Ohio State football preview 2025: Can the Buckeyes repeat? Here’s what to watch and expect

Ohio State is the most consistent winner in college football, but it has never repeated as national champion.

The 1969 and 2015 teams spent most of the season at No. 1 after winning the previous championship, but both dropped out of the title race thanks to November upsets (1969 to Michigan, 2015 to Michigan State). In 2003, Ohio State stumbled against Wisconsin and then lost again to Michigan to knock it out of a BCS title game debate.

Having the entire country gunning for your team is only half the battle. Some teams also have to fight complacency or the idea that they know everything after making a championship run the year before.

“We walked into training camp like, ‘OK we know what it takes to win a championship, we know we’re going to be really freaking good, we have everybody coming back,’ but I think there were things we took for granted,” said NBC Sports college football analyst Joshua Perry, a linebacker from 2012-15. “We went to the ESPYs, guys were hanging out with celebrities. I don’t want to say we forgot what got us there before, but you take those things for granted. You feel like you’re doing them, but not in the way you used to be.”

This year’s Ohio State roster lost major pieces — including 14 NFL Draft picks and both coordinators — so unlike the 2015 squad that returned a bulk of its key players, this time the Buckeyes have a chip on their shoulder, especially after last November’s loss to Michigan. They’ve said countless times since the spring that they feel like they’ve accomplished nothing. That mindset is what could make things different, Perry said.

“This year’s team can go into the offseason like, ‘We know what we’re doing in terms of winning a championship, but like you didn’t play or so and so didn’t play,’” Perry said. “You saw what it takes, but now you have to do those things, because you haven’t done them yet. That’s an advantage because we had guys who were like, ‘We know what it takes, so we have to do those things, but I don’t know if we have to do them as hard as we did last offseason.’”

Georgia (2021-22) is the only team to repeat in the College Football Playoff era, and Alabama (2011-12) is the only other program to repeat as champion in the past 20 years. Before Ohio State can realistically think about winning another national championship, it will be tested against one of the best teams in the country when No. 1 Texas visits on Saturday (noon ET, Fox).

There’s plenty of talent on the No. 3 Buckeyes’ roster, even with a first-time starting quarterback. Let’s dive into some final predictions for the season with Week 1 here:

What are realistic expectations for Julian Sayin?

Under Ryan Day, the Buckeyes have passed the ball much more than they did under Urban Meyer and Jim Tressel and produced some of the best quarterbacks and receiving corps in the country.

Ohio State will once again have arguably the nation’s best receivers, led by Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, and it has added one of the best receiving tight ends in Purdue transfer Max Klare. With all of those weapons and an experienced offensive line, the Buckeyes are well equipped to make things easy for Sayin, who was named the starter last week. Of course, expectations are always high for Ohio State quarterbacks, especially one with the five-star recruiting pedigree of Sayin.

So what’s realistic for Sayin on Saturday and beyond? Let’s look back at Day’s previous first-year starting quarterbacks, leaving out Will Howard last year because of his experience at Kansas State.

• In 2019, Justin Fields took over after one year as a backup at Georgia. He completed 67 percent of his passes with 3,273 yards and 41 touchdowns to just three interceptions. He finished 11th in completion percentage, 23rd in yards and third in passing touchdowns. Fields is a bit different because of his mobility, as he added 484 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground.

• In 2021, C.J. Stroud completed 71 percent of his passes for 4,434 yards, 44 touchdowns and six interceptions. Stroud was thrown right into Power 4 games, like Sayin will be. He opened with 294 yards and four touchdowns against Minnesota and then threw 54 passes in a loss to Oregon. Three of his six interceptions came in his first three games before he settled in and finished in the top five in completion percentage, yards and touchdowns.

• In 2023, Kyle McCord struggled to keep up with the expectations set by the players before him. He completed 65.8 percent, throwing for 3,170 yards with 24 touchdowns and six interceptions before transferring to Syracuse.

Sayin will draw comparisons to Stroud because he’s the most like him in terms of arm talent. Sayin has a smooth and fast release. When his body is lined up, the ball comes off his hand effortlessly, and he has a strong arm despite some thinking he’s small at 6 feet 1.

Sayin has thrown just 12 career passes in mop-up duty as a true freshman, so where he fits into the national landscape is hard to say right now — he was 32nd in The Athletic’s July ranking of 136 projected FBS starters — but since he was in high school, one of the things his coaches have focused on is completion percentage. That lines up well with what Day does in his offenses, too. His quarterbacks complete passes at a high level, and they don’t turn the ball over. If Sayin can continue that trend, then he should have a strong first year.

It is asking too much for him to equal Stroud’s first season, but I think Stroud is the closest comparison here. I’ll say Sayin has a better year than McCord, but doesn’t quite hit the level of Stroud. Over 3,600 yards and around 30 touchdowns are in the realm of possibility for a player as talented as Sayin.

Breakout player to watch: Kenyatta Jackson Jr.

