Game Day Breakdown

TNF Best Bets, Player Props, Parlay: 2025 Christmas Edition

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Finding the Thursday Night Football best bets this week can be tricky, but our team is here to help! We will share our analysis and expert predictions throughout the entire NFL season, including recommended TNF player props.

In a special Christmas Day edition of Thursday Night Football, three matchups highlight the calendar. It’s a full day of action, and we have picks for every game on the holiday slate. Check out our NFL Christmas Day predictions and top picks, starting in Washington and wrapping up in Kansas City.

The best NFL betting sites have a slew of Week 17 Thursday Night Football odds available for wagering on the loaded Christmas slate. The main markets, including the point spread, are on the board at most major sportsbooks.

Let’s delve into the lines and best NFL Christmas bets below! The following TNF odds for Week 17 are courtesy of Lucky Rebel:

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Betting Odds

TEAM SPREAD MONEYLINE TOTAL
Dallas Cowboys -7 (-113) -310 Over 51 (-109)
Washington Commanders +7 (-107) +240 Under 51 (-111)

The Dallas Cowboys (-310) are clear favorites to win on the road against the Washington Commanders (+240). At -310 odds, the Cowboys have a 75.6% implied probability to win outright against their divisional rivals.

However, oddsmakers aren’t confident enough to push the spread above a touchdown. With the over/under set at 51 points, this is expected to be the highest-scoring game on the Christmas schedule.

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds

TEAM SPREAD MONEYLINE TOTAL
Detroit Lions -6 (-109) -270 Over 44 (-113)
Minnesota Vikings +6 (-112) +212 Under 44 (-107)

In a must-win game, the Detroit Lions (-270) are favored to pick up the victory at U.S. Bank Stadium. They have a strong implied chance to get the win at 73%. The Lions’ playoff chances are thin, with a win required and other teams to lose over the next two weeks.

Despite injuries to the Lions’ defense, this isn’t projected to be a high-scoring contest. Currently, the over/under is posted at 44 points, which suggests that online bookies aren’t confident in Vikings’ backup QB Max Brosmer.

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds

TEAM SPREAD MONEYLINE TOTAL
Denver Broncos -13 (-110) -850 Over 36.5 (-105)
KC Chiefs +13 (-110) +550 Under 36.5 (-115)

With the Kansas City Chiefs (+550) out of playoff contention, they are massive underdogs to the Denver Broncos (-850) at home. As -850 betting favorites, the Broncos have an 89.5% implied probability to win on home field at Mile High.

Is that something you expected to see at the start of the year when looking at the schedule? Probably not. The total at 36.5 points suggests that it’s shaping up to be an ugly matchup at Arrowhead. If you want some NFL Christmas fireworks, I recommend looking elsewhere.

Lucky Rebel

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There are some key betting trends to keep in mind before placing your NFL Christmas picks!

I’ve dug through several trends for this matchup and have isolated the best to consider for each matchup.

Cowboys vs. Commanders Trends

  • The Dallas Cowboys are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their previous six games.
  • The Dallas Cowboys are 2-5 against the spread (ATS) in their previous seven games as betting favorites.
  • The Dallas Cowboys are 3-4 against the spread (ATS) in their previous seven games after a loss.
  • The Dallas Cowboys are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in their previous five games in December.
  • The Washington Commanders are 1-9 outright in their previous ten games.
  • The OVER is 4-1 in the previous five meetings between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders.

Lions vs. Vikings Trends

  • The Detroit Lions are 9-1 against the spread (ATS) in their previous ten games versus the Minnesota Vikings.
  • The Detroit Lions are 5-1 outright in their previous six games versus the Minnesota Vikings.
  • The Detroit Lions are 15-5 in their previous 20 games versus the NFC North.
  • The Detroit Lions are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in their previous six games after a loss.
  • The Minnesota Vikings are 2-6 outright in their previous eight games as an underdog.
  • The Minnesota Vikings are 3-9 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Trends

  • The Denver Broncos are 11-1 outright in their previous 12 games.
  • The Denver Broncos are 5-0 outright in their previous five games.
  • The Denver Broncos are 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in their previous eight games versus the Kansas City Chiefs.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs 0-7 against the spread (ATS) in their previous seven games.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs are 1-8 against the spread (ATS) in their previous nine games versus the AFC West.
  • The UNDER is 6-0 in the previous six Kansas City Chiefs’ games at home.

NFL Christmas Prediction and Betting Pick: Cowboys vs. Commanders

The Cowboys will look to end a three-game losing streak on the road against the Commanders. They were in the thick of the playoff race after winning three straight games from November 17 to November 27, a stretch that included victories over the Raiders, Eagles, and Chiefs.

