Fantasy football breakout candidates for each NFC team: Michael Penix, George Pickens and more

Fantasy football breakouts — everyone loves them. Identifying and drafting the right breakout candidate can give your roster a massive ADP win and propel your team toward championship glory. These players are often under the radar or underpriced in drafts for the wrong reasons. Every league has “wait-and-see” drafters who eschew these profiles for so-called safer players who simply put up stats in seasons past. But betting on a breakout candidate who hits can be a fantasy football cheat code, and embracing unrealized upside remains one of the sharpest edges in the game.

One breakout candidate is valuable, but how about 16 of them?

Here is each NFC team’s best bet to become a fantasy football breakout in 2025.

Arizona Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison

Harrison failed to deliver on sky-high expectations last season. Drafted at the Round 1-2 turn in many leagues ahead of his rookie season, he finished as the WR39 in PPG (11.6) and was a massive disappointment.

The vibes this offseason are much stronger, with beat reporters and the team expecting a second-year leap. Improved self-scouting, a more consistent role, and occasional low aDOT usage should all help. A true breakout could come simply by turning more of his strong weeks (eight games of 15+ fantasy points last year) into consistent production while cutting down — or eliminating — the duds (eight games with 8 points or fewer).

Atlanta Falcons: QB Michael Penix

Bijan Robinson and Drake London are poised to be among the top skill-position scorers in fantasy football and are being drafted like it. But the season’s storyline for the Falcons could be a breakout performance from Penix. Penix looks ready to thrive under second-year OC Zac Robinson. The Falcons averaged 32 points per game in Penix’s three starts last season. He combines a cannon arm with plus athleticism (sub 4.6 40) that could lend itself to some opportunistic scrambling. With plenty of indoor games and surrounded by elite weapons in a Sean McVay-like system, Penix could be one of the best QB values at his ADP price tag of QB21.

Carolina Panthers: WR Tetairoa McMillan

At least one rookie wide receiver has finished as a top-six PPR scorer in four of the past five seasons. This year, the best bet is Tetairoa McMillan. The Panthers made “T-Mac” the highest-drafted wide receiver in franchise history, and he’s immediately stepping into a clear path for alpha WR1 usage.

McMillan has steamed up in ADP (third round in NFFC, fourth round in FFPC drafts) for good reason. All indications are that he will lead Carolina in targets and quickly become their offensive focal point. Most projections do not account for his true ceiling, with McMillan having the potential to reach 140-150 targets. He has traits similar to Drake London and could soon deliver similar production.

Chicago Bears: TE Colston Loveland

Two seasons ago, Ben Johnson oversaw Sam LaPorta’s precedent-breaking, TE1-overall rookie season. This year, he has another high-level rookie with a chance to obliterate his ADP, post high-end numbers and make a LaPorta-like impact. Loveland, the 10th pick in this year’s NFL Draft, combines sharp route-running skills with the ability to churn out yards after the catch. He can make plays in the middle of the field and is a consistent threat in the red zone. If Loveland can overcome teammate target competition, he could hit in a major way.

Dallas Cowboys: WR George Pickens

Pickens can become this season’s Tee Higgins, a WR2 who puts up big numbers and thrives in a pass-happy offense despite the presence of an alpha WR1. With CeeDee Lamb in the Ja’Marr Chase role, Pickens should see plenty of spike weeks and consistent usage in his first season with the Cowboys.

After two up-and-down years, Pickens finds himself in the best offensive ecosystem of his career and is paired with the most talented quarterback he’s played with in Dak Prescott. With a lack of firepower at running back, Pickens has a clear weekly path to being Dallas’ No. 2 option. Expect career-highs across the board and for him to easily top last season’s modest touchdown total (5).

Detroit Lions: WR Jameson Williams

Williams already had what looked like a breakout in 2024, finishing with 1,000+ receiving yards and averaging 14.2 PPG. But Lions OC John Morton has made it clear: He thinks Jamo is just getting started.

“It’s going to be a breakout year for him. I can’t wait,” Morton said this offseason. Expect Williams to see an expanded route tree and an increase in targets (only 91 in 2024). All signs point to a career-best campaign.

Green Bay Packers: WR Matthew Golden

Golden is an easy bet to break out this season. He has jaw-dropping speed (4.29 40), with outstanding route running and plus separation skills. He also has a clear pathway to being Green Bay’s WR1 from Day 1. Last season, the Packers’ pass volume took a significant hit from their 2023 numbers, but if they are slightly more balanced this year, Golden could be one of the most undervalued players available in the WR3 range. Green Bay made Golden the first wide receiver the team selected in the first round of the NFL draft since 2002 — they will want a return on investment and will get it.

Los Angeles Rams: TE Terrance Ferguson

Unlike other players in this article, a Ferguson breakout may take some time and would most likely occur in the second half of the season. He missed the Rams’ first two preseason games but appears healthy heading into Week 1. The Rams had a first-round grade on Ferguson in the 2025 NFL Draft and were ecstatic to land him, with Sean McVay comparing him to Chris Cooley and Travis Kelce.

Look for Ferguson’s role to expand as the season progresses, with the athletic rookie becoming more involved in the offense. He can deliver spike-week performances and take advantage of favorable coverages with defenses focused on Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

Minnesota Vikings: RB Jordan Mason

Looking for this season’s surprise RB to hit double-digit rushing touchdowns? Mason has the profile and talent to thrive in his first year with the Vikings. Last season, he came out red hot filling in for an injured Christian McCaffrey and delivering three RB1 (top 12) weekly finishes in the first month. He tied for fifth among all RBs with nine runs of 20+ yards, and 24.2% of his carries went for first downs.

