Profiling the top 77 outfielders, and rookies to watch for fantasy baseball 2025

The rankings for the outfielders listed here are for standard 5×5 Roto leagues (mixed universe). This format may be obsolete for those who play Points leagues, Head-to-Head, Best Ball, DFS or sim games. I try to note where format makes a difference, but it’s called “standard” for a reason, and we have to start somewhere.

These rankings are for 2025 only. I ranked the players at the position they played the most but tried to note when they qualify elsewhere — and often, it makes more sense to draft them elsewhere.

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1. Aaron Judge, NYY

Of all the thunderbats through the years, I think Judge swings the most thunderous of them all. He probably will not be as good in 2025, but so what? Even if he declines, Judge is the favorite to hit the most home runs. He makes a strong case to be the No. 1 pick of 2025.

2. Juan Soto, NYM

Soto’s value might take a little hit in his new home park (though he’s hit well at Citi Field). Otherwise, I think it’s safe to ignore the customary prohibition against the first year of a big contract with a new team. As long as Soto doesn’t lapse into excess passivity, which he hasn’t since about the middle of 2023, he is flat-out guaranteed four excellent category contributions and a few stolen bases. I consider it sloth to assume Soto’s batting average will regress when he clearly has the skills to hit .330.

It may take diehard Mets fans — who want to win with Daniel Murphy, Mookie Wilson and Buddy Harrelson — time to warm up to Soto, but that won’t hurt his numbers.

3. Corbin Carroll, ARI

Carroll rebounded from his first-half swoon in 2024 and gets a solid B grade for the season. Not what his first-round believers were hoping for, he still didn’t devestate managers. I could have had Carroll at pick No. 7 in my NFBC Main Event draft last year, but in a very close call, I opted for Kyle Tucker. Tucker was destroying Carroll until Tucker disappeared for three months with an … injury. Maybe you sense my bitterness. Carroll’s elite speed and 22-HR power are intact, and I want a player who has scored 237 Runs in the past two years.

4. Yordan Alvarez, HOU

Alvarez has another season in 2024, even though he missed 15 games. He still has a strong case as the best four-category hitter in today’s game. At the point where he’s going, I’d flip a coin and take Alvarez or Vlad Jr.

In 12-teamers, you can probably get them both, and I can’t think of a better way to start a fantasy team in any format. Those who picked before you will have great players, but they can’t get two of the Top 5 four-cat hitters. You can and, pretty much, must.

I might have a different opinion if there were a clear No. 1 starting pitcher. But there isn’t this year. There isn’t much bettable difference between 2025 top dog Paul Skenes and my No. 10 SP, Dylan Cease.

5. Fernando Tatis Jr., SD

Tatis is due to break out with another first-round season, which (I guess) is why his ADP is 9 — yet he has never played more than 141 games. While Petco Park is not the pitcher’s paradise it once was, it does hitters no favors, and I wouldn’t take him so early. I’ll trade his stolen bases for the more solidly elite four categories of Vlad Jr. or Alvarez.

6. Julio Rodriguez, SEA

Given the stability of his numbers and home park, a reasonable expectation is more of the same, with a production uptick (due to bad luck in 2024). However, at age 24, he will almost certainly beat the ballpark at least once in the next few years. Maybe the play is to hold off this year, let him fall a round or two, and then pounce. Even with the anticipated uptick, he’s still in a weak lineup, which worries me in the first round. But then I said the same thing last year about José Ramirez.

7. Jackson Chourio, MIL

A .916 second-half OPS at the age of 20 sets off skyrockets in my world. He seems to have his head on straight. Chourio could be the best player in the game this year — his manifest skills are close. It’s not bettable that he’ll be quite that good, but as the seventh-best outfielder, he’s a sure thing.

8. Jarren Duran, BOS

Duran led the league in doubles and triples, the first time someone has done that since Cesar Tovar in 1970. Only three players have ever done this more than once: Honus Wagner (1900, 1908), Ty Cobb (1908, 1911, 1917) and Stan Musial (1943, 1946, 1948, 1949). Duran blew away the doubts. He still needs work against lefties but was far from useless and should get a little better. Chances are he just had his best season, but he should produce only slightly less for the next few years. Maybe I’m wrong, and the doubles turn into home runs — sure, I can see that, it’s just that Duran is already 28, and the pull to the middle is strong.

9. Kyle Tucker, CHC

I’m not ranking him higher until I understand why the Astros traded him. The idea in baseball is to have players like Tucker, not trade them. The Astros surely know this and traded him anyway. Reading between the lines, and I could be projecting, I think they were mighty mad he missed three months with a hit-by-pitch. I saw the play — he didn’t even look like he would leave the game. After he finally came back, he only attempted one SB.