Confidence was building in Arlington, and it looked like the Cowboys had a real shot at winning out. Three games later, they’ve thrown that all away and now enter Week 17 at 6-8-1. What motivation do they have to travel to D.C. on Christmas Day and play the Commanders?

At this point, the energy in the locker room is nearly zero, and the desire to play this game is likely low. I’m not going to claim that the 4-11 Commanders are brimming with confidence and thrilled about this matchup. However, they’ve known for a long time that there’s nothing at stake.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, are demoralized after squandering a strong chance to make the playoffs. In that respect, the Commanders are probably in a better mental space. They will have to do it with their third-string quarterback under center, though. Either Josh Johnson or Jeff Driskel could get the start.

Marcus Mariota is questionable, leaving the Commanders in a difficult position. The 39-year-old has thrown 13 touchdowns and 17 interceptions since entering the league in 2009. The younger Driskel has passed for 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions since 2018. Nevertheless, the Cowboys’ defense should leave the door open.

Dallas ranks 31st in the NFL, allowing an average of 382.7 yards per game. So whoever starts at quarterback should be at least serviceable in this matchup. The public will likely load up on the Cowboys due to the Commanders’ injuries, but I have no confidence that Dallas will care enough to show up on Christmas Day on the road.

I recommend backing the Commanders as one of your best 2025 NFL Christmas betting picks.

NFL Christmas Prediction and Betting Pick: Lions vs. Vikings

The Detroit Lions head to Minnesota with faint playoff hopes, but they aren’t statistically out yet. For the Lions to clinch a spot in the postseason, they’ll have to win both and the Packers lose both games. After blowing a late lead against the Bears, the Packers have to beat the Ravens or Vikings.

That isn’t necessarily a given, so the Lions can’t take their eyes off the prize yet. They’re coming off a hard-fought 29-24 final to the Pittsburgh Steelers at home. It came down to the final play of the game, which nearly worked out on a lateral from Amon-Ra St. Brown to Jared Goff. However, St. Brown was called for offensive pass interference, negating the score.

The Lions’ defense is in shambles right now, as they go to the bottom of the depth chart for bodies in the secondary. This was expected to be a strong safety core with Kirby Joseph and Brian Branch. They’re both absent, which has left a gaping hole for quarterbacks to exploit.

However, the Vikings are starting Brosmer, who I have little faith in. The former New Hampshire and Minnesota product has thrown for 220 yards and four interceptions in six games. With an abysmal 41.1 QB rating, Brosmer is having issues passing against the air, so the Lions’ weakness in the secondary will be hidden. He will also have to do it with a banged up offensive line and backfield.

Expect Goff and the Lions to come out firing offensively with their backs against the wall. They third in the league, averaging 379.9 yards per game in 2025-26. Additionally, the Lions have scored 30.1 points per game for a sliver behind the LA Rams. The Vikings’ defense is having a solid year, but I don’t foresee the offense consistently moving the ball with Brosmer.

Lay the points in the Lions’ late-season effort to salvage their season in Minnesota.

NFL Christmas Prediction and Betting Pick: Broncos vs. Chiefs

The Chiefs have already booked their vacation plans and are looking to throw this season in the trash bin. They are eliminated from the playoffs, Patrick Mahomes underwent surgery on a torn ACL and LCL, and Travis Kelce is contemplating retirement.

Like the Cowboys, what motivation do the Chiefs have for showing up on Christmas? They will likely go through the motions once again. Last week was the lowest point of the season for the Chiefs, as they fell to the Titans in a 26-9 final at Nissan Stadium in Tennessee.

Meanwhile, the Broncos are coming off a poor performance in a 34-20 defeat against the Jacksonville Jaguars. At 12-3 and looking to clinch the NFC North title, the Broncos’ incentive to play better is much higher. The defense was all out of sorts, and people are questioning whether they’re for real.

The Broncos have a perfect opportunity to bounce back against a Chiefs squad that doesn’t have a quarterback. In another Christmas Day special with a backup quarterback, the Chiefs are expected to lean on Chris Oladokun under center. The former South Dakota State product made his first pass in the NFL last week in the loss to the Titans.

He replaced Gardner Minshew, who went down with a knee injury. Throwing Oladokun into the fire against a Broncos’ defense that needs a bounce back isn’t going to go well. The Chiefs’ defense can only do so much to keep this game close. Eventually the dam will break on the Chiefs.

Expect the Broncos’ defense to put on a clinic, while Bo Nix does just enough to put points on the board. It’s a lot of points, but the Broncos should cover in a blowout for your 2025 NFL Christmas picks.