The redshirt junior has been talked about as a potential breakout star at defensive end for years because of his strong offseason showings, but he hasn’t had a chance to get enough snaps because of the players in front of him.

Now, with JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer in the NFL, it’s Jackson’s turn. After admitting he didn’t want to be a leader at first, Jackson has since taken over that role. He also looks the part. He’s 6-foot-6, 265 pounds and looks even bigger if you stand next to him. His speed is still there, too. He had another strong preseason camp and returns with the most experience of the defensive ends after playing 301 defensive snaps in 2024.

Ohio State will rotate ends, but Jackson is the favorite to lead in snaps. If that’s the case, Ohio State is going to need a stellar year from the Florida native, a top-100 recruit in the Class of 2022. I like the chances of Jackson becoming an All-Big Ten performer who gives new defensive coordinator Matt Patricia an edge player he can build around.

Toughest game: Texas, Aug. 30

The Buckeyes are No. 3 in the preseason AP poll and host the two teams in front of them. I was tempted to highlight No. 2 Penn State here, but the familiarity with the Nittany Lions and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles changed that.

No. 1 Texas is loaded across the board. Not only are the Longhorns led by Arch Manning, the No. 1 player from the 2023 recruiting cycle and the No. 2 player on Dane Brugler’s preseason draft board, but they have talent all over the field, especially on defense.

Saturday’s game will have one of the best linebacker battles we may see this year, with Anthony Hill Jr. on one side and Sonny Styles on the other. Both are preseason All-Americans. Cornerback Malik Muhammad is underrated and will step into the spotlight after Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron left for the NFL. The defensive line is led by star edge player Collin Simmons, who was named the Shaun Alexander freshman of the year last season. Like Ohio State, the Longhorns have a new rotation up front, but Simmons is good enough to take over the game himself.

To put it simply, Texas might have the best defense in the country.

I question what the Longhorns have on the offensive line, and none of the receivers should scare Ohio State. But despite the offensive questions, I still think Texas is a bigger problem than Penn State.

Don’t sleep on: at Washington, Sept. 27

For many years, you can look at Ohio State’s schedule and break it into three parts: the nonconference, Penn State and Michigan. But even without Oregon, this year’s schedule is not easy.

Ohio State plays three ranked teams in its first eight: No. 1 Texas on Saturday, at No. 12 Illinois on Oct. 11 and home vs. No. 2 Penn State on Nov. 1. And after an idle Week 4, Ohio State starts Big Ten play with a stretch of three games out of four on the road: at Washington, Minnesota, at Illinois and at Wisconsin. Minnesota coming to town on Oct. 4 won’t be easy as a sandwich game between road trips, but don’t sleep on a trip to Washington as a sneaky-tough Big Ten opener.

The Huskies struggled last year, finishing 6-7 and 4-5 in the Big Ten after losing coach Kalen DeBoer and most of their national runner-up roster, but I expect them to be much better in the second year under coach Jedd Fisch, with a breakout quarterback to watch in Demond Williams Jr.

The Buckeyes will benefit from having a bye week before making the trip to Seattle, but the West Coast travel is tricky and there’s a lot to like with this Washington team.

Washington can set the tone for the rest of Ohio State’s season, especially if the Buckeyes lose to Texas. I’m picking Ohio State to beat the Huskies, but this is a game that shouldn’t be overlooked as a barometer for the development of a reloading team.

Final predictions

I spent the entire offseason thinking that the Buckeyes would go 10-2 this season, but coming out of preseason camp, I’ve been tempted to move my prediction to 11-1.

My biggest concerns in the preseason were the defensive line, quarterback and running back, but I’m higher on those positions than I was a few months ago. Though I still need to see what Sayin will do at quarterback, the arm talent is there.

I think new defensive coordinator Patricia can put together a good scheme with the secondary, led by Caleb Downs, and a strong linebacker corps, giving him some flexibility up front. The edge rushers are better than I expected, and the defensive tackle combo of Eddrick Houston and Kayden McDonald can wreck games.

I’m still uncertain about the running backs, but I’m a huge fan of James Peoples as the starter, so I think the Buckeyes will find a way to make it work after losing both Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson.

I’ve considered changing my prediction because Texas isn’t a perfect team, either, and Ohio State’s defense can give the Longhorns’ new offensive line some problems. Still, I’m going to stick with the Buckeyes losing to Texas in a close game. And as I said in early June, I’ll pick Ohio State to lose to Michigan again. I think Ohio State is the better team, but I need to see the Buckeyes beat the Wolverines before I pick them in the rivalry.

That puts Ohio State at 10-2, but this time in the Big Ten title game, where I think they win their first Big Ten championship since 2020. An 11-2 record with a Big Ten championship should be good enough to get a bye in the Playoff, and from there it’s all about matchups.

It’s not out of the realm of possibility for this team to repeat as national champion. After all, Ohio State has the best odds to make the field (82 percent) and win the title (14 percent) in The Athletic’s projections model. But I’m going with Clemson over Texas in the championship game and will say Ohio State makes it to the semifinals.

(Top photo: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)