Last year, I thought Tucker was the best conservative play on the board after Ronald Acuña. It worked for a while but ultimately didn’t, and without more assurance of stolen bases, I don’t consider him a comfortable first-rounder. The public disagrees, as his ADP is 8.

10. Michael Harris II, ATL

Harris finished 2024 strong, and that’s all we needed to see. His sprint speed and running game were off, probably because of his hamstring issue. Still only 24, Harris is an established major league star, and I’m happy to get him a round after Duran.

11. Jackson Merrill, SD

Merrill’s early ADP is 30. I get it. He looked better and figures to be a five-category contributor. He has no margin for error at that level, and there is a fair chance Merrill will see an AVG decline due to his Chase% (34.4). He’ll likely have a mild decline in AVG but be a little better in all other categories, which probably means Merrill will earn out at the price.

12. James Wood, WAS

Wood may blow right by my ranking, but I’m betting on a little bit better rather than a lot better. The guys just below him were similarly well-regarded in their day.

13. Jazz Chisholm Jr., NYY

Chisholm also qualifies at third base. The excitement is wholly understandable: He hit 24 home runs and stole 40 bases with a decent BA, and he’s now in a great lineup all year. But, as a second-rounder, he better do all that again, with better production than 74/73. Sure, it’s possible, but it’s not bettable to me. He’s undisciplined and is essentially a middle-of-the-zone hitter — enough to be good but not great. Here again, the market does not share my view.

14. Luis Robert, CWS

Robert has fallen from favor in mixed leagues — down to an ADP of 84 after an ADP of 32 last year. He should fall, but not that far in leagues with a decent supply of replacement talent. It’s AL-only leagues where you want to avoid Robert, as he has yet to play more than 145 games and has averaged 103 games the past four years. There’s been trade talk, but unless it’s to Seattle or San Francisco, a trade would probably help.

15. Ronald Acuña, ATL

Presumably, he was about to hit a bunch of home runs when he went down with an ACL injury. He hits homers but slugged just .356 with 15 RBI in 49 games. That’s not a No. 1 pick. The previous year’s first pick is rarely the best player the following year — these days, anyway. There are too many legitimate candidates — picking the right guy is more luck than anything else. Nobody knew Shohei Othani would be the best in 2024, and he probably won’t be this year, although with the range and extent of Ohtani’s talents, it’s a distinct possibility.

Truist Park went from increasing home runs by 19% in 2023 to depressing them by 12% in 2024. As far as I can tell, no changes were made. A swing that is so large is rare indeed, but if it’s real, then the reduced totals are the new baseline. Still, I don’t think this is a major blow to Acuña’s place in our hearts, because 1.) he’s still going to hit a lot of home runs, 2.) his steals are his biggest contribution, and 3.) his total value will be more about where he falls in his AVG spectrum of, say, .260 to .330. Call it .285.

The latest rumblings are that he might not be ready at the start of the regular season. If that’s true, he’s not making my team this year. You can take him and beat me, no doubt, but I am not starting the season with a lopsided foundation. My players will miss time enough. There is the additional fear, if his knees are acting up — he’s had ACL surgery on both — that Acuña runs much less. Consider this ranking as simple respect for the player, but I won’t even consider him until 50 players are gone.

16. Mike Trout, LAA

People seem to forget he’s Mike Trout. Maybe bad luck hangs like a black cloud over him, but he’s still Mike Trout, hitting home runs with the best of them and as fast as ever. I say better luck will blow the cloud away. Maybe I’m irrational, but I don’t think bad luck is a quantifiable force, so the correct bet is on no luck at all. Therefore, I accept the gift of Trout before his current ADP of 137. He’s also almost a must in Best Ball leagues, where the risk is less and the reward automatic when he’s on the field. In those leagues, his ADP is 95, which tells you Best Ballers know what they’re doing.

17. Wyatt Langford, TEX

The usual prospect overhype caused the usual prospect overbidding for Langford last season. Sure, instant stardom happens every year, but early struggles of various sorts and degrees are much more the norm. I’m not saying there aren’t exceptions, but no matter how rosy my projection is, I’m not paying a high price for someone who has never played a major league game.

This year is another story. Langford established himself at age 22 and finished strong — grounds for improvement right there. He hit a lot of fly balls (41.6%) with 43.8% Hard Hits, but just 9.9% of those fly balls were home runs, which seems unlucky. The combination of better and luckier appeals to me.

18. Christian Yelich, MIL

After a decade of lower back woes, Yelich finally had surgery in August, which (as far as I can tell) is his first. He made his first appearance in the outfield this spring on March 5. That said, don’t be surprised if he DHs more this year, which might keep him healthy. But do back problems ever really go away? He’s a better play in shallower leagues.

