NFL Week 6 picks against the spread: Are John Harbaugh, Zac Taylor coaching for their jobs?

Imagine you’re Baltimore Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti or Cincinnati Bengals owner Mike Brown, and you watched the San Francisco 49ers’ dramatic road win over the Los Angeles Rams last Thursday night.

The Niners were down several starters, including their quarterback, leading pass rusher, star tight end and many receivers but shocked everybody thanks to their toughness, leadership and coaching.

Three days later, Biscotti and Brown watched their teams get bullied again. Both are missing their starting quarterback, and the Ravens are without several defensive starters, but they showed zero fight in getting blown out at home by the offensively-challenged Texans. It begs the question: Are Ravens coach John Harbaugh and Bengals coach Zac Taylor coaching for their jobs? Each has lost three games in row, and neither can use losing Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow as excuses. They have gone from contenders to pretenders in less than a month.

There are more terrible teams than ever, as nine teams have a per-game point differential of minus-7 or worse, up from six teams through five weeks last year. The Bengals are the worst at -14.2, while the Ravens are ninth at -7.2. Familiar failures like the Tennessee Titans, Las Vegas Raiders, Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants and Miami Dolphins round out the bunch.

The Bengals had to make a move for a QB, trading for Joe Flacco. Hey … don’t laugh. The Ravens, meanwhile, needed a safety, and Harbaugh asked his brother to help him out, so the Chargers sent Alohi Gilman over for pass rusher Odafe Oweh. Their mom will be happy.

Speaking of desperate times, I had another losing week, thanks to six teams coming back from double-digit deficits to win. It’s the first time that has happened since 2013, and we were on the wrong side of four of those. So, as promised, we have laid out the bird seed by each team’s name, and my cousin’s chicken, Nugget, will be making the picks this week. (I’ll add mine as well, just for giggles.)

Last week’s record: 6-8 against the spread, 2-3 on best bets

Season record: 31-43-4 against the spread, 11-14 on best bets

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) at New York Giants | 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon Prime

The Eagles looked a little bored last week, so maybe a loss gets their attention. Or maybe Brian Daboll’s quip about AJ Brown will. All they have to do is get Saquon Barkley the ball. He had 176 yards rushing in his only game against his old team last year, and the Giants’ run defense is even worse this season. Giants rookie Jaxson Dart is a better runner than passer, and the Eagles will test his sore hamstring by blitzing him a lot. Ah … Nugget disagrees with me.

The pick: Giants 

Denver Broncos (-7.5) at New York Jets (London) | 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday, NFL Network

The London fans are in for a treat … when it comes to watching Justin Fields in garbage time. The Jets stink, but they have scored 57 points in the second half over the past three games, and they might not be down that many points this week. It’s hard to see the Broncos not sleeping through the first half after an emotional comeback win over the Eagles.

The pick: Nugget might be laughing at me. Broncos

Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) at Baltimore Ravens | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

The Rams had some extra time off after the overtime loss to the 49ers, and they are one of four teams to have outgained their opponents in every game. The Ravens have been outgained in every game. Derrick Henry has rushed for 50 yards or fewer in four consecutive games, his longest such streak within a season since his rookie year in 2016. Even Nugget agrees that this one is too easy.

The pick: Rams 

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Carolina Panthers | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

The Cowboys beat the Jets easily with four backup offensive linemen and a really bad run defense. That seems like a bad recipe on the road, especially in the Rico Dowdle revenge game. But I can’t take Bryce Young over Dak Prescott in what might be a high-scoring game. Nugget agrees.

The pick: Cowboys 

Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

Trevor Lawrence can sure gallop, especially after he falls down, but his inaccuracy is going to catch up with him. It does every season. I think this is a bounce-back week for the Seahawks’ defense, and Seattle should be able to run the ball and make life easier on Sam Darnold. Not that he needs much help — Darnold has proven he is legit. He ranks second in the NFL in passer rating on throws 10-plus yards downfield (134.3).

The pick: Nugget made a “Duuuval” like sound and is going with the Jaguars.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

Little Dillon Gabriel was better than I thought last week. That’s not saying much, but he was very conservative and didn’t make any big mistakes, and that’s something. The Steelers’ defense has let us down this season, but the Browns are on their third straight road trip, while the Steelers are coming off a bye, and it’s hard to stay close when your quarterback can complete only 30 percent of his passes that travel 10 yards or more. Nugget nods yes.

