Rookie Report: First-year players set to deliver in fantasy playoffs and bring home championships

Instead of another broad look at the rookie class, I want to drill down on impact. Which first-year players are actually going to decide fantasy championships over the next three weeks. Which rookies are going to be in starting lineups when trophies get raised and payments hit the group chat in Week 17?

These are the five rookies I expect to have the biggest impact on crowning fantasy championships three weeks from now, and why.

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Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This one is tough and I know fantasy managers do not want to hear it right now because of how bad Egbuka has been. Since Week 6, he has averaged less than 10 fantasy points per game and it has felt like he is sinking your lineup every time you click start. He has absolutely left some plays on the field himself, but he is still getting the opportunity. If we are talking about rookies who are going to impact fantasy football championships three weeks from now, Egbuka still belongs on that list even if it does not feel like it today.

And yes, Baker Mayfield has to play better. This is not just an Egbuka thing. Baker has not been good this season. But my goodness, this playoff schedule for Tampa Bay is as good as it gets. Falcons, Panthers and Dolphins, three defenses that can absolutely be had through the air. When you zoom out and look at the usage, the raw data still screams you do not bench this dude. Egbuka is seventh in the NFL in total targets, top 15 in target share and top 10 in routes run. He is sixth in air yards, eighth in red-zone targets and sixth in deep targets.

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If there is an obvious star on your roster, you roll with that star, but this level of volume on this schedule is exactly the kind of usage that can swing fantasy playoffs. Egbuka still has the talent and opportunity to make a massive championship impact — even with Mike Evans looking like he’ll return to action this week.

TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots

Big Hendo finally showed us in Q3 why we held on through the early season mess. He went nuclear for a two-week stretch in November with five total touchdowns, then cooled off before the bye with two straight games under 100 total yards and no scores. That lull plus Rhamondre Stevenson’s return has people nervous, but the usage still points to Henderson being on a lot of championship rosters.

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In Rhamondre’s first game back, Henderson handled 18 carries to Stevenson’s six. The next week before the, bye it was 12 carries for Rhamondre and 11 for Henderson, with both backs earning three receptions. That is basically a split, which is fine when you are attached to one of the best offenses in football led by potential MVP candidate Drake Maye, who is playing at a historic clip from an efficiency standpoint at quarterback. We know New England trusts Henderson in high-leverage situations and we know he has the juice to flip a matchup on one drive.

The playoff schedule lines up: Bills, Ravens and then the Jets in Week 17. That Jets matchup should have every manager’s attention. The last time Henderson saw New York, he hung three touchdowns in a true breakout game. You are not chasing that single performance, but it is a reminder of what his ceiling looks like even with Rhamondre active. The fear from September is long gone. We know what he is in this backfield and the impact that he can make on any given week, any given play, any given touch is absolutely worthy of having the biggest impact on crowning a fantasy championship.

Woody Marks, RB, Houston Texans

Another rookie I expect to see on a ton of championship rosters is Woody Marks. He took an absolute beating in that Kansas City game yet Houston needed every one of those 26 rush attempts and he answered the call. This rookie out of USC is not the biggest back on the field but he runs like he does not know that. With Nick Chubb banged up and status unknown, there is even more room for Marks to own this backfield the rest of the way.

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The volume has quietly been rock solid. Over his last 10 games, he has hit double-digit carries nine times. Since Week 10, he has not dipped below 14 rush attempts in a single outing. He only has one rushing touchdown over that stretch and he has not been heavily featured as a receiver, which might make the weekly box scores feel a little underwhelming. The reality is he is getting pure bell-cow work on a team that wants to play through its defense and run game.

Now look at the playoff schedule: Cardinals, Raiders and Chargers. We just watched Saquon Barkley rip through that Chargers front. Houston’s defense is good enough to keep the offense in positive scripts which means a whole lot of Marks on the ground as the team tries to close out wins and lock up the AFC South. Marks is set up to be that rookie back you plug into the RB2 or flex spot every week and do not think twice. When the dust settles after Week 17, do not be surprised when you see Woody Marks sitting in more than a few fantasy championship lineups.

Luther Burden III, WR, Chicago Bears

On paper, you probably do not want any rookie wideout walking into playoff matchups against the Browns, Packers and 49ers. In most cases, you would just stay away. Luther Burden III is not that type of rookie. With Rome Odunze sidelined on a week-to-week timeline and Chicago fighting for its playoff life, Burden is about to find out what it looks like to be the grown man in the room.

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DJ Moore just turned in a one-catch, minus-4 yard performance in a must-win game against Green Bay. The rushing attack is doing its job. The missing piece is a perimeter playmaker defenses actually fear. Over the last four games, Burden has quietly become that guy. At least five targets in every game. At least three receptions in every game. A carry in every game. Explosive plays every week. Chicago is already designing touches for him inside and out because he brings speed this receiver room badly needs.

The Bears went from the top of the NFC to hanging onto a wild-card spot and they know it. They have to keep their foot on the gas to hold off Detroit and have a chance of catching Green Bay. That means leaning on the player who can flip a drive in one snap. Burden might not be as polished as Moore yet, but he is Chicago’s most dynamic weapon. He is the type of rookie wide receiver that can absolutely bring significant impact to your lineup based on the offense, his skill set and the opportunity available to him.

Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Cleveland Browns

I do not know if there will be a more impactful player at his position on fantasy football championship rosters than Harold Fannin Jr. The thing with Fannin is, the usage has been steady all year. He has not dipped below two receptions in any matchup this season and he has been under five targets only twice. That matters at tight end, where most people are praying for one or two usable weeks.

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Now we finally get to see what it looks like when the offense actually runs through him. With Shedeur Sanders under center, this Browns unit looks functional. Not a juggernaut, not Mahomes and Kelce but competent enough to support a difference-maker at tight end. On the season, in half-PPR scoring per game, Fannin is sitting at TE11. If you zoom into the last three games with Sanders, he jumps to TE4, one of only five tight ends averaging double-digit half-PPR points over that stretch.

Over the last three weeks, you see names like Colby Parkinson and Brenton Strange inside the top-10 TEs. In that landscape, a rookie who has locked in weekly targets, red-zone work and a young quarterback who clearly trusts him is exactly what you want to roll out through the fantasy playoffs. With matchups against the Bears, Bills and a hot-and-cold Steelers defense on deck, Fannin is live to be a tight end everyone is talking about when trophies get handed out.