19. Lawrence Butler, ATH

The Butler hype machine is revving up for a good reason. His speed rates barely above average (58th percentile), but he went 18-for-18 stealing in the majors and has enjoyed 86% success as a pro. The power is real, with five of his 22 HRs to the left of center field. His strikeouts aren’t terrible, he delivered a strong second half (.898 OPS), and he’s moving to a favorable home park. The hype train often whizzes by me, but I’ll bid to the high $20s in a mixed league.

20. Brenton Doyle, COL

The most improved hitter in the game or this year’s Nolan Jones? How about smack dab in the middle? Doyle improved his Ks dramatically from 35% to 25.5%, with slightly better swing decisions, and his Sw/Str also improved from 17.5% to 13.9%. His Hard Hits jumped from 35% to 41%, and he used the whole field more with more line drives and fly balls (up from a combined 53.1% to 59%). That’s a recipe, and continued success is definitely the bet, but a 25.5% K rate is still too high, and Coors cuts Ks by about 15%. A .260/.317/.446 slash is nothing special for a Colorado player. Yes, he has great speed, and 30+ bags are his due, but Doyle is not a great hitter.

21. Spencer Steer, CIN

Steer’s expected AVG regression was likely too extreme. Nothing changed in his contact, and his hard hits were actually up a bit. Steer had a lot of trouble with breaking balls and changeups from left-handed pitchers, which may be a continuing problem, but he hits righties, and there are a lot more of them. I think he’s at least a .250 hitter. With his 73rd-percentile speed and 87% success rate, 20 SBs are bankable, with 30 quite possible. Also, he qualifies at first base.

22. Bryan Reynolds, PIT

Reynolds is rock solid, and anyone who maintains consistency at his level is capable of a big year. Given a healthy campaign, he is highly unlikely to turn in a small year.

23. Seiya Suzuki, CHC

Suzuki doesn’t chase, but he takes a lot of strikes, which is why he strikes out so much with a low swing-and-miss rate; therefore, he’s limited. But he’s also consistent at helpful levels and has the speed to steal many more bases, which is not bettable, but at least it shores up his baseline. Consistency does not rule out upside, far from it. He seems to miss time every year, but he’s a good building block.

24. Cody Bellinger, NYY

After ups and downs as extreme as anyone’s ever experienced, Bellinger has settled in as your basic, pretty good hitter. His contact is fine for a power hitter, although he is not selective — he makes weak contact on non-fat pitches. They will keep throwing them. The speed is still in the 77th percentile, and a rebound in SBs to the 18-20 range is likely enough. Last year, his ADP was 55, and it has fallen to about 90 after the trade — I think that’s about right.

25. Kyle Schwarber, PHI

For the record, in his past three years as a leadoff hitter, Schwarber has driven in 302 runs and has scored 318. Nothing has changed as he turns 32 in March; it’s just that his AVG was on the high side at .248. He’s more likely to hit .220 this year. If you’re in an OBP league, Schwarber moves up six slots.

26. Teoscar Hernández, LAD

Hernández is exactly the kind of player you don’t sign to a long-term contract at age 32. This is not to say Teoscar won’t be Teoscar for another year or two, and the Dodgers can afford the third year. It’s nice to be rich. Ancient wisdom suggests we bank on a little less from him in 2025.

27. Riley Greene, DET

I love Greene, but he needs work against lefties, and he takes a lot of strikes. The latter is, we hope, a fix of the will; the former, we hope, is only a matter of time. Greene is 24 this year, and I think high-average power will happen, but even if not, he will give us one without killing the other.

28. Brandon Nimmo, NYM

I expected a big AVG from him last year; instead, he hit .224. Feel free to label me a bitter old man as I double-down, but these facts agree: His hard hits remain near-elite, he neither chases nor swings and misses much, and his usual .330 BABIP fell to .267. He finally started running as his speed always implied, and this 23-24-HR thing looks fully realizable. I don’t know where he will hit in the lineup, but it will likely be among the best RBI slots for 2025.

29. Ian Happ, CHC

Any hitter is only consistent until he isn’t, but Happ backs it up under the hood, and at age 30, he should have another year or two like the past four, including the 10-15 steals.

30. Garrett Mitchell, MIL

For the life of me, I do not understand why so many teams platoon their top prospects. I guess it’s part of the broader and highly questionable baseball trend toward less and less — especially pitching, but also longer rehabs and resting hitters in the hope it will keep them healthier. (Psst, it’s not working.)

So, rather than see what Mitchell can do playing every day, the Brewers chose to utilize the services of Blake Perkins as his platoon mate. Mitchell was granted a mere 37 PAs against lefties. Milwaukee gained nothing doing this, as Perkins didn’t hit lefties better. Perkins, a .238 hitter in eight minor-league seasons, was not a prospect.

I don’t think Mitchell will improve on his (31.7%) strikeout problem, but he might, and regardless, he can put up a 20/30 season or close to it.