The pick: Steelers

Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

The Chargers’ offensive line is a mess, and they’re down to their third running back, but luckily, the Dolphins’ defensive line is not big on rushing the quarterback or stopping the run. The Dolphins did play really hard last week (kudos), before totally falling apart and blowing a big lead to Young — which is very difficult to do. They are now back on their steep downward slope after getting their one win over the Jets. Nugget and I are seeing eye to eye again.

The pick: Chargers

New England Patriots (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

The Saints came through for us again, and they might cover the rest of the way for us. Drake Maye is being crowned by all the national pundits after making some nice throws against an overconfident Bills team. The Saints have a pretty good offensive line, and Spencer Rattler is gaining in confidence. They’ll stay close against the hungover Patriots.

The pick: We’re both on the Saints.

Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts (-7) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

The Cardinals had a snap bounce off Kyler Murray’s facemask, and that was only their third-worst play in their total collapse against the Titans. They are not a smart team, so it shouldn’t be surprising when the coach takes a swing at a player.

But here’s the thing: As maddening as they are, the Cardinals have an underrated defense and could easily be 5-0 against the spread as opposed to 2-3. Their pass defense should be OK against a suddenly overrated Daniel Jones, who averaged a season-low 7.3 yards per attempt against the Raiders and completed just 3 of 7 passes thrown 10-plus-yard downfield (a season-low 43 percent).

The pick: Nugget thinks I am reaching. Colts

Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

Pete Carroll, 74, was running 100-yard full sprints down the sidelines at practice last week. It did not translate to the win column on Sunday. But Carroll can catch his breath this week after an ugly 1-4 start. If Geno Smith cannot avoid throwing interceptions and Ashton Jeanty can’t run wild against the Titans’ defense, the Raiders might not win another game this season.

Meanwhile, Titans rookie Cam Ward has completed just 52 percent of his passes, the worst mark by a QB taken No. 1 in his first five career starts over the past 20 years (14 QBs).

The pick: Raiders. Both of us. It’s a lock.

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (-14) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

Alright. You sitting still? Joe Flacco is not the answer — even though he already beat the Packers once this season. Especially on the road against an angry Packers team coming off a loss, a tie and a bye. With such a big spread, there is a danger of a backdoor cover, but we think Josh Jacobs, Matthew Golden and the defense all score against a toothless Bengals team that needs a new coach before the Week 10 bye week. Nugget nods yes.

The pick: Packers 

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

If the 49ers thought winning last week without their starting quarterback, top four receivers and Nick Bosa was tough, now they have to do it all over again in the Tampa heat. With no running game. Christian McCaffrey ranks 35th in the NFL in yards before contact per rush (0.8), and he’s been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 50 percent of his rushes (20th in the NFL). Vita Vea and the Buccaneers, meanwhile, rank second in the NFL in rush defense success rate (68 percent).

The pick: Buccaneers

Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC

The Chiefs looked good Monday night, other than Patrick Mahomes’ pick six and the effort on Trevor Lawrence’s winning TD run, but here they are: 0-3 in one-score games after going 12-0 in close games last season. Make it 1-3, as the Lions are beaten up in the trenches and in the secondary, and Mahomes has been airing it out pretty good, besides that one costly mistake Monday night.

The pick: Chiefs times two

Buffalo Bills (-4.5) at Atlanta Falcons | 7:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN

This is a tougher-than-you-think bounce-back game for the Bills. The Falcons can run the ball, while the Bills rank 30th in yards allowed per rush at 5.6. Furthermore, Drake London is a tough cover, and the Falcons’ pass rush and secondary are improved. The Bills pull it out but don’t cover the spread.

The pick: Nugget loves Josh Allen and has the Bills covering.

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (-4.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC

Ben Johnson’s offenses in Detroit averaged 7.2 yards per play in games immediately following a bye week, best among 140 offensive coordinators to coach multiple games off a bye this century. I just dropped the mic, and Nugget was scared into agreeing.

The pick: Bears

Best bets: What, am I supposed to time how fast Nugget eats the birdseed? We’ll just stick with the opening theme and go with the Rams and Packers to blow out the Ravens and Bengals, respectively. And we have the Chargers and Raiders bouncing back from tough losses to cover the spread against the Dolphins and Titans, and the Bucs taking down the 49ers.

Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): We got one right last week, with the Buccaneers, and just like the Saints, we’re going to make it two in a row. They are +155 at home against the Patriots.

— TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett.