The Fantasy Footballers’ Bold Predictions for 2024

Heading into the NFL season, all fantasy managers have to take a stance on certain players that will either make or break their season! Andy, Mike, and Jason each plant their flag on some BOLD predictions ahead of the 2024 season to spice things up!

To hear each of the Ballers break down their bold prediction, check out the MEGALASHOW that was live in L.A. on August 24th!

Andy – Anthony Richardson Is NOT Going to Be a Top-10 QB in 2024

The bold predictions get started with a spicy take that contradicts the current ADP of a hot fantasy QB option in Anthony Richardson. While Richardson has proven that he’s an athletic monster on the field with the brief glimpse we’ve seen of him on an NFL field, he’s still a very unproven asset but is being taken in the fifth round of fantasy drafts! That’s four rounds earlier than Richardson was going as a rookie and we’ve only seen two full games of him in a Colts uniform. Andy argues that Richardson is still an unproven asset in the NFL but fantasy managers are having to pay double the draft price than in 2023.

Richardson may have the athletic ability to pop on film, but as a passer, there are still some major doubts according to Andy. Since graduating from high school, Richardson has only started 17 total games (13 at Florida and four in Indianapolis) and only attempted 477 passes. For comparison, Jayden Daniels has 55 collegiate starts under his belt!

The biggest knock on Richardson coming into the league was his inaccuracy as a passer and the fantasy community really hasn’t gotten any clear answers to if that’s something he’s been able to fix. If Richardson can’t vastly improve his accuracy as a passer, the odds are against him returning anywhere near his draft cost. In 2023, no QB in the top-10 for fantasy finished the season with a completion percentage under 64%. In fact, over the last three years, the average completion percentage for top-10 fantasy QBs is 66.6%. When you pair the inaccuracy with the four turnovers Richardson had in the two full games he played in 2023, there’s plenty of concern to go around.

If Richardson had come out of the gate in the preseason on fire, it may have made Andy less skeptical about his inability to return on the investment fantasy managers are making, but the preseason wasn’t overly encouraging. The Colts’ offense while Richardson was on the field looked rusty and Richardson even threw a pick-six in his second drive.

Overall, Andy is not a believer in the hype that surrounds Richardson despite his elite ability to run the ball.  Andy feels there are better options later in the draft that stand a better chance of hitting the top 10.

Mike – Rico Dowdle Is a Top-20 RB

The Fantasy Hitman is hanging his hat on Rico Dowdle to emerge in the Cowboys’ backfield and be a savior for fantasy managers this season. Dowdle is playing in one of the best offenses in the league and has the chance to see massive opportunity with very little competition around him in Dallas. In 2023, fantasy managers got to see a good bit of Dowdle while he shared the backfield with Tony Pollard. Last season, Dowdle finished ninth among all RBs in yards created per touch, and despite never seeing more than 35% of snaps in a game, still managed to finish as a top-24 RB in four different weeks! 

Heading into 2024, the main competition for Dowdle is 29-year-old Ezekiel Elliott who’s coming off one of his most inefficient seasons. Dallas had plenty of opportunities to address the depth in their RB room throughout the offseason, whether that was in free agency or the NFL draft, but chose to be content with Dowdle and Elliott as their main options. While there’s still plenty of ambiguity in the Cowboys’ backfield, that’s actually a plus for Dowdle. Over the past five years, 8.5 teams per year did not have a top 24 RB in ADP, but an average of five RBs from those teams finished within the top 24. The common thread for those RBs that break into the top 24 is that they’ve been a part of elite offenses!

For fantasy managers who adopt the “zero RB” or “hero RB” strategies in drafts this season, Mike is predicting that Dowdle could be the late-round RB that makes a huge impact on the outcome of your season!

Jason – Dennis Allen Is the First Coach Fired in 2024

Soap box time for Jason: Dennis Allen is the worst and he expects him to be fired after Week 5 of the NFL season.

Of all the head coaching villains in the 10-year history of The Fantasy Footballers, this may be the leading candidate as Jason’s most hated. Allen took over as head coach of the Saints after Sean Payton left the team ahead of the 2022 season. Since then, Allen has a total record of 16-18 in New Orleans and a career win percentage of just 34% dating back to his 36 games as the Raiders HC from 2012-2014. 

Jason doesn’t just have an issue with the product that Allen’s teams have put on the field, but the way he handles his players, from putting down players like RB Kendre Miller throughout the summer to throwing Jameis Winston under the bus last season when the team called an audible to get Jamaal Williams a TD in a blowout against the Falcons. 

The start of the season could be rough for the Saints, so there may be some validity to Jason’s argument. New Orleans starts the year hosting Carolina then has a tough stretch of games at Dallas, vs. Philadelphia, at Atlanta, and at Kansas City. The Saints very well could be 1-4 or 0-5 through their first five games and the pressure would have to be on for Allen to produce something miraculous or be sacked.

If Jason has his way, the fantasy community may get what they want early in the season with Allen not plaguing the league deep into the season.