31. Tommy Edman, LAD

Whoever first said, “The postseason doesn’t matter for fantasy players,” is lucky to remain unknown. To be fair, the person likely meant, “Small samples are not proof of anything.” But don’t expand it into the realm of blatant falsehood. It’s false, if only because public perception is affected by postseason performance, good and bad. Knowing when public perception is wrong is a whole lot of what our games are about.

Additionally, postseason performance adds to the sample size and is against good pitching, too, especially when a player’s season has been injury-shortened as Edman’s was. Edman didn’t hit .237; he hit .265. He slugged .445, not .417 and still steals bases at will.

Dock him a notch for batting at the bottom of the order; make that maybe half a notch on the Dodgers. To compensate for the lost PAs, no one in baseball has better RBI bats behind him than the No. 9 hitter on the Dodgers.

With 18 games at shortstop, he does not qualify there in the NFBC, which is ridiculous. Edman might also get enough games in at second or third base. For now, he can be my OF3 quite happily if other managers let me, which it looks like they will. The public is not buying into his postseason. Good.

32. Anthony Santander, TOR

The public is not paying up for his 2024 season, which is wise. Perhaps you subscribe to the sensible notion that avoiding hitters in the first year of a big contract with a new team is best. While reserving the right to make exceptions, I do, but there is no exception here. Go to the lifetime numbers: .246/.307/.469.

33. Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS

There’s no reason to expect much better from Rafaela in 2025, but, by all means, expect solid power/speed from the bottom of the lineup. It’s a good lineup, so there will be at least decent production. Ideally, he’s my OF4, and I would reach to make it so, but the distinct possibility that Rafaela hits .217 in 600 ABs makes him a shaky OF3 in my book. Also, he qualifies at shortstop.

34. Adolis Garcia, TEX

You can’t hit for average over time with a steady 28% Ks, and he’s not much of an asset in the running game anymore, but he still hits the ball hard enough for 25 HRs in a decent lineup. Past his prime at 32, he still finished strong enough to expect more of the same, probably even a little better.

35. Josh Lowe, TB

Lowe had multiple injuries in 2024 (hip, hamstring, oblique). A prospect’s strikeouts are supposed to stabilize or improve, not shoot up to 31.8%. Plus, these are the Rays, who don’t even play first-round picks every day. On the other hand, Lowe is now 61-for-65 stealing in the major leagues, seems safe for 15+ HRs and is a .262 hitter in 295 games. He’s delivered weak run production for someone batting 1-5 in the order, a function of the weak Rays lineup, which doesn’t look any stronger but should get a boost from their new home park. They may have no choice but to play Lowe against all pitching. His production should add up to a neutral two categories for a winning Roto squad.

36. Lourdes Gurriel, ARI

For years, I’ve been scratching my head (you should see it), wondering why Lourdes Gurriel gets no respect. He’s never had a bad year. Sure, he’s not great, but he is good for AVG and moderate power. Yet, every year, the list of outfielders who go ahead of Gurriel is embarrassing. I mean, Jordan Walker, Esteury Ruiz and Evan Carter all went more than 100 picks higher last year. I made a mistake in my NFBC Main Event Draft by not grabbing him because I already had him on two teams and considered Starling Marte an even bigger bargain. That might have been true had Marte played more, but that’s part of the equation. Anyway, I will pounce this year if Gurriel is undervalued again. At age 31, his skills are intact, and his brother aged quite well for what it’s worth.

37. Nick Castellanos, PHI

Castellanos had a little bit of a down year in 2024, but not as down as many (including me) expected. He chases too much, but then his hot zone is down-and-away. Every pitcher in the world will try down-and-away against every batter he faces, a statement that is close to absolutely true. And for all his free-swinging, Castellanos’ Ks are right around the MLB average. At age 33, there’s been no real sign of decline.

38. Heliot Ramos, SF

He’s daily fantasy gold against a lefty and a bad bullpen on the road, which sums up why I’m not bidding more for Ramos in Roto. The park will again rob him of 7 to 8 home runs, and his .673 OPS against righties needs a lot of work. He’s got a hit tool despite the 26.1% Ks, and at age 25, growth is possible — he’s doubtful to flop.

39. Victor Robles, SEA

Robles was my last reserve pick in the NFBC Main Event last year, but before you declare me a genius, I dropped him when he went on the IL in April. He hit .307 but was hitting .122 when he was traded to Seattle. His contact wasn’t as good as in 2023, but it was still not bad at all at 18% Ks, and that’s with the T-Mobile Park effect — he’s still there. He had a lofty .370 BABIP, but it was .360 in 2023, and the odds are it will be down a little but not a lot.

