significance of second 3-0 start since 1999 … Is McCaffrey the prototype for the next star running back?
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: KC -8.5 (41.5)
Storyline to watch: You could argue this matchup features the best quarterback in the NFL against the worst. Since entering the league in 2021, Zach Wilson has a league-low 34.4 QBR, which is last among qualified passers. In the same span, Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL with a 73.4 QBR. This season has seen much of the same, as Mahomes’ 69.2 QBR is fifth in the league, while Wilson’s mark of 26.7 is 33rd out of 34 qualified quarterbacks. — Rich Cimini
Bold prediction: The Chiefs will notch their first shutout since they blanked the Texans in a 2015 wild-card playoff win. The Chiefs are playing as well, if not better, on defense than they have since Andy Reid became their coach in 2013, while the Jets are struggling to make their way with Wilson at quarterback. The Chiefs took a shutout into the fourth quarter last week against the Bears. This time, they finish the job. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: With one passing touchdown on Sunday Night Football, Mahomes will surpass Hall of Famer Dan Marino for the fewest career games to 200 passing touchdowns in NFL history.
Matchup X factor: Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner. The Jets are going to need an otherwordly defensive performance — probably with a defensive score — to pull off this upset. No one’s more important in making that happen than Gardner. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: Through three games, the Jets rank 32nd in points, total yards, and first downs. New York has averaged only 2.8 yards per play in Wilson’s two starts. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jets are 3-1 ATS and 2-2 outright as home underdogs of more than a touchdown. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 28, Jets 10
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 24, Jets 13
FPI prediction: KC, 74.1% (by an average of 9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Mahomes reaches 25,000 career passing yards in win … Saleh, players OK with Rodgers calling out Jets … A hype timeline of Kelce and Swift’s rumored romance … Namath blasts Wilson as Jets reaffirm faith in QB
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: SEA -1 (47)
Storyline to watch: This will be QB Geno Smith‘s first start at MetLife Stadium since Week 7 of the 2016 season when he was with the Jets. Since then, Smith started for the Giants (in place of Eli Manning) in a road game in 2017 and played for the Chargers and Seahawks. As the starter for the Seahawks, Smith beat the Giants and Jets last year in Seattle and evolved into a Pro Bowl quarterback. Now, he returns to the place where his career began as a second-round pick for the Jets in 2013. — Jordan Raanan
Bold prediction: Jamal Adams will have at least 1.5 sacks in his return from injury. The star safety is finally back from the torn quad tendon he suffered in last season’s opener, so Monday night’s game will mark an unveiling of Seattle’s plan to get him back to his 2020 form, when he set the record for sacks in a season by a defensive back with 9.5. He faces Giants quarterback Daniel Jones, who has already been sacked 12 times over three games, tied for fourth-most in the league. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: Jones has a 1-11 career record in prime-time games as a starter, with the lone win coming in Week 15 last season against the Commanders. Jones’ prime-time record is the worst by any starting QB since the 1970 merger (minimum 10 starts).
Matchup X factor: Giants tight end Darren Waller. He is averaging 1.7 yards per route run, which sounds OK for a tight end, but the Giants need him to be more than that. His 25% target rate ranks 27th among players with at least 50 routes run, but he ranks 50th in yards per route run among that same group. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: Many fantasy managers expect Jones and the Giants’ pass catchers to have a productive Monday night, with the Seahawks allowing the second-most passing yards this season. But the Seahawks are fourth in pass rush win rate, which could be a factor against Jones, who has struggled against pressure in the past. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Giants have lost seven straight Monday Night Football games, going 3-4 ATS in that span. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 27, Giants 24
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 31, Giants 21
FPI prediction: SEA, 57% (by an average of 2.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Why Seattle’s run defense has surprised so far this season … How do the Giants fix their defense? … Seahawks safety Adams to return vs. Giants on MNF … Giants say Barkley day-to-day with ankle injury
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