Andy – The Rams Are BACK, Will Win the NFC West, and Both Puka and Kupp Will Be Top 10 WRs

Andy is back up with a big prediction for the Los Angeles Rams returning to the top of the NFC West behind top 10 WR seasons from both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp! The main portion of Andy’s argument comes from the run that the Rams went on after Kyren Williams returned to the lineup in Week 12 last season. Once Kyren was back on the field, the Rams averaged 31 points per game including five straight top-12 finishes from QB Matthew Stafford. Most importantly, the Rams won six of seven games during that stretch, and their only loss came on the road to the Ravens in overtime.

Not only is Andy excited about the Rams’ offense, but he believes the defense will be better than expected despite the departure of Aaron Donald along with a great back stretch of the season schedule. L.A. has a stretch of games in the middle of the season from Weeks 5-13 that they’re favored in every game. A great stretch like that could be exactly what sets the Rams up to overtake the division back from the 49ers!

The second part of Andy’s prediction is very fantasy-relevant – predicting both Kupp and Puka to be top 10 WRs. In recent history, it’s not overly uncommon for a team to maintain two elite WR options. Since 2018, here are the teams who had two top 12 WRs:

The teams that have had these top WR duos all had a consolidation of targets where over 50% of the team’s targets went to just those two WRs. Last season Puka and Kupp combined for 54.3% of the Rams targets (28.8% and 25.5% respectively). Overall, Andy is arguing there’s no need for fantasy managers to try to decide who’s going to be the top WR for the Rams! They’re both going to be great!

Mike – Jared Goff Is a Top-Five QB and Will Win the NFL MVP

Mike’s second bold call is that Jared Goff will not only be a top-five QB but will win the NFL’s MVP award! Let’s start with the top-five QB finish argument.

The story for Jared Goff as a fantasy asset has always been to play him at home and in a dome. Goff has now played 17 games at Ford Field over the last two seasons – a full season’s worth of games. Over those 17 games, Goff has 4,712 passing yards and 43 passing TDs so a fantasy manager would be delighted to have him starting for them week to week. Last season, six of Goff’s seven weeks as a top-12 QB came in games where he was playing indoors. In 2024, Goff will play 14 of his 17 games indoors!

Based on historical numbers for non-mobile QBs that finished inside the top five, Goff would need to throw for at least 4,700 passing yards and a TD rate higher than 6%. For reference, Goff’s TD rate indoors last season was 6.1%. Did we mention that 14 of the Lions’ 17 games will be indoors this season? If you’re worried about the other games that are outdoors, those three games that will be outdoors all have expected point totals of over 47 points. If the Lions continue their offensive momentum that fantasy managers saw last season, a top-five finish is well within his grasp!

Regarding winning the NFL MVP, a quick look at Goff checks a lot of the boxes needed to be in that conversation as well. Over the last 11 years, a QB has won the NFL MVP every single season. Those QBs have also been on a team that won 11 or more games, and 13 of the last 14 MVP winners were on a team that won their division. The Lions have an expected win total of 10.5, are favored in 13 of their 17 games, and are the betting favorites to win the NFC North. When you pair all that with the fact that the Lions will be one of the highest-scoring teams in the league again this season, Goff should have his name mentioned in the MVP race for 2024!

Jason – Josh Allen Goes From Hero to Zero

The Big Shimmy is actually predicting that Josh Allen will take a large step back in 2024. It’s pretty tough to make a real case against Allen since he’s finished as the QB1 in three of the last four seasons, and the other he finished as the QB2. However, as a passer, Allen took a step back last season with his lowest passing yards per game since 2019 and throwing an interception in 15 of 17 games.

The change to Joe Brady is one of the biggest parts of Jason’s argument against Allen. When Joe Brady took over as the Bills’ offensive coordinator, Buffalo’s offense was 31st in the league in pass rate and Allen’s passing numbers suffered declines in completion percentage, passing yards per game, and TDs per game. Possibly the biggest worry for fantasy managers is the disappearance of the big plays from the Bills’ offense with Brady as OC where they dropped from eighth in the league in 15+ yard pass plays to 20th. With the Bills completely rebuilding the WR room, this trend could continue for Allen, and taking away big plays from his fantasy production will change how many elite games he can produce on your roster. Allen will be the first-ever QB1 in ADP with all of his WRs drafted outside of the top 40 at the position.

Another worry for Jason is some regression coming Allen’s way in rushing TDs. Last season, Allen had 15 rushing TDs, the most of his career. In the previous five seasons, he never had more than nine rushing TDs. Part of Allen’s superpower is still going to be his role in the running game for Buffalo, but without elite rushing TD numbers it will be hard for him to stay at the top of the position, especially if the passing game isn’t what we’ve come to expect.

If anything, Jason is calling on fantasy managers to be willing to trade Allen once they get past the midpoint of the season. After Week 11, Buffalo is only favored in four games and has a very tough finish to the fantasy season with games at Detroit, vs. New England, and the New York Jets during the fantasy playoffs. Bear in mind, against the Jets last season, Allen had six turnovers and six sacks!

While Allen could still be useful for fantasy, drafting him as the QB1 means fantasy managers need him to finish there instead of the QB5 and there are plenty of variables that could drive his value down this season.