His sprint speed has been way down for two years, but so what? He stole 34 bases in 77 games and was caught twice. Robles is not a big walker, but he’s not allergic to walks, and he has now hit .305 in his past 127 games. This doesn’t guarantee he will hit .290 — he’s still a bit too aggressive and has the tough home park, but it pretty much proves he’ll hit .265. He’s the leadoff hitter and a good three-category building block. The only caveat is the same as with anyone with his profile — you don’t want two of him, not to start the season anyway. Home runs are too precious.

40. Michael Conforto, LAD

In two seasons with the Giants, Conforto hit 26 home runs on the road and 9 at home. Why they pursue left-handed power is a mystery. Conforto handles lefties, and the Dodgers say they will play him every day. That makes his current ADP of 281, the 69th outfielder off the board, a stone steal. I will be shocked if he’s not going 80 slots higher by draft day.

41. Parker Meadows, DET

Meadows’ abysmal start was strikeout-driven, but after his return, he cut his Ks to 20.7%, and the rest followed. He bats leadoff against righties and ninth against lefties — not great, but hardly a production liability, and with no platoon split, maybe they’ll keep him up top. His 93rd-percentile sprint speed means Meadows could steal 50 bases, but his history points more to 20. His power is decent but insufficient for a 46% fly-ball hitter. It severely limits his AVG potential while maxing out at about 20 HRs. To be really good, he must get stronger or develop his leadoff skills, possibly both, but one or the other is hard enough. He’s a terrific center fielder with a decent fantasy floor.

42. Jacob Young, WAS

Young doesn’t walk much but doesn’t chase too much either, and his 7.2% Sw/Str is quite good, although you want even better from a speedster. Likewise, 52.6% ground balls is good, but 60% would be better. He had 11 bunt hits, and he does use the whole ballpark. It’s hard to imagine Young hitting under .250 and easy to imagine him hitting .280, which means 40+ SBs. His defense keeps him in the lineup, although he’s probably batting ninth. If you need speed late, don’t wait too long.

43. Steven Kwan, CLE

Kwan’s a good hitter, and it’s nice to see the 14 HRs, but his speed is now below average, and even last year’s 12 SBs may not be repeatable. He gets a Runs boost from batting leadoff but takes an RBI hit from the weak bottom of the order in Cleveland. He has value, but his current ADP of 159 is too high.

44. Jorge Soler, LAA

Soler is a tough bid given his durability issues and age (33), but he’s shown no obvious loss of skill, and he’s not quite a one-trick pony — he hits some doubles. He’s not in a great lineup, but it’s a lot better with Mike Trout in it, and Soler should have plenty of RBI chances, if fewer chances to be driven in.

45. George Springer, TOR

Springer was notably consistent until suddenly, he wasn’t. His HH were down a little, and his BABIP was down a lot, but he still makes excellent swing decisions, so I’d bet on a bounce-back rather than continued decline. This is a minority viewpoint — his ADP has fallen to 240 from 120 last year. It looks like he’ll be my OF4 on several squads.

46. JJ Bleday, ATH

Bleday kept his head above water, cutting his Ks and clubbing 43 doubles. Moving to a park should only help. Bleday should be a minor mixed-league asset at a decent price. He’s worth a little chase in AL leagues.

47. Jake McCarthy, ARI

I have him higher than tout le monde, but .285 is not his AVG ceiling by any means, nor are 30 SBs. His power is occasional, but not nothing, and he should bat no lower than sixth (possibly higher). They played him against most lefties, and he hit .284 with a .340 OBP. He’s a gift at his current ADP of 228.

48. Randy Arozarena, SEA

Arozarena takes his walks, but his Ks keep getting worse. He gets caught stealing a lot (42 times the past four years) and moved from an unfavorable home park to a worse one. He’s arguable as an OF4, but I won’t be reaching.

49. Cedric Mullins, BAL

They know Mullins is a platoon player by now, plus he’s not at the top of the lineup anymore, but he’s good for 15/25 if you can cover his AVG.

50. Jurickson Profar, ATL

You tell me. Just when you entertain the notion that you have baseball sussed, Jurickson Profar is there to confound you. After hitting .236 for the Rockies, he was picked off the scrap heap to put up a $27 fantasy season for the Padres, and that’s the latest chapter of his career. He’s been unfathomable since soon after he came up as an uber-prospect in 2012. My rule is simple: If I don’t understand, I don’t stick my neck out. So, yes, you can beat me with Profar and still get a bargain.

51. Kerry Carpenter, DET

The 25.6% Ks do not align with his .276 lifetime AVG, but he’s only had 868 PAs. His .330 career BABIP is something of an explanation, and that is stable. Any AVG drop-off should not go much below .250, which is something of a Roto magic number these days. But the Tigers only gave Carpenter 32 PAs against lefties. As they are now contenders, Detroit is likelier to find Carpenter a platoon-mate rather than play him daily. Given a full-time shot, I would absolutely take him higher, but as matters stand, even an OF4 is stretching it.

