Oregon vs. Penn State Odds & Prediction

Oregon vs. Penn State Predictions

There might not be a bigger game on the Week 5 college football schedule than the one between the Oregon Ducks and Penn State Nittany Lions — and that includes the Alabama Crimson Tide taking on the Georgia Bulldogs. All year, we’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 5 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.

MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!

 

How to Watch Oregon vs. Penn State

Where: Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania

When: Saturday, September 27th at 7:30 pm ET

Channel: NBC

Oregon vs. Penn State Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Wednesday, September 24th. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Penn State -166, Oregon +140

Spread: Penn State -3.5 (-108), Oregon +3.5 (-112)

Total: Over 51.5 (-115), Under 51.5 (-105)

Oregon vs. Penn State Analysis

Last year, Oregon and Penn State met in the Big Ten Championship Game, with the Ducks emerging with a 45-37 victory as 3-point favorites. In that game, Dillon Gabriel, now with the Cleveland Browns, picked the Nittany Lions secondary apart. Gabriel threw for 283 yards with four touchdowns and no picks, and he was one of the many upperclassmen that performed at a high level in that game. However, even though the jerseys look the same, these are two different teams. Some of those Ducks are gone. And this time, the game will be played in Happy Valley, not on a neutral field. Advantage: Penn State.

A lot can be said about James Franklin’s big-game coaching, but he has enjoyed these spots throughout his career. The Nittany Lions are 8-1 straight-up and 7-2 against the spread as home favorites of 7 or less under Franklin. Penn State also happens to be coming off a bye, and the team is 14-10 ATS when playing with the extra week of preparation under Franklin.

The Nittany Lions also landed a big fish over the summer, convincing defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to leave Ohio State. So far, the Nittany Lions defense looks great. Penn State is fifth in the nation in Adjusted EPA per play allowed (-0.31), and the team is fourth in college football in Havoc percentage (19.9%). And that’s really where you might see a big difference in this specific matchup. Last year, Gabriel had all the time in the world to sit back and find open receivers streaking up the field. Let’s see if Dante Moore has that same luxury. This Nittany Lions pass rush is no joke, and Knowles is going to send a lot of pressure at Moore. This is the biggest road game of the sophomore’s career, and it’s going to feel a little different playing at Penn State than it did at Northwestern. And it’s not like Moore played particularly well in that game either.

This also feels like a bit of a dream matchup for Nittany Lions offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. The Ducks are pretty good on the defensive side of the ball, but they’re just 49th in the nation in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.08). That said, Oregon is beatable in the trenches, and Penn State is well equipped to take advantage of that. The Nittany Lions have one of the best offensive lines in the country, and they also have an elite running back duo in Nicolas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Oddly enough, Allen has outplayed Singleton, rushing for 273 yards on 34 carries. Singleton has rushed for only 179 yards on 41 carries. But both of them are capable of making big plays, and Penn State is going to test Oregon up the middle. And if the Ducks end up having to overplay the running game, that’s where Kotelnicki will kill them. He blends the run and pass as well as any offensive playcaller in the country, and he could set up some big opportunities for Drew Allar to make plays. Allar hasn’t really looked like himself to start the year, but great players play well in big games. He should be able to rise to the occasion here.

On top of all of that, it also looks like there’s some sharp money on the Nittany Lions. Our VSiN betting splits page shows a majority of the bets on Oregon, but Penn State has moved from -3 to -3.5 in most shops.

For those interested in the total, there has also been some sharp action on the Under. The number was up at 52.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook on September 21st, but it’s down at 51.5 despite most of the bets coming in on the Over. To add a little to that, the Under is also 5-3-1 in the nine games Penn State has played as a home favorite of 7 or fewer under Franklin. It’s also 7-6 in the 13 games Oregon has played against teams with winning percentages of 75% or higher under Dan Lanning.

Oregon vs. Penn State Prediction

I was able to get Penn State -3 for a reasonable price in this one, so I jumped at the opportunity to avoid the hook. I’d advise shopping around to do the same. However, the Nittany Lions should win this game by more than a field goal, so I wouldn’t talk anybody out of playing the 3.5. There’s just a real chance Penn State dominates the physicality battle, which should make a huge difference in the final score. Plus, I have doubts about Moore turning in a Heisman-caliber performance in this environment.

Bet: Penn State -3 (-123)