Team NFL Christmas Day Games Prop Bets

Leading online bookmakers Bovada and Lucky Rebel have various Thursday Night Football prop bets and markets for the rest of the Christmas card. Let’s delve into my top team props to open Week 17:

Total Touchdowns (DAL/WSH): Over 5.5 (-135)

  • Over 5.5 (-135)
  • Under 5.5 (+105)

In what should be a high-scoring football game, expect the Cowboys and Commanders to get into a small duel in Washington. The Commanders are going down the depth chart to find a quarterback, but they should find yards against a Cowboys’ defense that cant’s stop anyone.

The Cowboys are dead last in the NFL against the pass. That should bode well for the Commanders’ passing game. No, they aren’t going to dice up the Cowboys for 400 yards, but dinking and dunking down the field should be successful.

Meanwhile, I have confidence in the Cowboys running the ball strongly. The Commanders have allowed 141 yards per game, for 29th in the NFL. The secondary is 26th in the league, with 241.7 yards allowed per matchup. Note that Washington has allowed 3.1 touchdowns per game, while Dallas conceded 3.6 per game heading into Christmas.

Over 5.5 touchdowns is one of the best 2025 Christmas Day props in the NFL.

Winning Margin: Detroit Lions by 7-12 Points (+320)

The Lions are likely to edge away to cover the six points. It likely results in a 10-point win with Brosmer getting the start for the Vikings. I’m not discarding the fact that the Lions are down a practice squad secondary.

Brosmer should manage to make a couple of plays and not allow the scoreboard to get out of hand. Also, the Vikings’ defense has shown life this season. That should keep the game within reach to an extent, but the Lions have too much firepower offensively.

The Lions should chip away and wear down on the Vikings to win by just over seven points. In short, the Lions by 7-12 points on the win margin has value for the 2025 Christmas Day prop bets.

Best NFL Christmas Player Props This Week

In addition to team props, consider adding a few NFL Christmas Day player prop bets to your card! There are a few plays that have caught my attention, so let’s analyze these props and Thursday Night Football picks below.

Total Passing Yards: Dak Prescott (DAL) Over 269.5 (-115)

  • Over 269.5 (-115)
  • Under 269.5 (-115)

The Cowboys’ quarterback should be in for a strong stat line against the Commanders. It should be a competitive game in the NFC East, but Dak Prescott is likely to pass for miles in this one.

Prescott owns a 108.2 QB rating with 30 touchdowns and only five interceptions against the Commanders. He’s thrown more than 279 yards in three of the last five matchups. This Washington secondary is amongst the worst he’s played in his career.

Additionally, Prescott has passed for at least 294 yards in four of the previous five games this season. The Commanders are likely to give the Cowboys a fight, but Prescott will at least show up to play. I recommend siding with the over 269.5 yards on Prescott’s passing prop.

The Bet

Prescott Over 269.5 Pass Yds

Total Passing Touchdowns: Jared Goff (DET) Over 1.5 (-135)

  • Over 1.5 (-135)
  • Under 1.5 (+105)

Although the Lions are hanging on by a thread when it comes to playoff contention, Goff is having another solid year. Goff has passed for 4,034 yards, 2 touchdowns, and five interceptions.

There is blame to go around, but Goff doesn’t deserve any of the criticism. He’s been in hot form recently as well. Goff has tossed six touchdowns over the last two games, with three in each game against the Rams and Steelers.

Additionally, Goff has struck for at least two touchdowns in four of the Lions’ previous five games. The Vikings have a tough secondary, but Goff will put up at least two touchdowns on the board to his array of dangerous weapons.

Goff over 1.5 touchdowns passes is a solid look for your NFL Christmas player props today.

Anytime Touchdown: RJ Harvey (DEN) (-110)

The Broncos should roll over the Chiefs, and I like RB RJ Harvey to have a solid performance. Harvey, a second round pick out of UFC in the 2025 NFL Draft, has rushed for 469 yards and seven touchdowns.

His workload has increased drastically as of late. Harvey has galloped for five touchdowns on the ground over the last four games. He’s scored a touchdown in four consecutive games.

The 24-year-old had 10+ rushing attempts in four of his last five games. This was an increase from none in six prior matchups! So, Harvey’s anytime touchdown is a solid option as one of the best Thursday Night Football player prop bets.

NFL Christmas Day Parlay for Week 17

To wrap up your NFL Christmas betting card, consider adding a parlay to your selections because there is strong value on the three player props at Lucky Rebel.

In short, I recommend Prescott over 269.5 passing yards, Goff over 1.5 touchdown passes, and Harvey anytime touchdown in a parlay. If all three bets hit, there is a tidy payout of +521 to collect.

  • Prescott: Over 269.5 Passing Yards
  • Goff: Over 1.5 TD Passes
  • Harvey: Anytime Touchdown

NFL Christmas Day Betting Summary

The Sports Geek is excited for the Week 17 card with our best NFL Christmas bets and TNF predictions! Do you like what you see out of my picks?

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