52. Dylan Crews, WAS

Crews is risky, but he ran like he wanted to steal 50 bases. I’m not quite there yet with his average or power, but he played every day in the final month, and producing just a 10% Sw/Str is a distinct positive. He also played fine defense, which gives Crews extra leeway. He’s the kind of guy you want somewhere but not everywhere. I’d rather take my shot in a mixed league, and in a 12-team, or even 10-team league, at that.

53. Evan Carter, TEX

Mistake: I let my admiration for Carter’s elite speed and defense, and his early hitting success, cloud what should have been my good sense when seeing his 32% Ks. Carter improved to 26.5%, which is still not good, but he’s 22 years old and learning in the majors. Barring a complete collapse, the Rangers must play him, and he does offer great defense. Given Carter has not exploited his speed — a big part of that is manager Bruce Bochy — he’s not likely to cause a frenzy at draft tables. With so much talent, he can explode at any time, and while it’s not bettable this year, modest improvement is likely enough.

54. Jasson Dominguez, NYY

Hit a bump in the road in 2024, but he did what he had to do in 44 Triple-A games: .309/.368/.480 with 15 SBs. Just turning 22, he needs work on his contact (like everyone else). Not a true burner despite his excellent SB totals, which may raise doubts the Yanks will let him run, but so far they have (6 SBs in 26 major league games). His power is, so far, good, not great. Given his broad range of skills (also takes his walks), I will assume he plays and bid Dominguez as an average hitter.

55. Byron Buxton, MIN

According to the Similarity Scores at baseball-reference.com, Buxton’s closest comp is … Mitch Haniger? Why? Because of weird injuries? The second-closest is Anthony Santander — again, not a name that springs to mind like, for instance, former Red Eric Davis, who is nowhere to be found. I guess it’s because Buxton hasn’t approached Davis in actual accomplishments.

At what point do you take the chance? Not in an AL league, where he’s too hard to replace. His sprint speed remains elite, but he hasn’t stolen 10+ bases since 2019, and his career high is 29. Buxton’s power is more manifest. Besides whether he can make it to the field, the key is his AVG, and last year’s .279 mark was on the high end for a high-K/high-fly-ball hitter. I can’t reach for him. If power-challenged at the table, a position I try hard to avoid, I might take a shot at Buxton as my OF3. But I prefer him as my OF5, so I won’t get him.

56. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC

Elite speed and defense will keep Crow-Armstrong in the lineup, but his bat remains a question mark. He made second-half strides, including a smoking .933 OPS in August. Playing 2025 at age 23, Crow-Armstrong has plenty of room for growth, but as of now, he’s a No. 9 hitter who makes mistakes.

57. Brendan Donovan, STL

Donovan also qualifies at second base. He’s not really a platoon player since his defensive versatility gets him into almost every game. He’s not great at anything but hits for average with some power and the odd steal, which qualifies him as your basic boring regular. That is not an insult, but he’s more of a hole-filler in mixed leagues, barring the breakout that is possible but not expected at age 28.

58. Max Kepler, PHI

Kepler’s solid when on the field and should get a little boost in Philadelphia, but he’s seen the IL time every year since 2018. It’s also an open question whether Kepler should be a platoon player, though he has improved against lefties.

I find it alarming that Kepler is my No. 58 outfielder. Outfield is the really scarce position when you have to roster five. I am highly uncomfortable with a platoon player as my OF4 in a 15-teamer, though I love guys like Kepler as reserve picks in Best Ball formats.

59. Jung Hoo Lee, SF

He should be fully recovered from surgery on his non-throwing shoulder. Lee played close enough to his projections for 37 games, and there’s no reason he can’t hit .280 with 10 home runs and 15 steals batting leadoff.

60. Alec Burleson, STL

I may have him too low, as he’s high-average power against a righty. But they gave him 142 PAs against lefties, and Burleson responded with a .514 OPS. That is very far from respectable, and I fear he won’t play as much this year. At age 26, growth is hardly impossible. Burleson is a pretty good OF5 in mixed leagues.

61. Jose Siri, NYM

It’s a big if, but Siri’s 20% Sw/Str would drop considerably if he swung at fewer balls and more strikes. It’s true that he also takes more than his share of strikes. There has to be a way to work on his eye-to-ball. He’s 29, which is probably too late to change much, but even a little would go a long way with his power and speed. The depth chart suggests the Mets will bat him ninth and play him in center field every day, rather than Siri playing the Harrison Bader-platoon/late-defense role.

You must have plenty of batting average on your roster if you take Siri, but I can see it working. Siri stole six bases in his first nine games last year, but just eight more all year. This suggests a leg injury (not reported anywhere), but he boasts 99th-percentile speed.