This year, Mason can extend that efficiency over a full season. Aaron Jones will remain a key part of the offense, but Mason offers the perfect combination of affordable ADP (RB28), a valuable weekly role and high-level contingent upside. If Jones misses time, Mason has weekly RB1 potential.

New Orleans Saints: WR Chris Olave

I cheated on this one. Olave is hardly a breakout candidate after posting two top-25 WR finishes in his first two seasons as a Saint. But following an injury-riddled third year in which he played only eight games, he profiles more as a bounce-back candidate or post-hype sleeper than a true breakout.

In both 2022 and 2023, Olave recorded at least a 23% target share, a 39% air yards share, and a 30% first-read rate (per Fantasy Points Data). If he returns to those numbers in a Kellen Moore-run offense — and stays healthy — he has every chance to smash his Round 7 ADP in PPR drafts.

New York Giants: TE Theo Johnson

Malik Nabers is a legit challenger to finish as the WR1 overall, and Tyrone Tracy is the Giants’ starting running back, but another second-year player — Theo Johnson — can also make an impact this season, and a potentially bigger one than expected for fantasy purposes. According to RAS scores, Johnson was one of the most athletic TEs ever tested, with a 9.93 out of 10 — the ninth highest out of 1,199 TEs to test. Johnson has an opportunity to be an every-down player and can put up strong TE2 numbers.

Philadelphia Eagles: RB Will Shipley

Shipley is under the radar right now, but he is one of the more valuable handcuffs to roster in fantasy due to Philadelphia’s overall offensive strength and elite line play. He will also fill Kenneth Gainwell’s vacated role in the two-minute offense, a role Shipley should thrive in due to his high-level pass-catching ability (85 catches in three seasons at Clemson). If you draft Saquon Barkley, strongly consider handcuffing him with Shipley. If Barkley misses time, Shipley would be a weekly top-15 play at the RB position.

San Francisco: WR Ricky Pearsall

Pearsall is low-hanging fruit when identifying breakout candidates at wide receiver. The 2024 first-round pick closed last season with back-to-back games of 18+ fantasy points. He has elite athleticism and blends traits that made Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel so effective in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

With nearly every 49ers receiver dealing with injuries (Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, Jordan Watkins, Jacob Cowing) and Demarcus Robinson suspended for three games, Pearsall has emerged as Brock Purdy’s clear WR1. He could get off to a red-hot start and carry that momentum into a true breakout season.

Seattle Seahawks: RB Zach Charbonnet

Charbonnet finished as the RB30 in PPG last season but looks to be in store for much more. He had three top-eight RB weekly finishes, filling in for the injured Kenneth Walker multiple times and providing high-end production to fantasy managers. In games where he played 70% of the snaps or more, Charbonnet averaged 20.92 PPG. He has two-way ability (76 catches over his first two seasons) and can absorb a high amount of volume.

Walker remains the lead back in Seattle but has missed a good portion of training camp, and Charbonnet has been very impressive in his place. Head coach Mike Macdonald recently said Charbonnet “is a stud.” His play has done enough to push this offense toward more of a weekly RB split under new OC Klint Kubiak than at any point last season under Ryan Grubb. If Walker ends up missing time, Charbonnet has true league-winning fantasy potential.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: WR Emeka Egbuka

Egbuka has been the talk of the summer and one of the biggest ADP risers in all of fantasy. He was selected with the 19th overall pick — an eerily similar range to multiple recent fantasy studs, including Brian Thomas (24th pick, 2024), Justin Jefferson (22nd pick, 2020), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (20th pick, 2023).

The early narrative surrounding Egbuka suggested target competition would box him out, making him more of a 2026 bet than a player who could crack lineups in 2025. But dominant performances in OTAs and training camp have led to overwhelmingly positive reports and glowing quotes from everyone in and around the building, including the Bucs coaching staff, beat reporters and players.

With Jalen McMillan sidelined for at least the first half of the season due to a neck injury and Chris Godwin out until at least October, Egbuka has a clear runway for early production. He can be dominant in the slot but has also shown the versatility to line up all over the field. Egbuka could ascend rapidly right out of the gate and has the talent and pedigree to lead the Bucs in receptions this season.

Washington Commanders: RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt

JCM, a.k.a. “Bill,” has quickly become a household name as the late-summer ADP riser at the running back position. The 2025 Shrine Bowl MVP had an unusual college journey: from Alabama State to New Mexico (where he scored 17 touchdowns), then an Ole Miss commitment, and finally playing just one game at Arizona. Washington selected him in Round 7 of this year’s NFL Draft, and his performance in OTAs and training camp gave the Commanders enough confidence to trade away veteran Brian Robinson to San Francisco.

JCM has already evoked memories of late Day 3/UDFA success stories like James Robinson, Phillip Lindsay, Chris Carson and — yes, Commanders fans — Alfred Morris. Betting on seventh-rounders usually ends badly, but I’m in on this one. Adam Peters is going full Billy Beane, and Washington looks set to “Moneyball” the RB position this season with JCM leading the charge, complemented by a healthy dose of 30-year-old Austin Ekeler and some Chris Rodriguez. If Bill becomes the next Butler (IYKYK), he might emerge as a fantasy football folk hero.

(Photo of Michael Penix: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)