Maybe the best place to roster Siri is way late on a Best Ball team. Those are 10-team mixed leagues with 42-man rosters, with “points” scoring in weekly increments. You want explosive power hitters because they often have big weeks. They also often have small, not to say invisible, weeks, and that’s why you draft a whole team of them and tag-team it. I also like Siri in NL leagues because I like players who figure to play more this year.

62. Wilyer Abreu, BOS

He hit .253, which broke down to .274 in his complete games and .213 when jerked around (note my disparaging tone, although he didn’t hit lefties a lick). The Sox still don’t know if he can do more than platoon, which, given his stellar glove and arm, is worth finding out. Playing every day might be all he needs to improve his contact, which is all he has to do to become a star. For us, he’s a platoon player until proven otherwise, yet I would certainly take Abreu as my OF5 in mixed leagues.

63. Daulton Varsho, TOR

Varsho offers good power and very good speed, but 53% fly balls without a lot of Hard Hits (33.3%) is a bad combo, and piling on is a 27% K rate, despite making good swing decisions. Maybe something will change, but the trends say no.

64. Luke Raley, SEA

He also qualifies at first base. There’s not a full sample for Raley since he is a platoon player, so how seriously should we take his freakish home/road split? I mean, T-Mobile is maybe the worst hitter’s park in baseball, right with Oracle, and yet his home OPS was .901 compared to just .666 on the road. Normally, I place much more weight on road stats, compiled, as they are, in different ballparks, while acknowledging a basic 10% home edge. So .666 indeed looks sinister, but then .901 at home is mighty impressive, even in 229 PAs. It’s probably a matter of averaging them out, which means Raley will hit some home runs, and his 90th-percentile speed means he could triple his SBs, though that is, of course, not bettable. What argues against Raley is that he swings and misses a lot (17%), yet he doesn’t chase much (27.5% O-zone swings). It’s not an easy call here.

65. Jesus Sanchez, MIA

They finally let Sanchez play a little against lefties — not too much, mind you, not with Cristian Pache and Avisail Garcia around! But, alas, Sanchez did nothing against them. He’s a pretty good hitter against a righty, and it’s nice to see him finally using his speed.

66. Sal Frelick, MIL

The Brewers showed some willingness to play Frelick against lefties (94 PAs). It would show a real lack of organizational self-confidence to make a first-round pick a platoon player, but I guess that doesn’t apply if a different front office is making the decision. Anyway, Frelick makes excellent contact, but his walk rate fell from 12.6% to 7.4%, and he’s not even trying to hit for power. He still has room to grow at age 25 in April, but the lack of power puts a low cap on him.

67. Andrew Benintendi, CWS

He will fall so far that Benintendi almost forces us to take him. Two things: 1.) his xAVG on changeups was .253, but he actually hit .174 against them, and 2.) he quietly slugged .502 in the second half with 13 HRs. The latter shows that any talk of the crippling psychological effects of playing for a bad team is horse dung. With his broken hand making him questionable for opening day, he’s definitely no more than a reserve pick. When he is healthy, he could be a decent OF5.

68. Lane Thomas, CLE

Thomas has a lifetime .680 OPS against righties. He has great speed (93rd-percentile), but just 71% SB success, and he’s not really a center fielder. I don’t see another 528 PAs here, not when 378 makes a lot more sense for a contending team with questionable hitting.

69. Matt Wallner, MIN

The Twins always sign their own. When in doubt, they take the Minnesota boy. They gave Wallner a few starts against lefties, and he did little, but since his OPS against righties was .953, he’s got a PA floor of about 450. It’s a battle of extremes — excellent quality vs. poor quantity of contact. Plus, he’s a fly-ball hitter, so slumps will happen. He makes good swing decisions but still produced 17.4% swinging strikes — a little unnerving, yet his power is serious. It’s a tough call, and I’m leaning against Wallner for this year, but he could hit 37 home runs.

70. Jhonkensy Noel, CLE

The market isn’t taking Noel seriously, with an early ADP of 547. That makes him nearly a perfect mixed-league reserve. Cheap power is beautiful, and this guy has it. Of course, he strikes out too much, but he slugged .618 against breaking balls, showing weakness only against changeups. He’s only 23, and he hasn’t seen a lot of major-league changeups. The Guardians very much need a big power bat, and Noel is, perhaps surprisingly, an asset in right field.

71. Colton Cowser, BAL

The stat OPS+ contains a home park adjustment. This is wildly inappropriate when a home park hurts righty power but helps lefty power. Thus, Cowser’s slash of .242/.321/.447 calculates as 23% above average, which is nonsense, especially for a corner outfielder (and no adjustment is made for that). According to OPS+, Cowser was a little better than Manny Machado and was even with Pete Alonso. I sure hope the people at my draft table believe that. Somehow, I don’t think they will.

Anyway, they played him against lefties, and his OPS was .661. A contender will not tolerate that for long. I’m not bidding for him as a full-time player.

72. Seth Brown, ATH

Brown is past his prime at 32 and strictly platooned — but it’s the strong side, and his new home park should give up a few extra home runs.

73. Lars Nootbaar, STL

It seems an established fact that no Cardinals outfielder is ever a full-time player. I try to think along with them. I can’t. Therefore, I pass on them unless they are ridiculous bargains.

74. Tyler O’Neill, BAL

At first, I scratched my head, wondering why the O’s would want O’Neill. Then it struck me: they’re going to platoon him. Then I thought, “But he gets hurt all the time.” Maybe they figure he’s that much easier to replace. In other words, he’s a luxury move, and after all, O’Neill is a mighty force against lefties, and they are moving the left-field wall in. Still, you can’t bid much for him.

75. Leody Taveras, TEX

Taveras’ fly-ball rate spiked, and his AVG plummeted while hitting fewer home runs — not a good sign for someone several years into a career. However, Taveras is only 26 and could, in theory, still become Victor Robles (if not Wee Willie Keeler). His manager let him run more — gee, Bruce Bochy, watch that limb, the MLB success rate was down to 79%! There’s no reason to reach, but Taveras is not a bad reserve pick in mixed leagues.

76. Johan Rojas, PHI

The Phillies should bat him ninth and play him in center field every day. His chance to be a good major-league player is to improve his pretty good contact, and to do that, he needs reps. He’s as fast as anybody and is a great center fielder on a team that definitely needs great fielders. But they may continue the platoon/pinch-runner/defensive replacement thing, even though Rojas has a reverse platoon split in his 527 PAs. He’s an excellent mixed-league reserve, and his 552 ADP says you can wait a long time.

77. MJ Melendez, KC

Melendez remains vulnerable up and in against both righties and lefties, plus he’s a bad outfielder. The Royals are contenders, but if they want to win, either Melendez gets better, or they need an upgrade in left field.

Prospects with 2025 prospects

Roman Anthony, BOS

Yes, it’s impressive he walked just as often as he struck out (18.9%) in Triple A, at the age of 20. This does not mean Anthony is ready for the majors, as 18.9% can easily move 10 points in the opposite direction. His Double-A rates were much less impressive in more than twice as many PAs — 12.8% walks and 25.5% Ks. Furthermore, as an extreme ground-ball hitter, Anthony is not likely to reach 20 home runs, and he runs well but is not a true burner. What he may well do is hit for average with power/speed marks of 12/12 or 18/18 — somewhere in there. That’s a nice player if he plays, which is not terribly likely at the start of the season. A hot spring might land him a job, but again, that does not mean he’s ready for it. I don’t know where to rank Anthony until I see him face major-league pitchers trying to get him out. Alas, this is not likely to be possible, so he’s a reserve pick for now.

Chase DeLauter, CLE

He battled injuries for the second year in a row, then tore up the Arizona Fall League in a brief appearance, which should be expected but is reassuring. More of a Michael Brantley type at this time, but at age 23, DeLauter could start turning the doubles into home runs. It would seem the Tribe of Guardians has left a slot open in right field, which Will Brennan currently occupies. DeLauter’s contact indicates he can help us a little across the board.

Blake Dunn, CIN

Dunn will probably strike out too much, but if not, this guy has Roto stud potential. He has a 91% SB success rate as a pro with 53 SBs per 150 games and 94th-percentile sprint speed, and he also showed power in 2023 with 23 HRs in 124 games. That regressed last year, but Dunn seems just the type to get a boost at the Great American Ball Park. The Reds rather desperately need a centerfielder. He’s a must-add to the spring watchlist and at least a reserve pick in mixed leagues.

Gustavo Campero, LAA

Campero’s not on prospect lists, but the Angels called him up in his age 26 season, and he played 13 games without disgracing himself. That counts for something. He was a catcher, but they’ve given up on that. He owns a minor-league slash line of .289/.388/.488 with 85 SBs in 292 games. A switch-hitter, Campero’s a spring watch for sure.

Braden Montgomery, CWS

Montgomery was part of the Garrett Crochet package. He was the 12th pick in last year’s MLB draft but broke his ankle and did not play in the minors. He’s a big lefty bat — that’s the hope, at least. He figures to struggle with strikeouts at first, but Montgomery will be up soon after he shows something.

Justin Crawford, PHI

Justin is Carl’s son and has a very similar profile to his father. He cut his GB rate and hit for some power, but he still had over 60% ground balls. His contact also improved from pretty good to good. He’s probably a year away, but he could come fast, and we’re talking league-leading SB potential.

(Top photo of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto: Jason Miller/Getty Images)